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Post by sigurdur on Jan 16, 2013 19:00:03 GMT
dontgetoutmuch: I will try and get you data and post here.
The actual cost/benefit etc are like pulling well embedded wisdom teeth.
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 16, 2013 19:29:52 GMT
taking this to the windpower thread
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Post by dontgetoutmuch on Jan 16, 2013 23:30:22 GMT
Another slight goof by the Met... theresilientearth.com/?q=content/science-gets-stratosphere-wrongHow did the Met Office get their data so wrong? Well there's the rub. You see, the methodology used to develop the Met Office SSU product was never published in the peer-reviewed literature, and certain aspects of the original processing “remain unknown.” Evidently the boffins at the Met didn't bother to write down exactly how they were massaging the raw data to get the results they reported. Indeed, those who did the data manipulation seem to have mostly retired. But the historical revisions they do are top notch!!!
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Post by nautonnier on Jan 17, 2013 0:05:24 GMT
Another slight goof by the Met... theresilientearth.com/?q=content/science-gets-stratosphere-wrongHow did the Met Office get their data so wrong? Well there's the rub. You see, the methodology used to develop the Met Office SSU product was never published in the peer-reviewed literature, and certain aspects of the original processing “remain unknown.” Evidently the boffins at the Met didn't bother to write down exactly how they were massaging the raw data to get the results they reported. Indeed, those who did the data manipulation seem to have mostly retired. But the historical revisions they do are top notch!!! Didn't they leave a 'harry-readme' file?
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Post by steve on Jan 17, 2013 7:28:59 GMT
Nobody is compelled to use an unpublished source of data.
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Post by magellan on Jan 17, 2013 16:50:09 GMT
Nobody is compelled to use an unpublished source of data. Except those promoting an agenda.
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 17, 2013 17:40:48 GMT
Ya have to look at it this way. The MetOffice knows its long term forecasting is bad. At least it is trying something new.
As with ALL long term GCM's, they are crap. Just not enough knowledge and understanding to accurately run one. I commend them for trying. Without trying, nothing would be accomplished.
One just has to understand that GCM's are a stab at projection. Keep trying I say, and someday something useful will be had.
Think about the evolution of computers. Lots of mistakes were made, operating systems changed....etc.....etc. Think about the evolution of combines even? Same basic principle as a separating machine, but they most certainly achieve a much better result. While still not perfect, at least they are useable.
The GCM's are like the early engineering of autos, combines, trucks, etc...etc. The GCM's are now at the model T stage. In a few more decades they may be at the "Mustang" stage, and in 4-8 decades they may be at the Dodge Ram 2500 Cummins stage. Dependable, and very refined.
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Post by nautonnier on Jan 17, 2013 19:12:25 GMT
Ya have to look at it this way. The MetOffice knows its long term forecasting is bad. At least it is trying something new. As with ALL long term GCM's, they are crap. Just not enough knowledge and understanding to accurately run one. I commend them for trying. Without trying, nothing would be accomplished. One just has to understand that GCM's are a stab at projection. Keep trying I say, and someday something useful will be had. Think about the evolution of computers. Lots of mistakes were made, operating systems changed....etc.....etc. Think about the evolution of combines even? Same basic principle as a separating machine, but they most certainly achieve a much better result. While still not perfect, at least they are useable. The GCM's are like the early engineering of autos, combines, trucks, etc...etc. The GCM's are now at the model T stage. In a few more decades they may be at the "Mustang" stage, and in 4-8 decades they may be at the Dodge Ram 2500 Cummins stage. Dependable, and very refined. Sig I agree -- but that is not what the Met Office says - they are convinced (and convincing politicians worldwide) that their latest GCM running on their power hungry supercomputer is totally accurate. Until they get a grant and build the next model then that is the most accurate. I would accept them at their word without error bars and total accuracy _only_ if they put their pensions in escrow to be forfeited if their projections/forecasts are found to fall outside the error bars (if any). That and only that would concentrate their minds so that they were reasonable about their output.
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Post by karlox on Jan 17, 2013 22:41:34 GMT
Unfortunately enough here they are probably right: Rough winter weather ahead in UK, and beware of meltings... more flooding ahead? Snow forecast for Friday 18 January: youtu.be/BdongSCMEq0From the MET office: A band of snow will push into the west into Friday morning with parts of Wales, the west of England and later Northern Ireland particularly at risk of heavy falls of snow and blizzard conditions in strong winds. Met Office severe weather warnings have been issued for the heavy snow. A red warning has been issued for upland parts of southern Wales where accumulations of 10 to 15 cm are expected. Up to 30 cm is possible over the hills and blizzard conditions are likely. An amber warning is in place for other parts of Wales, western England, the Midlands and central and southern England, as well as Northern Ireland where accumulations of 10 to 15 cm are expected and 20 cm or more over the hills. metofficenews.wordpress.com/
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Post by nautonnier on Jan 18, 2013 15:24:01 GMT
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Post by dontgetoutmuch on Jan 18, 2013 17:45:42 GMT
Nobody is compelled to use an unpublished source of data. I think what you meant to say was that using unpublished data is an ideal way for the frauds at the Met Office specifically and AGW fraudsters in general to hide their methods from scrutiny.
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Post by karlox on Jan 18, 2013 18:52:28 GMT
I think most parts of UK are not really used to snow, not as much as Numerouno, so same chaos happens in Madrid when we get just 10cm (and that´s an unusually high figure)
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Post by nautonnier on Jan 18, 2013 20:51:17 GMT
I think most parts of UK are not really used to snow, not as much as Numerouno, so same chaos happens in Madrid when we get just 10cm (and that´s an unusually high figure) You'll have to ask Steve - he's close to the worst of the snow - the media tend to get histrionics about weather it sells their products.
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zaphod
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 210
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Post by zaphod on Jan 19, 2013 2:09:00 GMT
The key expression which the media love here is "TRAVEL CHAOS"! If they can't have actual Travel Chaos, they will headline "FEAR OF TRAVEL CHAOS" or "THREAT OF TRAVEL CHAOS"! If caused by snow all the better, but anything will do as long as it is TRAVEL CHAOS. We are used to snow, but dealing with snow is something we seemingly cannot adequately do. Schools close at sight of a snowflake. Panic buying from shops. Typical news report: www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/snow-travel-chaos-with-flights-and-trains-cancelled-roads-closed-36-hours-of-blizzards-and-10000-without-electricity-across-britain-8453159.htmlThere was a Met Office Red Warning for part of Wales, a triangle to the north and northwest of Cardiff. I texted a friend in Cardiff who says they are a bit snowed in but fine. That warning appears to have expired. Here in the east of England we had a little snow, mostly fine powder. Temperature here presently between 0C and -1C. Although to be fair it has been -4C to -8C in parts of this region. There is a slipping hazard on paths and minor roads although the major routes are well treated. De-icing ungaraged cars is a major hassle. Basically this is normal weather here for the time of year. It was very mild over Christmas. The internet has slowed to a crawling snail at the same time as the snow and cold. Frozen broadband and snowed-in servers. Took ages to get the Met Office site to open so that I can post another link! www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/#?tab=coldWeatherAlert
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 19, 2013 3:26:50 GMT
zaphod:
I was looking at some pictures. Don't you folks have any snow plows at all? Do you rely entirely on salt?
And if salt, what in the world does that do to your cars?
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