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Post by flearider on Jul 2, 2014 12:50:45 GMT
build up of ice stronger currents ..you will see massive cold flows heading up to the northern hemisphere like last yr .. asia bottom of japan and off the coast of newfoundland .. it's kept the oceans cold this yr next will be worst .. polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/rtg_high_res/
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Post by cuttydyer on Jul 3, 2014 6:38:09 GMT
Interesting essay by Frank Lanser @ WUWT: Another Antarctic sea ice record set – but excuses aboundReality is that we right now have an area matching the size of Greenland of extra sea ice floating around Antarctica. The nightmare for the global warming believers is if the growing ice around Antarctica should be linked to cooling, and so: 1) Some Re-analysis papers and more have been made showing that the ocean around Antarctica is not cooling (as original data suggests) but is in stead warming fast. 2) Several mechanisms have been suggested to argue how come ice can grow so much faster when in fact the water is supposed to have warmed up. Therefore in the following I will first (part 1) go through some data sources to evaluate if it’s cooling or not in the area of ice-formation around Antarctica, and then (part 2) I will go through the most frequent attempts to explain faster ice formation in supposedly warmer waters. PART 1: ARE THE OCEANS AROUND ANTARCTICA WARMING OR COOLING? Fig 2 The red box: I have inserted the red box 73S-63S 220W-50E because this area will be used in the following to evaluate the situation in the ice forming waters around Antarctica. NOAA use a base period approx. 1983-1995 and they report that the waters around Antarctica today are colder than normal. In fact this is the case most of the time in the last decade in NOAAs graphics, especially in the zone where extra winter ice is being formed. Fig 3 CMC Canada use base period 1995-2009, but still we see temperatures of the ice forming waters near Antarctica are lower than normal. SST NCDC ERSST v3b2 Fig 4 I use the KNMI online climate explorer to get data from the “red box” area 73S-63S 220W-50E, see fig 2. HadISST1: Fig 5 Fine agreement with NSDC. TAO buoys surface air temperature: Fig 6 Again, Cooling. The SST´s and to some degree surface air suggest a drop in temperatures especially around 2008 TLT, Air temperature lower troposphere from RSS: Fig 7 Data suggest some cooling, certainly not warming. Thus it seems that recent years for the area of ice formation around Antarctica show: A: Decrease in Sea surface temperatures B: Decrease in Air temperatures C: Growth in Sea ice These observations are in compliance, I´d say generally in science you can hardly demand more solid evidence to support any conclusion. * * * It’s getting colder around Antarctica and so the ice is growing * * * PART 2: MORE ICE CREATION IN STILL WARMER WATERS? Link: wattsupwiththat.com/2014/07/02/another-antarctic-sea-ice-record-set-but-excuses-abound/#more-112348____________________________________________________________________ Certainly looks cold down there to me: Link: earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-343.20,-85.36,512
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 4, 2014 1:08:14 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 6, 2014 18:28:01 GMT
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Post by flearider on Jul 8, 2014 0:43:43 GMT
ok if we just take a look at the north and south Atlantic ocean I see some disturbing things in the north we have remnants of last yrs Antarctic melt still moving up .. in the south we have a very cold build up of water ..( but this runs round the entire Antarctic coast) but the equator is still cool ..this being a small ocean theres a greater effect from last yr ..
now imagine the melt of a even bigger Antarctic (http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_stddev_timeseries.png) masses of cold to the west of Africa next yr it will follow the same path .. along the coast of peru across the equator and up well near japan .as we see this yr (http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom_new.gif).. plz tell me I'm mad and you can't see this happening .. these are deep water jets so theres really no readings as such ..
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Post by Ratty on Jul 8, 2014 11:51:55 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Jul 8, 2014 21:05:17 GMT
So the 'research' was playing with computer models. If the real world is looked at - it does not appear to be following these models. The winds in particular seem to be far more latitudinal than meridonal ( Earth Winds )and the ice is increasing all the time - unlikely with warm water surrounding it.
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Post by graywolf on Jul 9, 2014 19:46:57 GMT
I'm glad in this age of super computers that we are being advised not to utilise the advance and rather sit and wait until something occurs before declaring " Oooh! that's what happens......"
We have measured the increase in the circumpolars since the early 80's and it has been tied into both increased temps and ozone loss over Antarctica. Due to the length of the observations it would appear prudent to now incorporate that which was initially 'an anomaly' into existing models?
We know that the trades have also increased their speed due to the global changes ( surely nobody thinks you can alter the atmosphere and not see things 'change' do they?).
Anyhow why folk cannot understand that strong winds drive water faster escapes me? The fact that the water is up to 4c warmer than the water that used to sit in front of Shelf makes it quite a simple leap in logic to arrive at the "it will melt faster now!" moment?
Seeing as we have also logged the incursion of these warmer Southern Ocean waters into the coastal regions of the peninsula now as far as Ross.
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 9, 2014 20:44:38 GMT
graywolf: Modeling is a great thing, and extremely useful. I think what most folks question, is the validity of the modeled output, using it as a forecast.
Currently, the track record of the GCM's is so so. I do hope it continues to improve, as one would expect.
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Post by dontgetoutmuch on Jul 9, 2014 20:47:13 GMT
Graywolf,
Do you think any of the people modeling the melting of the Antarctic have noticed that reality is moving in the opposite direction?
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Post by icefisher on Jul 9, 2014 22:28:38 GMT
I'm glad in this age of super computers that we are being advised not to utilise the advance and rather sit and wait until something occurs before declaring " Oooh! that's what happens......" Don't be so moronic Graywolf. The number of transistors a computer has in total or by the square inch makes not one iota of difference to the sum total of our knowledge. Further in this age of "no climate student/scientist left behind" we now routinely confer PhD's on any moron that sticks around long enough. We have measured the increase in the circumpolars since the early 80's and it has been tied into both increased temps and ozone loss over Antarctica. Due to the length of the observations it would appear prudent to now incorporate that which was initially 'an anomaly' into existing models? We know that the trades have also increased their speed due to the global changes ( surely nobody thinks you can alter the atmosphere and not see things 'change' do they?). Absolutely not Graywolf. However, the amount of change we are talking by volume is all of one 25th of one percent (.04%). So when looking at the physics of the atmosphere it would be very hard to deny that the average surface temperature would not rise by all of .004 degrees centigrade. Now before you misread the above, I am not claiming thats all the warming that would occur. But its all that one should directly infer from your rather childish appeal to a strawman. "Surely nobody thinks you can alter the atmosphere and not see things 'change' do they?" Anyhow why folk cannot understand that strong winds drive water faster escapes me? The fact that the water is up to 4c warmer than the water that used to sit in front of Shelf makes it quite a simple leap in logic to arrive at the "it will melt faster now!" moment? Thats a lot better logic! But on the grander scale of things it is also true the planet surface if its 4 degrees warmer; the planet is going to cool a lot faster than what any non-moron scientist would attribute to additional warmth currently resulting from CO2. So you can bet your farm thats only a temporary phenomena.
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Post by cuttydyer on Jul 13, 2014 6:36:32 GMT
Courtesy of WUWT: Meteo France report "Coldest Antarctic June Ever Recorded"Antarctica continues to defy the global warming script, with a report from Meteo France, that June this year was the coldest Antarctic June ever recorded, at the French Antarctic Dumont d’Urville Station. According to the press release, during June this year, the average temperature was -22.4c (-8.3F), 6.6c (11.9F) lower than normal. This is the coldest June ever recorded at the station, and almost the coldest monthly average ever – only September 1953 was colder, with a recorded average temperature of -23.5c (-10.3F). June this year also broke the June daily minimum temperature record, with a new record low of -34.9c (-30.8F). Other unusual features of the June temperature record are an unusual excess of sunlight hours (11.8 hours rather than the normal 7.4 hours), and unusually light wind conditions. Dumont d’Urville Station has experienced ongoing activity since 1956. According to the Meteo France record, there is no other weather station for 1000km in any direction. www.meteofrance.fr/web/comprendre-la-meteo/actualites?articleId=8990197h/t IceAgeNow Translated version of the Meteo France page:- translate.google.com/translate?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.meteofrance.fr%2Fweb%2Fcomprendre-la-meteo%2Factualites%3FarticleId%3D8990197
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 13, 2014 13:56:21 GMT
Maybe it isn't AGW that is causing the growth of ice in Antarctica after all?
Who would have thought that cold temps create ice. I thought it was warm temps that create ice?
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Post by flearider on Jul 16, 2014 23:18:04 GMT
Antarctic, water flows around the Earth in the great circumpolar current. This is the greatest current in the ocean, about twice as big as the Gulf Stream It involves not only surface waters, but reaches several miles down now look at the pic black lines are the currants .. you can see how the cold is travelling .with another weak/cool equator the cold will again cross over .. except this time there will be more of it .. with the Antarctic reaching prob 19-21k mill sq km it will drive/cool the oceans ..and as you can see the atlantic equator is already cooled enough now the thing I'm worried about ..you have 2 coolers each at the end of lets say a swimming pool with warm water produced in the middle ..with the diminishing warmth how long does it take to freeze ? now remember one of the coolers seems to be working overtime ..
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Post by cuttydyer on Jul 17, 2014 6:54:30 GMT
Antarctic, water flows around the Earth in the great circumpolar current. This is the greatest current in the ocean, about twice as big as the Gulf Stream It involves not only surface waters, but reaches several miles down now look at the pic black lines are the currants .. you can see how the cold is travelling .with another weak/cool equator the cold will again cross over .. except this time there will be more of it .. with the Antarctic reaching prob 19-21k mill sq km it will drive/cool the oceans ..and as you can see the atlantic equator is already cooled enough now the thing I'm worried about ..you have 2 coolers each at the end of lets say a swimming pool with warm water produced in the middle ..with the diminishing warmth how long does it take to freeze ? now remember one of the coolers seems to be working overtime .. Flearider, it's a thought provoking post. Have you played around with the current & SSTA settings within "earth"? - Allows you to overlay SSTA on ocean currents: Link: earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/equirectangular
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