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Post by acidohm on Sept 25, 2015 17:15:39 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 25, 2015 18:07:05 GMT
You will hear this ad nauseum in Paris if the attendees have to ski to their venues. "The AMOC is falling ... the AMOC is falling. Take a clue ... it's CO2!" Cold is hot! And up is down!
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Post by acidohm on Sept 25, 2015 18:21:47 GMT
Missouri: Can you plot the running average to see if their is an annual signal in the graphs? Thanks. It doesn't have a canned running avg. app function ... but it will let you write the time series to an ascii text file from which I can construct any number of functions. For now it will plot mthly deviation from an 11-year annual avg. and mthly deviation from an 11-year mthly avg. The former should look like an amplified version of a running 12-mth. avg. Found out how to update the atlas to include the latest Argo data months (hint: atlas window has 'update' button ) and did so ... latest month is July, 2015. Each month's data are supposed to be available by the middle of the next month ... so August is already late. As we knew, the temperature rout continued into 2015. Are we seeing step changes here? A 2005-08 (3 yrs) tread dropping 0.2 C (2 yrs) to a 2010-13 (3 yrs) tread dropping ?? C to ?? tread. Note that, in the right graph, the summer rebound for 2015 appears way behind that which occurred in 2014. Aug.-Sept. data should suggest. Note also that the first step down coincided with the 2009-10 winter and that strange, temporary decline in the northward Ekman flow? I might also point out that 2009-10 was, I believe, just after solar min between cycles 23 and 24 ... and we are currently heading downnnnn and away from cycle 24 2nd-peak max ... although the big drop in winter 2013-14 didn't wait for the secondary peak. Questions for the cousins ... will you be buying a toboggan? Or a parachute? Us too maybe. Friendly gallows humor, and, of course we sell both here at your friendly climate change shop. The turbocharged CO2 model is on sale this week. You can pre-order your Paris Commemorative Edition ... just $999,999 before your Federal grant or Scientific Merit Award markdown. Its a bit eye opening to see those graphs M boy, in answer to your question, yes i will be buying a toboggan....2 in fact for both boys It is interesting to see how the temps respond in some way to the solar cycles. But currently i am left wondering how this all ties together!! now looking more north for answers then south. Your a demon with Data Missouriboy.......nice work!!
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Post by acidohm on Sept 25, 2015 18:27:36 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 25, 2015 22:35:51 GMT
VISUAL ANATOMY OF A NORTH ATLANTIC COOL-DOWN - PART 1 For Area 35-65 N, 0-60 W: Deviation from 11-Year Monthly Mean Temperature at 0-700 m Depth: 2005-2011 Feb. 2005 - Extensively Warmer than 11-Year mthly Normal Feb. 2010 - Ocean cool down coincident with cold 2009-10 Winter Feb. 2011 - Partial recovery of Ocean temperatures in 2011. Argo data plotted using Argo Global Marine Atlas Roemmich, D. and J. Gilson, 2009: The 2004-2008 mean and annual cycle of temperature, salinity, and steric height in the global ocean from the Argo Program. Progress in Oceanography, 82, 81-100.
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 25, 2015 22:51:34 GMT
VISUAL ANATOMY OF A NORTH ATLANTIC COOL-DOWN - PART 2 For Area 35-65 N, 0-60 W: Deviation from 11-Year Monthly Mean Temperature at 0-700 m Depth: 2015 February 2015 - Most of basin waters 0-700 m between 0 and -1 C below 11-year mthly normal Warmth from AMOC flow penetrating no farther than 50 N May 2015 - Patches of waters -1 to -2 C below 11-year mthly normal starting to appear. Warmth from AMOC flow trailing off to east but still not penetrating farther than 50 N. July 2015 - Extensive areas of waters -1 to -2 C below 11-year mthly normal appearing. Warmth from AMOC flow largely confined to below 46 N latitude. Argo data plotted using Argo Global Marine Atlas Roemmich, D. and J. Gilson, 2009: The 2004-2008 mean and annual cycle of temperature, salinity, and steric height in the global ocean from the Argo Program. Progress in Oceanography, 82, 81-100.
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Post by sigurdur on Sept 26, 2015 1:16:21 GMT
missouriboy: I am so glad you have a talent I totally lack.
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 26, 2015 17:46:03 GMT
VISUAL ANATOMY OF A NORTH ATLANTIC COOL-DOWN - THE NORTHWARD TRANSECT, VERTICAL TEMPERATURE SLICE There may be a better way to do this but I haven't figured it out yet. We now know what the plan-view distribution of temperature anomalies look like for select time snapshots: Feb. 2005, Feb. 2010, Feb. 2011, Feb. 2015, May 2015 and July 2015. These anomalies are averaged over depths from 0 to 700 meters and are composed of different vertical distributions of warm and cold water and their respective currents. My goal here is to step through a series of northward moving vertical slices to see how these water masses are distributed at depth, and how they have changed from a warm AMO regime to what appears to be an emerging cold AMO regime. If it is possible to tease out the overturning components of the circulation (warm northward vs cold southward flows) from the Argo data, then that would be great. We will see. This is the first step before looking at the current velocities. I am trying to economize on the slices ... but put on your boots as we're trapzing through the data muck. i am not forgetting sample size. I have visually looked at the plan-view distribution of Argo samples. They appear to be numerous enough to support what I am doing, although I have not found a method within the software to extract the sample size in these slices in total and by depth to get a feel for error bars. Argo Marine Atlas staff have done a marvelous job with this product. As in all such ventures, ya can't cover everything. As a fellow data monkey, I commend and salute their efforts. IS NORTHWARD AMOC HEAT TRANSFER TERMINATING (?) AT 50 N IN 2015? - PART 1 There is a northeastward trending data shadow along the coast from 40-45 N as the Atlantic goes around Labrador. At 40 N, there are two northward warm streams to about 700 meters centered on 65W and 57W bisected by a deep, narrow, southward cold flow at 58W extending to 2000 meters. The edge of another cold stream appears along the western data shaddow. Another shallower (to 1K) cold stream can be identified from 40-45 W. Deeper, marginally warm water extend to about 25 W. Stepping northward to 42 N, data shadow at 65 W, both northward warm streams are visible at 65 and 57 W. The deep, narrow cold stream is gone (??) but the eastward cold streams are still there and eastward extent of marginally warm waters are about the same. At 45 N, one warm stream (to 1 K) is visible at 40 W. Cold water starts at 38 W and descends to 2000 m at 20 W. Argo data plotted using Argo Global Marine Atlas Roemmich, D. and J. Gilson, 2009: The 2004-2008 mean and annual cycle of temperature, salinity, and steric height in the global ocean from the Argo Program. Progress in Oceanography, 82, 81-100.
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 26, 2015 18:21:47 GMT
IS NORTHWARD AMOC HEAT TRANSFER TERMINATING (?) AT 50 N IN 2015? - PART 2 At 48 to 52 N, warm surface flow has become limited to one narrow stream centered on 40-45 W extending to 1000 m and then 600 m. Colder water dominates the surface both west and east of this stream. At 54 N, the warm surface stream is gone. Marginally warm water are largely confined to below 1000 m. Argo data plotted using Argo Global Marine Atlas Roemmich, D. and J. Gilson, 2009: The 2004-2008 mean and annual cycle of temperature, salinity, and steric height in the global ocean from the Argo Program. Progress in Oceanography, 82, 81-100.
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Post by nonentropic on Sept 26, 2015 19:33:10 GMT
Very impressive work, but it could be very worrying if you live in Northern EU.
Are there any comparable slumps in temperature of the North Atlantic seas?
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 26, 2015 20:56:44 GMT
Very impressive work, but it could be very worrying if you live in Northern EU. Are there any comparable slumps in temperature of the North Atlantic seas? It appears that there may be a great latitudinal leveling of temperature going on at about 46-50 N. That may not be a good standard scientific term, but the heat carried by the northeastwardly drifting AMOC skews the temperature contours of the Eastern Atlantic toward the poles, and whatever is happening now appears to be flattening them. There are no dramatic population clusters at those latitudes on the western side of the pond. So far, it looks like heat associated with the Gulf Stream, northward to (and beyond?) where the sub-tropical gyre splits eastward is holding its own. Quebec City, which is the largest, northernmost city of size on the west, is at ~47 N. Water temps don't appear to be changing along the American coastline, but I've just scratched the surface of that area using the atlas. The Argo Marine Atlas is so easy to use that I'm surprised we don't see results scattered all over the web. This thing really is amazing. If I had to copy the data and devise the analysis and display methods myself, it would be quite a chore. I am making one gigantic assumption ... and i have no reason to believe otherwise ... that these are the best data available ... and that no one is skewing them to a political objective. I did something similar for a living in my past life, so I'm as happy as a boy in a candy factory for the moment.
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Post by acidohm on Sept 26, 2015 21:56:28 GMT
Genuinely pleased to see your pleasure in what your doing at the moment Missouriboy. .I'm going to have to read it twice at least to fully process mentally what you've produced to date. The Internet is such an amazing tool for 'non professional science' Can you imagine even trying to formulate your own ocean current temperature transects 10 years ago. Would have had to go to library and pour over others work in scientific papers...about 10% the fun!
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Post by acidohm on Sept 26, 2015 22:07:42 GMT
Very impressive work, but it could be very worrying if you live in Northern EU. Are there any comparable slumps in temperature of the North Atlantic seas? Apparently the last time the NA went this cold was early '90s...The warming golden years...
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 26, 2015 22:11:04 GMT
Genuinely pleased to see your pleasure in what your doing at the moment Missouriboy. .I'm going to have to read it twice at least to fully process mentally what you've produced to date. The Internet is such an amazing tool for 'non professional science' Can you imagine even trying to formulate your own ocean current temperature transects 10 years ago. Would have had to go to library and pour over others work in scientific papers...about 10% the fun! Absolutely .... the boys and girls at Argo are on my Christmas card list. Attributed to .... A boy and his data, armed with a 40-caliber software package and an intent to use it!
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 26, 2015 22:33:21 GMT
Very impressive work, but it could be very worrying if you live in Northern EU. Are there any comparable slumps in temperature of the North Atlantic seas? Apparently the last time the NA went this cold was early '90s...The warming golden years... The question becomes ... 'How cold was cold (In comparison)?' And were the settings and mechanisms the same? Looking back, seems like I replied to Nonentropic without ever answering his question. Sorry about that ... and thanks Acidohm. Tunnel vision.
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