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Post by sigurdur on Nov 11, 2012 16:32:23 GMT
There have been assertions that the current Arctic temps, (which are well within historical norms) have changed the NH jet stream pattern.
I am still very busy, but would be most interested in reading any credible papers that show this.
I have not read any to this point in my life.
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Post by nonentropic on Nov 11, 2012 17:17:27 GMT
How do you measure change over time and what is the time span of the data.
Do blocking highs have an space in this discussion, are they linked?
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Post by sigurdur on Nov 11, 2012 18:10:10 GMT
Blocking highs most deff are part of the discussion. Jet Streams are part and parcel of blocking highs.
And yes, time is most deff a factor. I don't know if jet streams were recorded in the early 20th century. I don't have a lot of faith in the crediblity of models that might try to show something earlier.
As I said, I have not read any paper showing the current slight diff in temps is in any way related to the jet stream strength and placement.
I have read papers showing a very strong solar influence, which once I have time I will find and share.
Let's make this a robust interesting discussion.
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Post by karlox on Nov 12, 2012 8:25:10 GMT
Blocking highs most deff are part of the discussion. Jet Streams are part and parcel of blocking highs. And yes, time is most deff a factor. I don't know if jet streams were recorded in the early 20th century. I don't have a lot of faith in the crediblity of models that might try to show something earlier. As I said, I have not read any paper showing the current slight diff in temps is in any way related to the jet stream strength and placement. I have read papers showing a very strong solar influence, which once I have time I will find and share. Let's make this a robust interesting discussion. Sigurdur, I´ve just ´googled´ "jet stream and solar activity" and first entry found might help, though it is assumed that a "Global Warming Trend" is nevertheless in course, which I find contradictory... www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/04/100415080848.htm
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Post by karlox on Nov 12, 2012 8:32:37 GMT
Just thought about blocking highs slowly moving back and forth north and south which might bring very cold winters and warmer ones both at the same time, depending you are looking into the cold part or into the southernly warm winds, the western High frontier with neighbouring Lows.
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Post by nonentropic on Nov 12, 2012 23:12:12 GMT
Cold and warm periods depending on which side, but the key point is that there will be a lot of news to report for a CAGW oriented press.
But actually trivial actual temperature change.
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Post by sigurdur on Nov 13, 2012 0:44:14 GMT
Ok.......there was a UV influecne on the jet stream during the Russian Heat Wave a few years ago. I am stating this from memory.
I did a quick search today, and there does not seem to be a lot of published research concerning UV and jet streams.
Maybe it is a dead horse?
Or no one has put the connection firmly in place yet?
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Post by karlox on Nov 16, 2012 9:16:28 GMT
Ok.......there was a UV influecne on the jet stream during the Russian Heat Wave a few years ago. I am stating this from memory. I did a quick search today, and there does not seem to be a lot of published research concerning UV and jet streams. Maybe it is a dead horse? Or no one has put the connection firmly in place yet? Sigur, although full article is nor available I´ve found this reference: adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1975FizAO..11..916E
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Post by sigurdur on Nov 16, 2012 15:30:10 GMT
Thank you Karlox. Will read the link tonight. Someone is looking at this which is a great thing.
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Post by karlox on Nov 16, 2012 20:01:17 GMT
Thank you Karlox. Will read the link tonight. Someone is looking at this which is a great thing. But it is only a reference with a brief abstract and and I can´t figure how to get the full paper!! but it sounds very promising if ozone layer growth and depletion -which might be linked to past century solar max cycles- has en effect upon jet streams wanderings that would be number 1 proof of climate change linked to solar cycles... Would that be? Going to far in my reasonings? I am not an expert at all, just a very curious person... thanks for sharing your discoveries!
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Post by Pooh on Nov 17, 2012 6:28:53 GMT
Jet Stream Analyses and Forecasts at 300 mb - Hemispheric, E. Pacific, N. American, and N. Atlantic Maps and Animations - Hemispheric, E. Pacific, N. American, and N. Atlantic Overviews - Regional Weather Maps squall.sfsu.edu/crws/jetstream.html
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Post by sigurdur on Nov 18, 2012 19:58:40 GMT
Thank you Pooh. Just got off the phone with my nephew. He is going through medical school and has access to the journals.
The research on UV and Jet Streams is pretty poor, but I did find a paper by Shindell that looks interesting.
Anyone find anything?
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Post by nautonnier on Nov 19, 2012 22:19:28 GMT
Hi Sig, Stephen Wilde is convinced the changes to meridonal from zonal flow of the jet streams is caused by changes in TSI. The more meridonal loopy flows result in more cloudiness and cooler ocean temperatures. I believe that he has written a concise paper on it but cannot find it. However, if you read this thread: wattsupwiththat.com/2012/08/13/when-will-it-start-cooling/He has a 'discussion' with Leif S which brings out most of his arguments.
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Post by sigurdur on Nov 20, 2012 2:19:39 GMT
nautonnier: What was discussed showed that someone had done reconstruction on past jet stream placement. I have not been able to find data on this.
Forget the CO2 and all the other crap.
There are two main things that control climate in the world. These are the oceans, and the other is the jet stream.
Whether one is a reaction of the other? I don't know.
I do know that placement of the jet will provide a blocking high.....etc....etc.
And is the placement of the jet affected by the UV of the sun?
Hard to believe that so little research seems to have been done in this area.
Or else, that research is cleverly hidden somewhere.
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Post by nautonnier on Nov 20, 2012 8:09:16 GMT
Hi Sig Found Stephen Wilde's paper .. See climaterealists.com/attachments/ftp/How%20The%20Sun%20Could%20Control%20Earths%20Temperature.pdfBasically, more energy into the oceans causes more vigorous Hadley cells pushing all the jet streams poleward increasing the polar vortex reducing cloudiness in temperate latitudes and increasing the amount of heat that enters the oceans in temperate latitudes. Reduce the energy by reduction of UV and the opposite occurs - Hadley cells become smaller and less vigorous and jet streams become more meridonal and Rossby waves more extreme resulting in more cloud in latitudes reducing the amount of heat entering oceans. Certainly, the jet streams have over the last few years moved equatorward and become more meridonal; the large Rossby waves have led to the Texas drought, the preceding Russian heat wave, the continual cold wet weather in Europe etc.
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