Paul Homewood on "Holding Slingo To Account"
Back in February, Julia Slingo, the Met Office’s Chief Scientist, was reported by the BBC, when discussing the recent wet winter, as saying:
“The UK had seen the most exceptional period of rainfall in 248 years….
We have records going back to 1766 and we have nothing like this. We have seen some exceptional weather. We can’t say it is unprecedented but it is exceptional.
There was no definitive answer to what caused the storms, but all the evidence suggests there is a link to climate change”
I pointed out at the time that these statements simply were not supported by the data, and asked the Met Office to justify them. (Remember that this report was on 9th February, so she only had Dec/Jan data to go on). After three attempts on their part to sidetrack the issue, they have totally failed to back up these statements, other to to say in justification that she said “We can’t say it is unprecedented”.
Of course, nobody would say it was “unprecedented” as we only have records back to 1766, and therefore cannot know what happened before. The reality, though, is that in the records since 1766 there have been other years with even greater rainfall, whether measured over one, two, three or four month periods. Consistently, we find that the period of October 1929 to January 1930 stand out as much wetter than this winter, or any other similar periods in the records since 1910.
Let’s just recap the numbers for the UK, as a whole.
1-Month
The wettest month this winter was December, with 187.6mm. This ranks only 5th, since 1910. The wettest December was 1929, with 213.0mm.
Furthermore, there have been 13 other months since 1910 with greater rainfall.
2-Month
The wettest 2-month period this winter was Dec/Jan, which totalled 371.4mm., but this was exceeded between November and December 1929, when 401.0mm fell.
3-Month
The wettest 3-month spell this winter was Dec-Feb, when 531.7mm fell, less than the 554.0mm of Nov 1929 to January 1930.
4-Month
Between November 2013 and February 2014, we had 624.2mm of rain. But from October 1929 to January 1930 there was 706.0mm
It is clear, on all measurements, that rainfall in 1929/30 was a lot more intense and extreme than anything we have had this past winter.
England
We can also draw similar conclusions for England, as opposed to the UK.
First, the 3-month figures, where this winter only ranks 4th.
Summary
Julia Slingo tells us that:
1) The UK had seen the most exceptional period of rainfall in 248 years.
2) We have records going back to 1766 and we have nothing like this.
In fact, neither statement is true. Is she even aware of this? I suspect not, which, if true, reflects rather badly on her.
She also says:
“ but all the evidence suggests there is a link to climate change”
The fact that we have had similar, and worse, periods of weather 80+ years ago suggests that natural forces explain these events, and that there is no reason at all to play the “climate change card” .
In which case, one wonders why she did.
One also wonders why she and the rest of the Met Office have been so reluctant to ever mention any of the facts about 1929/30, that I have shown above. Could it be that any attempt to fix the blame on “climate change” would by necessity founder? Is the intention to mislead?
People are encouraged to believe that this sort of weather has never happened before, so that they then make the link to climate change. If they were to learn the truth, they might think differently.
In any event, such selective use of the data is thoroughly reprehensible. We have had everyone and his aunt, right up to the PM and the ex-Archbishop, not to mention the idiot, Davey, blame the weather this year on global warming. Surely, a truly independent and objective Met Office, funded by the taxpayer, should be standing up saying that we have had this sort of weather before, and that the same natural forces are likely to be responsible again?
Link:
notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2014/04/25/slingo-wrong-on-all-counts/