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Post by dontgetoutmuch on Oct 10, 2012 16:56:14 GMT
Just one more comment; it is important to make a distiction between the recent increase in Antarctic Sea Ice maximum extent and the loss of ice mass from the Antartcic Ice sheet. These two contemporary events are being driven by interconnected, but distinct physical processes. Added heat is melting the ice sheet while changes in wind strength and patterns are expanding maximum sea ice extent. Actually the Antarctic Ice Sheet is GAINING mass. This has been consistently, repeatedly demonstrated over the past two decades. Of course this is a problem for all of those folks who have predicted exactly the opposite. The solution? The same "adjustments" to the data that they think make them look less stupid as when it comes to their predictions of accelerated sea level rise. They fudge the number with an unmeasurable adjustment. This miracle adjustment is loved by alarmists everywhere. Model not matching reality? Adjust reality to meet your model by adding or subtracting a glacial isostatic adjustment. This number can be changed to suit any need. Sea level's not rising fast enough? Pull any number out of thin air, add or subtract to reality and presto, your model fits. You need less Antarctic Ice for your prediction, and reality just doesn't cooperate? Just subtract the number you need from your measurements and call that number the glacial isostatic adjustment. Who can prove you wrong? It also makes Julian Fries.
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Post by dontgetoutmuch on Oct 10, 2012 17:21:21 GMT
Added heat is melting the ice sheet while changes in wind strength and patterns are expanding maximum sea ice extent. Thermostat. Please look up Cognitive Dissonance, and Occams' Razor, and see how they might apply to your position. Or you could say this with me. The INCREASING amount of ice on the Antarctic ice sheet is expanding the maximum sea ice extent.
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Post by magellan on Oct 10, 2012 23:45:18 GMT
Thermostat, what do you make of this? journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00068.1Abstract
We examine the annual cycle and trends in Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) for 18 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 models that were run with historical forcing for the 1850s to 2005. Many of the models have an annual SIE cycle that differs markedly from that observed over the last 30 years. The majority of models have too small a SIE at the minimum in February, while several of the models have less than two thirds of the observed SIE at the September maximum. In contrast to the satellite data, which exhibits a slight increase in SIE, the mean SIE of the models over 1979 - 2005 shows a decrease in each month, with the greatest multi-model mean percentage monthly decline of 13.6% dec-1 in February and the greatest absolute loss of ice of -0.40 × 106 km2 dec-1 in September. The models have very large differences in SIE over 1860 – 2005. Most of the control runs have statistically significant trends in SIE over their full time span and all the models have a negative trend in SIE since the mid-Nineteenth Century. The negative SIE trends in most of the model runs over 1979 - 2005 are a continuation of an earlier decline, suggesting that the processes responsible for the observed increase over the last 30 years are not being simulated correctly. Every time something like this is posted, it goes right over your head. Remember the discussion we had about stratospheric cooling?
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Post by sigurdur on Oct 11, 2012 2:10:13 GMT
What is good in all of this is that finally someone is examing the models and realizing that they need a good bit of work. FINALLY..........
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Post by throttleup on Oct 11, 2012 12:19:04 GMT
Hold on now!
This just in... Global Warming Makes MORE Antarctic Ice!By SETH BORENSTEIN AP Science Writer | 10 Oct 2012 The ice goes on seemingly forever in a white pancake-flat landscape, stretching farther than ever before. And yet in this confounding region of the world, that spreading ice may be a cockeyed signal of man-made climate change, scientists say. This is Antarctica, the polar opposite of the Arctic. While the North Pole has been losing sea ice over the years, the water nearest the South Pole has been gaining it. Antarctic sea ice hit a record 7.51 million square miles in September. That happened just days after reports of the biggest loss of Arctic sea ice on record. Climate change skeptics have seized on the Antarctic ice to argue that the globe isn't warming and that scientists are ignoring the southern continent because it's not convenient. But scientists say the skeptics are misinterpreting what's happening and why. Shifts in wind patterns and the giant ozone hole over the Antarctic this time of year - both related to human activity - are probably behind the increase in ice, experts say. This subtle growth in winter sea ice since scientists began measuring it in 1979 was initially surprising, they say, but makes sense the more it is studied. "A warming world can have complex and sometimes surprising consequences," researcher Ted Maksym said this week from an Australian research vessel surrounded by Antarctic sea ice. He is with the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts. Many experts agree. Ted Scambos of the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Colorado adds: "It sounds counterintuitive, but the Antarctic is part of the warming as well." And on a third continent, David Vaughan of the British Antarctic Survey says that yes, what's happening in Antarctica bears the fingerprints of man-made climate change. www.msnbc.msn.com/id/49363579Could numerouno be right.... we are all just a bunch of science-denying nutballs?
Let's check with the experts in the field:AR4: “In 20th- and 21st-century simulations, antarctic sea ice cover is projected to decrease more slowly than in the Arctic" www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch10s10-3-2-4.htmlBritish Antarctic Survey: A thaw of Antarctic ice is outpacing predictions by the U.N. climate panel and could in the worst case drive up world sea levels by 2 meters (6 ft) by 2100, a leading expert said on Wednesday. www.reuters.com/article/2007/08/22/environment-climate-antarctica-dc-idUSL2210716920070822Al Gore (Father of Numo & T'stat; Climate Scientist; god): "What happens to the rest of the world as that frozen water is released, at ever increasing rates, as a result of the rising temperatures caused by climate change? [In 1988] Scientists expected that as climate change accelerated, Antarctica would be one of the fastest warming areas of the planet. This prediction has proven true. Since my first trip to Antarctica more than 22 years ago, much has changed. The rate of ice melting has increased." blog.algore.com/2012/01/living_on_thin_ice.html--------------------- So... the experts said it was decreasing due to man-made climate change. Now that the ice is at record levels, they say it's due to man-made climate change. And we're crazy?
I say we pitch in and buy Numerouno a couch.
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Post by magellan on Oct 11, 2012 13:14:22 GMT
Hold on now!
This just in... Global Warming Makes MORE Antarctic Ice!By SETH BORENSTEIN AP Science Writer | 10 Oct 2012 The ice goes on seemingly forever in a white pancake-flat landscape, stretching farther than ever before. And yet in this confounding region of the world, that spreading ice may be a cockeyed signal of man-made climate change, scientists say. This is Antarctica, the polar opposite of the Arctic. While the North Pole has been losing sea ice over the years, the water nearest the South Pole has been gaining it. Antarctic sea ice hit a record 7.51 million square miles in September. That happened just days after reports of the biggest loss of Arctic sea ice on record. Climate change skeptics have seized on the Antarctic ice to argue that the globe isn't warming and that scientists are ignoring the southern continent because it's not convenient. But scientists say the skeptics are misinterpreting what's happening and why. Shifts in wind patterns and the giant ozone hole over the Antarctic this time of year - both related to human activity - are probably behind the increase in ice, experts say. This subtle growth in winter sea ice since scientists began measuring it in 1979 was initially surprising, they say, but makes sense the more it is studied. "A warming world can have complex and sometimes surprising consequences," researcher Ted Maksym said this week from an Australian research vessel surrounded by Antarctic sea ice. He is with the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts. Many experts agree. Ted Scambos of the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Colorado adds: "It sounds counterintuitive, but the Antarctic is part of the warming as well." And on a third continent, David Vaughan of the British Antarctic Survey says that yes, what's happening in Antarctica bears the fingerprints of man-made climate change. www.msnbc.msn.com/id/49363579Could numerouno be right.... we are all just a bunch of science-denying nutballs?
Let's check with the experts in the field:AR4: “In 20th- and 21st-century simulations, antarctic sea ice cover is projected to decrease more slowly than in the Arctic" www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch10s10-3-2-4.htmlBritish Antarctic Survey: A thaw of Antarctic ice is outpacing predictions by the U.N. climate panel and could in the worst case drive up world sea levels by 2 meters (6 ft) by 2100, a leading expert said on Wednesday. www.reuters.com/article/2007/08/22/environment-climate-antarctica-dc-idUSL2210716920070822Al Gore (Father of Numo & T'stat; Climate Scientist; god): "What happens to the rest of the world as that frozen water is released, at ever increasing rates, as a result of the rising temperatures caused by climate change? [In 1988] Scientists expected that as climate change accelerated, Antarctica would be one of the fastest warming areas of the planet. This prediction has proven true. Since my first trip to Antarctica more than 22 years ago, much has changed. The rate of ice melting has increased." blog.algore.com/2012/01/living_on_thin_ice.html--------------------- So... the experts said it was decreasing due to man-made climate change. Now that the ice is at record levels, they say it's due to man-made climate change. And we're crazy?
I say we pitch in and buy Numerouno a couch. Ad Hoc Science Can Explain AnythingThe new normal in climate science is ad hoc science. Contrary to the climate models, Antarctic ice reaches a record high – so the team simply reaches into their bag of sciency sounding explanations related to any of the millions of degrees of freedom in the climate system. If you have no ethics or competency, you can blame all phenomenon on humans – just as their witch-burning predecessors did.
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Post by magellan on Oct 12, 2012 19:48:59 GMT
Can we please dispense with the notion the Antarctic was expected to gain ice? Honestly, AGW promoters are becoming a laughing stock when no matter what happens it's always "consistent with" AGW "theory". Remember this? Hansen and Trenberth ARE the "consensus". www.eenews.net/public/eenewspm/2012/01/20/6The Antarctic voyage is part of a larger campaign to focus attention on the threat climate change poses to the world's ice sheets and glaciers -- a subject Gore highlighted in his 2007 documentary, "An Inconvenient Truth," and at a 2009 conference he convened with Norway's foreign minister, Jonas Gahr Støre.
"This winter we will be talking about Antarctica as part of our 'Living on Thin Ice' campaign which will focus on how people around the globe are being impacted by the melting of the world's ice," Climate Reality Project spokesman Eric Young said. "As part of that effort, we are journeying to Antarctica with our chairman, Vice President Gore, and leading scientists and thinkers to see firsthand how the climate crisis is unfolding." So, the threat is increasing ice? Maybe it is, but that's not what we've been told for the last 25 years.
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Post by sigurdur on Oct 12, 2012 21:00:29 GMT
Ya know, we have to get Mr. Gore to travel to the Arctic. There are claims that Arctic ice area lows are "unprecedented" (Thank you.....LOL).
Gore goes to Antarctica and it sets a new ice record. WEll, if he goes to the Arctic? Will the summer of 2013 low be the highest in the satillite record?
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Post by thermostat on Oct 14, 2012 3:17:06 GMT
Added heat is melting the ice sheet while changes in wind strength and patterns are expanding maximum sea ice extent. Thermostat. Please look up Cognitive Dissonance, and Occams' Razor, and see how they might apply to your position. Or you could say this with me. The INCREASING amount of ice on the Antarctic ice sheet is expanding the maximum sea ice extent. The mass balance of Antarctica is the topic of interest, agreed. I seriously doubt that the southern continent is presently gaining mass. I have not seen credible scientific evidence to support that assertion. Your cognitive dissonance comment is duly noted. Frankly I wonder all the time how various regulars on this forum deal with cognitive dissonance. Regarding the observed increase in maximal southern sea ice extent, nope, it is not directly connected to the concurrent melting of the continental southern ice sheet, but is rather due to persistent changes in weather wind patterns that are spreading out the southern ice at its' maximum. In the south, sea ice and continental ice behave differently.
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Post by icefisher on Oct 14, 2012 12:34:23 GMT
In the south, sea ice and continental ice behave differently.
Right it has to be colder in the south for sea ice to freeze because it doesn't have a halocline like the arctic has.
The arctic halocline no doubt encourages the development of ice except maybe when the halocline is weakening which it may do cyclically with the loss of glacial ice melt flow.
So when the northern continental masses are glaciating the arctic halocline is greatly deprived of freshwater. When stuff is cooling you have more droughts, more temperature extremes, and a lower runoff.
Interesting but as one forum follower here has pointed out these cool dry skies could account for extreme weather events because of the less energy needed to change the temperature of the air. Of course climate science is confused about this because of climate models so badly missing the mark. Its human nature that if you spend a few billion dollars on climate modeling systems everybody earning those dollars are going to first reject their failure as the problem. . . .it has to be those damned TV weathermen who have it all wrong!
So with the arctic ocean starved of freshwater input the freezing temperature of the ocean drops precipitously and more ice melts during the summer than normal.
This at least provides a logical explanation why ARGO found the oceans were cooling subsequent to 2003 while Arctic ice started a robust decline. Cooling oceans, less moisture, less precipitation, growing NH glaciers, disappearing Arctic Halocline, less summer sea ice.
I said here a few months ago its better to watch the maximum extents which have been growing recently. It also has to fight salty water but its more normal for the ice extent to extend into the Atlantic and the Pacific so the maximum extent is not affected nearly as much by changes to the Arctic Halocline.
The coupling between glaciation and sea ice may be virtually discountable in Antarctica because of the wide open mixing of seawater with the world's warm oceans precludes the development of a halocline so that the cooling is registered right away in antarctic sea ice similar to the maximum extent in the Arctic. But ice edges within the Arctic ocean are poor indicators due to the additional system complications.
So it seems the additional geophysical features of the Arctic makes it minimums a poor indicator of what is happening in global climate. It may be a regional anomaly due to the huge geophysical feature in the arctic ocean known as the Arctic Halocline. When and if warming resumes, evaporation increases, precipitation increases, and glaciers start melting again there may be some years of sea ice minimum increases in the Arctic.
Perhaps we are entering a climate cycle that forebodes lower summer minimums as the new normal even while ice sheets are advancing and summer maximum edges move south.
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Post by sigurdur on Oct 14, 2012 14:16:49 GMT
Thermostat: Doesn't make much difference if you don't think Antarctica as a whole is gaining ice mass.
It is, that is what the literature has been showing for some time now.
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Post by sigurdur on Oct 14, 2012 16:23:44 GMT
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ant42
Level 3 Rank
Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 129
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Post by ant42 on Oct 15, 2012 10:45:23 GMT
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Post by thermostat on Oct 18, 2012 6:34:02 GMT
It is particularly interesting that ant42 now suggests that the Antarctic peninsula, of all places is now (suddenly?) gaining mass! The Antarctic Peninsula, for those who have not been closely following this story, is most famous recently as one of the select places on the planet that has experienced the most dramatic and extreme warming in recent history. (the conspicuous demise of various ice shelves is most relevent evidence.) Red Herring? Ever hear that term? that's what this appears to be. To obfuscate. To confuse, deliberately.
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Post by graywolf on Oct 18, 2012 10:47:52 GMT
Have a Pal interviewing Ted Scambos later so have asked for info on how close to Ross the warm bottom waters now are and how he sees any impacts that this warm water will have (once it arrives there ) on the embayment.
Sseeing as the last warm interglacial linked Weddell and Ross it would be interesting to know whether we're about to see the start of this process, on the Roosevelt Island side of the Ross Embaymemnt, once the shelf front becomes unstable?
Thermo, I see Thwaites had another big calve over winter? I wonder if we'll see P.I.G. do the same before chrimbo?
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