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Post by magellan on Jul 20, 2012 3:24:37 GMT
Questions from an amateur: . Does it matter if all the Arctic sea ice melts? . If it does, what would it indicate? . What would be the global flow-on effect? ratty, Take a look at the DMI site on Arctic temperatures ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.phpNote how, clicking on various years, the summer temperatures always stay close to zero degrees C (the freezing point of water; 273 deg Kelvin.) This is because it takes heat to melt ice and as long as there is ice in the Arctic Sea the surface temperature will stay close to zero degrees C through the summer as the sea ice absorbs heat from the air. If the Arctic Sea becomes seasonally ice free the surface atmospheric temperatures in this region will increase significantly. The broader affects of such a change are a matter of speculation, but one concern is that such a change in surface temperatures could be to accelerate melting of the ice sheets in Greenland and the Canadian Archipelago, which are currently constrained by atmospheric temperatures. Take a look at the DMI site on Arctic temperatures ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
Note how, clicking on various years, the summer temperatures always stay close to zero degrees C (the freezing point of water; 273 deg Kelvin.) From one amateur to another, you don't know what you're talking about, with all due respect of course. Before history of the planet began in 1979 when Arctic ice extent was anomalously high and in school we were told an ice age was coming:           |
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Post by thermostat on Jul 20, 2012 4:18:01 GMT
ratty, Take a look at the DMI site on Arctic temperatures ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.phpNote how, clicking on various years, the summer temperatures always stay close to zero degrees C (the freezing point of water; 273 deg Kelvin.) This is because it takes heat to melt ice and as long as there is ice in the Arctic Sea the surface temperature will stay close to zero degrees C through the summer as the sea ice absorbs heat from the air. If the Arctic Sea becomes seasonally ice free the surface atmospheric temperatures in this region will increase significantly. The broader affects of such a change are a matter of speculation, but one concern is that such a change in surface temperatures could be to accelerate melting of the ice sheets in Greenland and the Canadian Archipelago, which are currently constrained by atmospheric temperatures. Take a look at the DMI site on Arctic temperatures ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
Note how, clicking on various years, the summer temperatures always stay close to zero degrees C (the freezing point of water; 273 deg Kelvin.) From one amateur to another, you don't know what you're talking about, with all due respect of course. Before history of the planet began in 1979 when Arctic ice extent was anomalously high and in school we were told an ice age was coming: Magellan wrote, "Before history of the planet began in 1979 when Arctic ice extent was anomalously high and in school we were told an ice age was coming:" Megellan then proceeded to post a number of images that demonstrated the technical point I was making. Again, the key point is that summer atmospheric temperatures over the Arctic Sea are consistently close to 0 deg C, and will remain so, as long as ice covers the Arctic Sea. This phenomenon is driven by physics regarding the change of state from a solid (ice) to a liquid (water). This change of state requires the transfer of heat. As long as ice exists in the Arctic, the surface air temperature will remain close to zero deg C. The implication is that sea surface temperatures over the Arctic Sea are not the key factor regarding the observed Arctic Sea Ice melt. Given that it takes heat to melt ice, (and the data shows that the ice has melted) the heat responsible for the observed meltmust have entered the system via some other mechanism(s) (ie. not Arctic Sea surface air temparature). |
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Post by thermostat on Jul 20, 2012 4:45:43 GMT
Sorry for this extra large image I can't see a way to make it smaller The comparison with 2007 looks omminous for the 2012 minimum Look at all that thin ice! Unless there is a dramatic change we can expect record lows this year! Neilhamp, Sorry for deleting the image, but it was quite huge. I think your point has been made. ie. The ice is melting. Among the Arctic Sea Ice Junkies people are now talking about the alternative concepts of a "Black Swan" as opposed to a "Dragon-King": Dragon-Kings, Black Swans and the Prediction of Crises arxiv.org/abs/0907.4290/Briefly, a 'Black Swan' is a 'one-off' event in contrast to a 'Dragon-King' which is a harbinger of things to come. Regarding the Arctic Sea Ice the question is then what to make of 2007 and subsequent observations, especially the present. |
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Post by neilhamp on Jul 20, 2012 7:37:26 GMT
Thermostat, lets hope Kevin spots our concern over large images
It would be helpful if it was possible to resize them
With reference to Black Swans, you may be interested to know there is a small place called Dawlish in England. It is famous for its flock of Black swans. They are certainly not a one off occurence in Dawlish.
I was hoping for an increase in ice extent in the Arctic. My forecast was 4.58.
It looks like the Black Swan has moved its breeding ground from Dawlish to the Artic
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Post by thermostat on Jul 22, 2012 2:04:27 GMT
Thermostat, lets hope Kevin spots our concern over large images It would be helpful if it was possible to resize them With reference to Black Swans, you may be interested to know there is a small place called Dawlish in England. It is famous for its flock of Black swans. They are certainly not a one off occurence in Dawlish. I was hoping for an increase in ice extent in the Arctic. My forecast was 4.58. It looks like the Black Swan has moved its breeding ground from Dawlish to the Artic The observation that various species have been shifting their ranges northward is one to note. |
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 22, 2012 3:00:41 GMT
thermostat:
The shifting northward of species has been ongoing for centuries. This is most certainly not a new phenomina.
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Post by thermostat on Jul 22, 2012 3:44:40 GMT
Related to the Sea Ice Minimum, the July descent has now responded to the low pressure systems that have been dominating the arctic weather pattern. The significant IJIS extent loss in the past week was a suprise under these conditions, where instead observers expected a substantial change in the rate of Sea Ice Extent melt. Looking forward, the predicted weather pattern is fairly 'nondescript'.
For myself, after predicting a substantial reduction in rate and being wrong, I'm remaining silent about the implications of the present weather forecast... at this time at least.
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Post by thermostat on Jul 22, 2012 4:01:50 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 22, 2012 7:31:00 GMT
thermostat:
There were implications in the forcast that indicated the ice melt would not slow.
I have not changed what I, at this time, percieve the area to be come September. I still think it will be slightly below 4.0 as the patterns that started last winter have not abated.
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Post by icefisher on Jul 22, 2012 13:44:52 GMT
Sorry for this extra large image I can't see a way to make it smaller The comparison with 2007 looks omminous for the 2012 minimum Look at all that thin ice! Unless there is a dramatic change we can expect record lows this year!  Neilhamp, quote my post here and you will see the modifications you can do to images to resize them. Basically its to add "width=xxx height=xxx" inside the initial brackets for the "img" command. |
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Post by icefisher on Jul 22, 2012 14:26:12 GMT
thermostat: The shifting northward of species has been ongoing for centuries. This is most certainly not a new phenomina. so have extinctions. one of the most wonderful tours one can make here in Los Angeles is a visit to the George C. Page Museum (aka La Brea tar pits - since La Brea means "the tar" in spanish its a bit redundant "the tar tar pits.). It is near downtown in a district called the Miracle Mile just to the west of downtown. Here tarpit deposits and fossils from 10 to 15,000 years ago have been excavated. Its an amazing display of fauna all no longer here. . . .dire wolves, saber-toothed cats, mammoths, giant sloths, short faced bears, and dozens of others. They have excavated thousands of animals as the tarpits were a particularly rich death trap for animals. At least partial remains of over 4,000 dire wolves have come out of it testifying to opportunistic feeding by the wolves on animals stuck in the tar resulting in themselves becoming trapped. The dire wolf was a wolf much larger than our current grey wolf with a bigger head and bigger teeth that is believed to have preyed on much larger species. Its now extinct. One of the fascinating displays is an ongoing excavation display with observation windows and a number of people continuing daily labor to unearth bones, cleaning and sorting them. What is impressive is these fossils are early Holocene/late Pleistocene just preceding our interglacial and the arrival of mankind in the area. What you get out of it is a sense of complete change in a relatively short period of time, not the millions of years we are led to think of change in that comes from our educations focusing on the dinosaurs of millions of years ago. www.tarpits.org/la-brea-tar-pits/timeline |
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Post by throttleup on Jul 23, 2012 12:06:47 GMT
"I flattened and overlaid the Fowler week 29 2007 map (red) on the current NSIDC map (green) and guess what – there is a lot more ice in 2012 than there was on the same date in 2007." stevengoddard.wordpress.com/
It's not all gone yet. (for those who worry about such things...)
Barrow Alaska, 22 July 2012: |
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Post by thermostat on Jul 24, 2012 4:22:42 GMT
The obvious difference of 2012 compared with 2007 is East vs West. In 2007 the melt grew from the West. In 2012, the melt is growing from the East.
Still, it takes heat to melt ice. In 2007 a whole bunch of heat came north through the Bering Strait. In 2012 the question is how much heat has come north from the Atlantic, and how far north might it penetrate?
In any event it appears that much of that ice on the west side is still doomed, given that it has become so thin.
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Post by Pooh on Jul 24, 2012 4:52:49 GMT
Thermostat, lets hope Kevin spots our concern over large images It would be helpful if it was possible to resize them
UBBC code is below. It is not required to put the image in a table. | [img src="http://somesite/image.jpg"]
or
[img src="http://somesite/image.jpg" width=### height=###] | Inserts an image into a Post or PM.
Image sizes can be changed using the “width=†and “height=†parameters together. |
I should add: If you use the "image" tag (from the add tags bar), you can then edit the UBBC code to add ' width=### height=### ' just before the first ' ] '. ' ### ' is the pixel value you want displayed. |
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Post by thermostat on Jul 26, 2012 2:51:33 GMT
Thermostat, lets hope Kevin spots our concern over large images It would be helpful if it was possible to resize them
UBBC code is below. It is not required to put the image in a table. | [img src="http://somesite/image.jpg"]
or
[img src="http://somesite/image.jpg" width=### height=###] | Inserts an image into a Post or PM.
Image sizes can be changed using the “width=†and “height=†parameters together. |
I should add: If you use the "image" tag (from the add tags bar), you can then edit the UBBC code to add ' width=### height=### ' just before the first ' ] '. ' ### ' is the pixel value you want displayed. Pooh, Thanks for the useful tips. I've had this sizing issue as well. |
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