|
Post by sigurdur on Jan 19, 2013 3:28:22 GMT
I don't mean to be ignorant, so I will ask the question.
I see the MET has put up a cold weather alert. They indicated -3C. Is that cold?
|
|
|
Post by nautonnier on Jan 19, 2013 5:08:53 GMT
zaphod: I was looking at some pictures. Don't you folks have any snow plows at all? Do you rely entirely on salt? And if salt, what in the world does that do to your cars? Sig, yes UK has snow ploughs but not a lot of them and not really geared for deep snow. In the US you will see pickups with blades doing car parks and minor roads and drives for neighbors - not in UK. The only ploughs are run by the local councils and transport authorities so they tend to be limited. Yes - salt is used and of course it only 'works' down to minus 5C or so. Tonight UK is expecting areas with colder than that. So the salt melts the snow which then freezes as the temperature drops into nice smooth (or perhaps rutted) ice. Personally I would rather drive in snow But most times UK will be just around freezing so salt will do fine - and it rots cars whose owners haven't used underseal and don't wash out under the car.
|
|
|
Post by steve on Jan 19, 2013 10:10:57 GMT
I believe the main reason for the "red warning" in a small area of Wales related to the combination of strong winds and snow that was forecast to occur for part of the day. The amber warning highlights risk of disruption in general rather than risk to life, and things were certainly disrupted: www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-21070045We do have ploughs - but ploughs can't deal with snow immediately, and often the problem is that vehicles get stuck - which snarls up the traffic on our busy roads. Salt corrodes cars. I assume our cars are built for it as my last car has just failed with an engine problem at the age of 18 despite having corrosion "advisories" on its annual tests for the last 6 or 7 years.
|
|
|
Post by steve on Jan 19, 2013 10:18:39 GMT
I don't mean to be ignorant, so I will ask the question. I see the MET has put up a cold weather alert. They indicated -3C. Is that cold? These are issued for health reasons. We have a lot of old people living in old houses that cost a fortune to heat. I think they are expecting a bit colder than -3 in some areas.
|
|
|
Post by steve on Jan 19, 2013 10:20:26 GMT
nautonnier
You seem to be learning your debating techniques from magellan.
|
|
|
Post by nautonnier on Jan 19, 2013 17:09:31 GMT
nautonnier You seem to be learning your debating techniques from magellan. If I had queried the Met Office model forecasts this time last year - I would have been told how sophisticated and accurate their model was and how it was the same one that they use for their accurate 3 - 5 day forecasts.... etc etc Now - well that's yesterdays model, this one is a really sophisticated and accurate model and is the same one that we use for our accurate 3 - 5 day forecasts.... etc etc Of course it is also corrected with fiddle factor parameters to make it match reality, but not a word about that I have no problems with uncertainty even with some probability issues where there is a continual misunderstanding of what probability means to a meteorologist and to a layman and what probabilities mean between statisticians and meteorologists (frequentist vs Bayesian). What I do have a problem with is selling certainty when that cannot be the case when you are modeling a non-linear chaotic system of chaotic systems and have only really good observations of those chaotic systems for parts of their cycles around one attractor and worse no-one knows all the aspects of any of those chaotic subsystems so it is totally impossible to guarantee that your start parameters are complete, correct, accurate or at the correct timing. But the funding politicians wanted certainty and in face of funding requirements the Met Office sold certainty despite it not existing. That is not a high ethical standard. If we were to use a third approach to probabilities or plausibilities you could look at Dempster-Shafer theory and see its face validity in that the Met Office has totally lost the rust of the public with their long range forecasts which have an extremely low degree of belief. If we were to go back to the days prior to the climate change act, had the Met Office used their current model and told parliament that global temperatures are not rising, have not risen since 1998 and will not rise measurably until at least 2017 and even then after that will only rise at a rate of ~1.5C per century ..... do you for a moment think that the House would have been so unanimous in crippling the UK economy and mandated such huge cuts in fossil fuels while making £18 billion a year available for useless windfarms? The Met Office could have been totally honest about their doubts or even about the temperatures - but then it would not have received all that lovely funding for their various establishments. So now - even with this new model - there is no hint of uncertainty - "temperatures are really rising just you can't see it yet and they WILL rise after 2017- honest guv - trust me I'm a climate 'scientist' ."
|
|
|
Post by sigurdur on Jan 19, 2013 19:08:48 GMT
|
|
zaphod
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 210
|
Post by zaphod on Jan 19, 2013 20:34:21 GMT
|
|
|
Post by sigurdur on Jan 19, 2013 20:51:45 GMT
zaphod:
All I can say is I am amazed at the reaction to a dusting of snow in your country.
When it snows 6 inches, or 15 cm for you metric folks, we don't even slow down and notice it. And it can do that at 0F or -20C or so.....
We had 3 inches of snow over night here, 30+mph winds, and nobody even noticed, just go about our daily business. And the temp is -18C, or 0F.
|
|
zaphod
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 210
|
Post by zaphod on Jan 19, 2013 21:45:48 GMT
I agree, sig.
Over the years working and living in various places I have regularly commuted to work by train, car, or even bus and bicycle. Fairly recently I was driving a 150 mile daily round trip into outer London (different ballgame to central London!). I have always been struck by the fact that local radio weather reports exaggerate how "bad" things are (TRAVEL CHAOS!!!) and generally there was no real problem with exercise of care and commonsense. Met Office weather reports are generally helpful, but their warnings can usually be ignored or put in perspective again with some commonsense precautions.
What is really concerning is the media manipulation of what are normal winter conditions here! The newspapers work hard to find a photo that seems to show some snow, but if you looked at many you would be hard pressed to find anything evidencing severe weather!
If the media behave this way over normal weather, how can anyone trust their treatment of climate?
I think in either Imperial or Metric measure. Both are used despite our supposed "metrication" back in the 70's!
|
|
|
Post by Pooh on Jan 20, 2013 6:21:39 GMT
Zaphod: Standard practice for media: "If it bleeds, it leads."
|
|
|
Post by nautonnier on Jan 20, 2013 12:33:57 GMT
I agree, sig. Over the years working and living in various places I have regularly commuted to work by train, car, or even bus and bicycle. Fairly recently I was driving a 150 mile daily round trip into outer London (different ballgame to central London!). I have always been struck by the fact that local radio weather reports exaggerate how "bad" things are (TRAVEL CHAOS!!!) and generally there was no real problem with exercise of care and commonsense. Met Office weather reports are generally helpful, but their warnings can usually be ignored or put in perspective again with some commonsense precautions. What is really concerning is the media manipulation of what are normal winter conditions here! The newspapers work hard to find a photo that seems to show some snow, but if you looked at many you would be hard pressed to find anything evidencing severe weather! If the media behave this way over normal weather, how can anyone trust their treatment of climate? I think in either Imperial or Metric measure. Both are used despite our supposed "metrication" back in the 70's! While I agree that headlines of chaos make good headlines, some of the chaos is actually happening looking at the Ferrovial owned Heathrow (its all Karlox's fault ) There are many totally unprepared unprofessional managers in our transport systems that are managers because they have an MBA but not because they understand the business. This becomes immediately apparent when some relatively small event happens out of the ordinary and they just cannot cope. Heathrow is a case in point 2 inches of snow and its in a grovelling heap. I was working at O'Hare a much larger airport while they had 18" of snow and the airport just carried on. There is a rule with running systems - anyone can run a system while nothing goes wrong. Its having the resilience to keep running when things go wrong that show you the management and system design is correct.
|
|
zaphod
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 210
|
Post by zaphod on Jan 20, 2013 13:19:51 GMT
|
|
|
Post by shaggy on Jan 20, 2013 21:10:34 GMT
Hi, New to the forum but been a lurker for 4 years reading various articles. I wanted to share my experience with weather, here in the uk, what with the met office in previous years predicting bar-b-q summers and mild winters.... I am very interested in weather and have my own weather station in my back garden:- www.watermeadowweather.webspace.virginmedia.com/index.htmI also love it when it snows or when we have decent thunder storms (born in the wrong country methinks). I can remember winters here in the uk from 1978, 1981, 1985, 1987, 1991 where we had snow in this area (central UK). My memory is weak with the middle of the 90s. Up to 2007 we did not have many decent snowfalls. It may of been cold and we may of had the odd flurry bur rarely a decent event with snowmen and difficult driving conditions. Like i said i am looking from my perspective here in middle england. I also have dabbled with green fingers, growing bell peppers and plum tomatoes in the back garden. Now I mention this as this has a bearing on where we are going. Up to 2006 we had some lovely summers - so much so I invested in a portable air conditioning unit to help keep cool. At the end of July 2006 the summer broke with a good night of thunderstorms - I have them on video. August was ushered in and the weather was overcast and cool. Up until that point my growing peppers and tomatoes were doing very well but from that night of storms the growing slowed dramatically - so much so my peppers were not really worth bothering with. The winter of 2006/2007, from memory, was cool but not exceptional. The summer of 2007 i tried to grow peppers and tomatoes again but with very poor success. The winter of 2007/2008 was yet again not exceptional. 2008 summer was the last time i tried my green fingers with peppers and tomatoes and gave up as they grew very poorly. The winter of 2008/2009 turned very cold Jan/Feb 2009 and snowed a significant amount. The summer of 2009 was nothing to write home about - the air conditioning unit was gathering dust as it had not been used since 2006. The winter of 2009 started December 18th (mates mother died that morning - thats how i remember it) and we had snow that lay around over christmas before being joined with more in January and February 2010 (an amount that made driving interesting). The summer 2010 again was not worth mentioning. Winter started the end of November 2010 with bitterly cold winds. The snow arrived mid December 2010 with more in early 2011. The summer of 2011 yet again was not worth noting (by all this not noting i mean no 'phew what a schorcher' headlines in the papers). Winter 2012 we had snow in January/February - a drought was going on until April 2012 when the weather changed and we had very wet weather. So much so that we have gone from drought to floods. Now here we are in 2013 with a 'sudden stratospheric warming' that has caused a blocking high and freezing air from siberia to move over us coupled with moist air from the west and we have got some lovely snow. I only mention this as the met office will have you believe that we are warming and mankind is guilty of causing global warming. I know you guys like hard facts backed up with links to websites and so on but i have not got that. I only have my knowledge that in the past 6 years my green fingers have given up as peppers and plum tomatoes don't grow as well as they did in the first half of the 00's. There have been hardly any thunderstorms around here and for five years on the trot we have had decent snowfall around here. Is this a sign of things to come? Are we cooling down now? From where i am sitting it feels like it. Thanks for reading - I hope there is some useful information contained within. Shaggy
|
|
|
Post by Ratty on Jan 21, 2013 4:01:56 GMT
Welcome Shaggy .... I'm a lurker too but anecdotes like yours help to round out the picture.
Here in Australia, the monsoon has arrived and the weather is pretty well back to "normal" after the "unprecedented" stuff of the past couple of weeks. It's been hot, some "records" have been broken but it's all par for the course as far as this sixty-eight year old is concerned.
From a famous Australian poet, Dorothea Mackellar: I love a sunburnt country, A land of sweeping plains, Of ragged mountain ranges, Of droughts and flooding rains. I love her far horizons, I love her jewel-sea, Her beauty and her terror - The wide brown land for me!
|
|