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Post by steve on Oct 20, 2012 15:00:48 GMT
Better than trusting a program written by someone who thinks that there has been no global warming for 16 years. The worth of a program is not just from whether it was crafted by experts in programming (which, of course, all the key models were), but whether it provides results that concord with experience. Since models explain the earth well as compared with not having models, they are useful.
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Post by nonentropic on Oct 21, 2012 1:40:00 GMT
They explain the world better than no model is a very low ball test. I would suggest a higher standard than that.
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Post by sigurdur on Oct 21, 2012 2:26:07 GMT
Note that using HadCrut4 data, we have not warmed as much as we measured in 1998.
That makes what.....16 years?
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Post by trbixler on Oct 21, 2012 2:44:59 GMT
"Computers are great tools for helping you think; just never rely on them to do the thinking for you." www.woodfortrees.org/
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Post by steve on Oct 21, 2012 12:50:49 GMT
"Computers are great tools for helping you think; just never rely on them to do the thinking for you." www.woodfortrees.org/Yes. You always have to use your judgement. Especially when there are few "right answers" against which to test your computer-based tools. Using judgement is different from and more than applying every rule in the software engineering handbook as though it were a commandment from heaven.
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Post by icefisher on Oct 21, 2012 13:51:40 GMT
Better than trusting a program written by someone who thinks that there has been no global warming for 16 years. So we are supposed to put all our faith into a program written by none other than Phil "First Hide the Decline, then Lose the Data Climategate" Jones?
Toss it in the trash Steve! The CAGW movement has been about as successful policing itself as the Tour de France was in its anti-doping campaign before they started banning people. Further, any expert knows the key to estimating trends is consistency of the data, not coverage. From a point of view of human aesthetics the concern of world temperatures is comfort and upward trends where its too cold don't really mean anything. Unless of course I am missing something. Perhaps you could fill me in what is important about doing this. I think we all acknowledge that the Arctic has warmed some, particularly at coastal stations where ice sheet an glacial retreat is the greatest. Non-randomly selected data is precisely whats wrong with the surface temperature records in the first place and adding in data that was rejected years ago as inadequate simply because its believed more warming exists in the arctic than elsewhere isn't fixing the problem. The only thing the surface records are good for in the first place is for very rough ideas of long term trends extending back before the satellite era. Here its being done to feature short term trends. Why? Also and very unfortunately once again the science community has failed to clean up its own act, it becomes even less valuable for that the more they ignore the credibility problem that surrounds them. The worth of a program is not just from whether it was crafted by experts in programming (which, of course, all the key models were), but whether it provides results that concord with experience. Since models explain the earth well as compared with not having models, they are useful.LOL! So the models are one notch above total ignorance! Steve, if you can think of a lower standard to measure them against let me know! I'll put that right up there with the modeled sexual habits of the dodo bird!
I am more concerned about the choice of authors. The only expertise Phil Jones has shown himself capable of is being disorganized, losing all the raw data for the world's surface temperature records, featuring select data while hiding adverse data, subverting publication and peer review processes and somebody hires this guy to reach into his black bag and produce a chart accelerating global warming? I would be rolling of the floor laughing my ass off if it weren't so seriously stupid and such a terrible black eye for science in general.
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Post by trbixler on Oct 21, 2012 13:55:10 GMT
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Post by numerouno on Oct 23, 2012 11:36:54 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Oct 23, 2012 12:36:43 GMT
And it confirms that during the past 16 years there has been no significant warming.
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Post by trbixler on Oct 23, 2012 13:21:08 GMT
Could not resist.
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Post by icefisher on Oct 23, 2012 14:37:46 GMT
Choose your starting point carefully: We did! According to Tstat this song saved the world from an iceage! She's real fine my 409 She's real fine my 409 My 409 Well I saved my pennies and I saved my dimes (Giddy up giddy up 409) For I knew there would be a time (Giddy up giddy up 409) When I would buy a brand new 409 (409, 409) Giddy up giddy up giddy up 409 (Giddy up giddy up 409) Giddy up 409 Now that the effect is fading lets bring back the muscle car. . . .Yaahhhh! Rrrrrrraaaarrrrrrrr!
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Post by sigurdur on Oct 23, 2012 18:01:20 GMT
Somehow, after driving 500+hp equipment, that muscle car just doesn't cut it.
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Post by icefisher on Oct 23, 2012 19:18:54 GMT
Somehow, after driving 500+hp equipment, that muscle car just doesn't cut it. You must be getting old Sig, getting charged up more by the sound and feel of a big diesel than the straight hair and stretched cheeks that a 409 powered sedan convertible could give you. I know this as I am getting old too. I worked on a boat with a pair of marine CAT 3126's and get goosebumps today when I can hear and smell and feel boats firing up their diesels. Nothing like the smell of diesel/salty air, throaty sound of exhausts and saltwater spurting out the back end of the boat, and the throb, crap I am getting goosebumps just thinking about it, think I will head over to the port! But coming of age in the early 60's. . . .well. . . .uh. . . .we were the generation with BY FAR the best toys. ;D The 409 had 425hp, stock off the showroom floor. An American Graffiti survivor. Some youngster. in his early 20's, in the early 80's some years after that film came out asked me if thats the way it was. My reply was: What! . . . . Isn't it like that anymore?
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Post by sigurdur on Oct 23, 2012 23:42:30 GMT
LOL@Icefisher: That was a good reply.
409's, 427 Hemi etc.
Yes, they did have raw power, but as you said, real raw power is in the big diesels.
Pulled a stump today that was 3 feet in diameter. Of course, I used a very heavy chain. Dang thing weighs over 100# and is only 25' long.
Put the 4WD in 1st gear, at an idle. Tightened chain, engine made a small grunt as the stump erputed out of the ground. That torque......man........ok...it feels good...LOL.
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Post by trbixler on Oct 25, 2012 1:31:07 GMT
Looking for hockey stick in records. Long look no stick. No surprise. "The summer of 2012 is now over and all temperature data recorded. Guess how many states set new state high-temperature records in 2012? None! According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), not one of our 50 states set a new state high temperature record in 2012 (www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/scec)." wattsupwiththat.com/2012/10/24/climate-and-state-high-temperature-records-wheres-the-beef/
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