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Post by karlox on Nov 20, 2012 10:49:56 GMT
Hi Sig Found Stephen Wilde's paper .. See climaterealists.com/attachments/ftp/How%20The%20Sun%20Could%20Control%20Earths%20Temperature.pdfBasically, more energy into the oceans causes more vigorous Hadley cells pushing all the jet streams poleward increasing the polar vortex reducing cloudiness in temperate latitudes and increasing the amount of heat that enters the oceans in temperate latitudes. Reduce the energy by reduction of UV and the opposite occurs - Hadley cells become smaller and less vigorous and jet streams become more meridonal and Rossby waves more extreme resulting in more cloud in latitudes reducing the amount of heat entering oceans. Certainly, the jet streams have over the last few years moved equatorward and become more meridonal; the large Rossby waves have led to the Texas drought, the preceding Russian heat wave, the continual cold wet weather in Europe etc. Hi Nautonnier! and on the same time what have happened with ocean currents? Some changes? As you´ve always said -and Sig agreed- main drivers of Earth´s weather and climate are oceans; which sounds very reasonable to me. I understand -correct me if wrong- that ocean´s always have a lag respective changes as it accumulates or release Heat on delay. Any recent trend changes in Gulf-Stream? Artic Ocean? Could they be related -if any- with recent trends of Jet-Streams? Thanks in advance
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Post by nautonnier on Nov 20, 2012 11:56:24 GMT
Hi Sig Found Stephen Wilde's paper .. See climaterealists.com/attachments/ftp/How%20The%20Sun%20Could%20Control%20Earths%20Temperature.pdfBasically, more energy into the oceans causes more vigorous Hadley cells pushing all the jet streams poleward increasing the polar vortex reducing cloudiness in temperate latitudes and increasing the amount of heat that enters the oceans in temperate latitudes. Reduce the energy by reduction of UV and the opposite occurs - Hadley cells become smaller and less vigorous and jet streams become more meridonal and Rossby waves more extreme resulting in more cloud in latitudes reducing the amount of heat entering oceans. Certainly, the jet streams have over the last few years moved equatorward and become more meridonal; the large Rossby waves have led to the Texas drought, the preceding Russian heat wave, the continual cold wet weather in Europe etc. Hi Nautonnier! and on the same time what have happened with ocean currents? Some changes? As you´ve always said -and Sig agreed- main drivers of Earth´s weather and climate are oceans; which sounds very reasonable to me. I understand -correct me if wrong- that ocean´s always have a lag respective changes as it accumulates or release Heat on delay. Any recent trend changes in Gulf-Stream? Artic Ocean? Could they be related -if any- with recent trends of Jet-Streams? Thanks in advance Of course the oceans being heated less actively will tend to reduce the thermo-haline currents but these have a LOT of inertia. However, it is interesting to look at the SST anomalies around Florida at the moment - the source of the Gulf Stream - and see how cold the sea is there. Manatees are already clustered in the warm springs a month or so earlier than normal. I am also concerned that although the southern hemisphere has less than a month to midsummer, it is still cooler than normal. As Harold Ambler advises - don't sell your coat!
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Post by karlox on Nov 20, 2012 12:04:16 GMT
Hi Nautonnier! and on the same time what have happened with ocean currents? Some changes? As you´ve always said -and Sig agreed- main drivers of Earth´s weather and climate are oceans; which sounds very reasonable to me. I understand -correct me if wrong- that ocean´s always have a lag respective changes as it accumulates or release Heat on delay. Any recent trend changes in Gulf-Stream? Artic Ocean? Could they be related -if any- with recent trends of Jet-Streams? Thanks in advance Of course the oceans being heated less actively will tend to reduce the thermo-haline currents but these have a LOT of inertia. However, it is interesting to look at the SST anomalies around Florida at the moment - the source of the Gulf Stream - and see how cold the sea is there. Manatees are already clustered in the warm springs a month or so earlier than normal. I am also concerned that although the southern hemisphere has less than a month to midsummer, it is still cooler than normal. As Harold Ambler advises - don't sell your coat! Very interesting to notice that hot-spots and areas in NH are: -Eastern Mediterranean -Eastern US-Canada -Eastern Asia: Kamtchaka and Japan... Noticeaable negative anomaly in Eastern Greenland as opposed to summer record melting... Does this geographic distribution of anomalies point out to something? Does it have a meaing at all? Waiting for wiser words.
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Post by karlox on Nov 20, 2012 12:09:24 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Nov 20, 2012 14:53:10 GMT
What appears to be happening presently is that the earth is cooling.
This has happened before, but what is most disturbing is that there is very little research as to results when this happens.
The temp metrics all show that the no warming/cooling cycle has been approx 15-16 years now. The jet stream patterns now are also confirming this.
The oceans were warm enough after the 1998 spike to mask the initeria change. That buffer seems to be erroding now.
Naut: Thanks for the link to the paper. I will read it tonight. If behind a paywall, I will have it printed.
I had a pretty good handle on understanding things when we were in the warming phase. I am un-comfortable now as time is showing that we are cooling, and the research is so scant on climate in that type of mode.
My investment to grow a crop is hundreds of thousands of dollars. One or two bad readings of what the potential growing season will be like is enough to erase all of those dollars.
I don't like this feeling.
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Post by karlox on Nov 20, 2012 18:27:58 GMT
What appears to be happening presently is that the earth is cooling. This has happened before, but what is most disturbing is that there is very little research as to results when this happens. The temp metrics all show that the no warming/cooling cycle has been approx 15-16 years now. The jet stream patterns now are also confirming this. The oceans were warm enough after the 1998 spike to mask the initeria change. That buffer seems to be erroding now. Naut: Thanks for the link to the paper. I will read it tonight. If behind a paywall, I will have it printed. I had a pretty good handle on understanding things when we were in the warming phase. I am un-comfortable now as time is showing that we are cooling, and the research is so scant on climate in that type of mode. My investment to grow a crop is hundreds of thousands of dollars. One or two bad readings of what the potential growing season will be like is enough to erase all of those dollars. I don't like this feeling. Just posted by France in Questions for Dr. Isvalgaard following link that I think applies to the topic on discussion. Subject to your best experts evaluation... people.duke.edu/~ns2002/pdf/ATP3610.pdf
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Post by nautonnier on Nov 20, 2012 20:34:47 GMT
What appears to be happening presently is that the earth is cooling. This has happened before, but what is most disturbing is that there is very little research as to results when this happens. The temp metrics all show that the no warming/cooling cycle has been approx 15-16 years now. The jet stream patterns now are also confirming this. The oceans were warm enough after the 1998 spike to mask the initeria change. That buffer seems to be erroding now. Naut: Thanks for the link to the paper. I will read it tonight. If behind a paywall, I will have it printed. I had a pretty good handle on understanding things when we were in the warming phase. I am un-comfortable now as time is showing that we are cooling, and the research is so scant on climate in that type of mode. My investment to grow a crop is hundreds of thousands of dollars. One or two bad readings of what the potential growing season will be like is enough to erase all of those dollars. I don't like this feeling. Hi Sig The same weather patterns happened in the same way at the end of the Medieval Warm Period as the climate moved into the Little Ice Age. The weather sounds just the same as UK has had this year. From the book "The Long Summer: How Climate Changed Civilization" By Brian M. f*gan - "Seven weeks after Easter in A.D. 1315, sheets of rain spread across a sodden Europe, turning freshly plowed fields into lakes and quagmires. The deluge continued through June and July, and then August and September. Hay lay flat in the fields; wheat and barley rotted unharvested. The anonymous author of the Chronicle of Malmesbury wondered if divine vengeance had come upon the land: “Therefore is the anger of the Lord kindled against his people, and he hath stretched out his hand against them, and hath smitten them.” Most close-knit farming communities endured the shortages of 1315 and hoped for a better harvest the following year. But heavy spring rains in 1316 prevented proper sowing. Intense gales battered the English Channel and North Sea; flocks and herds withered, crops failed, prices rose, and people again contemplated the wrath of God. By the time the barrage of rains subsided in 1321, over a million-and-a-half people, villagers and city folk alike, had perished from hunger and famine-related epidemics. Giles de Muisit, abbot of Saint-Martin de Tournai in modern-day Belgium, wrote, “Men and women from among the powerful, the middling, and the lowly, old and young, rich and poor, perished daily in such numbers that the air was fetid with the stench.” People everywhere despaired. Guilds and religious orders moved through the streets, the people naked, carrying the bodies of saints and other sacred relics. After generations of good, they believed that divine retribution had come to punish a Europe divided by war and petty strife. The great rains of 1315 marked the beginning of what climatologists call the Little Ice Age, a period of six centuries of constant climatic shifts that may or may not be still in progress." Not sure if the book would assist - I doubt somehow that there are records of the northern plains back then. But it does seem to indicate that once a pattern sets in - if seems to stay that way for more than one year. So perhaps it is an effect of the land masses on atmosphere and the Rossby waves.
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Post by Pooh on Nov 21, 2012 5:41:51 GMT
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Post by Pooh on Nov 21, 2012 5:46:44 GMT
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Post by icefisher on Nov 21, 2012 12:41:59 GMT
The great rains of 1315 marked the beginning of what climatologists call the Little Ice Age, a period of six centuries of constant climatic shifts that may or may not be still in progress."
Not sure if the book would assist - I doubt somehow that there are records of the northern plains back then. But it does seem to indicate that once a pattern sets in - if seems to stay that way for more than one year. So perhaps it is an effect of the land masses on atmosphere and the Rossby waves.
Indian cultures associated with cliff dwellings in the 4 corners area of the southwest in New Mexico, Arizona, Utah, and Colorado were abandoned around 1300 believed to be due to climate change.
Why the culture disappeared is hotly debated but the society was an agrarian society and depended upon snow melt to grow their crops. There is evidence that the culture moved from lower elevation valleys to mile high mesas during the late 13th centuries.
Some have hypothesized they were forced there by expanding tribes from elsewhere but little evidence of that exists. It could have been a response to disappearing mountain glaciers that fed their crops precipitating a move up the mountain where the streams still flowed year round before percolating into the ground. There perhaps they became victims of the LIA climate change that killed off the Vikings in Greenland as it turned cold with extensive periods of snow and ice on the ground.
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 6, 2012 0:30:57 GMT
I read the abstract....may have to purchase this paper: Over about the past 30 years, depletion of the ozone layer over Antarctica has had a greater effect on climate in the Southern Hemisphere than rising greenhouse-gas concentrations, causing a polewards shift of wind and precipitation patterns. Since about 2000, the so-called ozone hole has stopped enlarging and it is expected to close completely sometime after the middle of the century, in response to a ban on the production and use of ozone-depleting substances under the Montreal Protocol. This raises the question of whether wind and precipitation patterns will revert to their pre-ozone-hole conditions as the ozone layer recovers. Two new studies — one by Polvani and colleagues1 in Geophysical Research Letters and the other by McLandress and colleagues2 in Journal of Climate — show that as the ozone hole closes, increasing greenhouse-gas concentrations will counter the effects of ozone recovery, preventing atmospheric circulation from returning to 'normal'. www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v1/n1/full/nclimate1065.html
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 6, 2012 0:33:32 GMT
This article references several papers that might deserve study: Earth's Climate Follows The Sun's UV Groove That large changes in solar radiation can affect Earth's climate is widely accepted. However, the hypothesis of solar-induced centennial to decadal climate changes, which suggests feedback mechanisms in the climate system amplifying even small solar variations, has not found acceptance among orthodox climate scientists. The climate change clique would rather place their money on greenhouse gasses—human generated CO2 in particular. It is true that satellite-based measurements of total solar irradiance show that mean variations during solar cycles do not exceed 0.2 W m−2 (~ 0.1% of the Sun's energy output). It has also been noted that relatively large variations of 5–8% in the ultraviolet (UV) frequencies can occur, though how this could change global climate remained a puzzlement—but perhaps no longer. From studying a significant climate shift 2,800 years ago, a group of scientists have concluded that large changes in solar UV radiation can, indeed, affect climate by inducing atmospheric changes. theresilientearth.com/?q=content/earths-climate-follows-suns-uv-groove
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Post by glennkoks on Dec 6, 2012 0:46:59 GMT
sigurdur,
I have read both that the jet stream has moved poleward and towards the equator but have yet to read any studies documenting this movement. Have you found any?
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 6, 2012 1:04:00 GMT
glenn: No, one says one thing, another says another thing. I think climate science and jet streams are allergic to each other.
However, on the astrophysics side.....I have finally found some items of interest.
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Post by glennkoks on Dec 6, 2012 1:08:32 GMT
sigurdur, I am interested in any info that seems to collaborate the notion that the jet stream is in fact currently moving towards the equator.
I am interested in what you have found on the astrophysics side.
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