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Post by nautonnier on May 20, 2015 17:25:47 GMT
Thx so much Missouriboy! I know the site but never paid attention to these pages....mad busy at the moment getting my business ready for going on hol at the w end. ..will absorb these pages in Croatia with a beer! Say hello to Split or Dubrovnik for me. Wish I were there! Try some Prošek after your first dinner there.
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Post by acidohm on May 20, 2015 18:08:41 GMT
Thx so much Missouriboy! I know the site but never paid attention to these pages....mad busy at the moment getting my business ready for going on hol at the w end. ..will absorb these pages in Croatia with a beer! Say hello to Split or Dubrovnik for me. Wish I were there! It'll be Split...we're about 100km south nr Makarska, we have apartments to rent in the summer if anyone is interested!! I'll drop a report on weather conditions for the Med!!
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Post by acidohm on May 20, 2015 18:11:26 GMT
Say hello to Split or Dubrovnik for me. Wish I were there! Try some Prošek after your first dinner there. The family out there are more likely to put slivovitz down as apertif
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Post by douglavers on May 25, 2015 0:31:03 GMT
Headline in WUWT: "Norwegian observations confirms: The Gulf Stream has been stable over the past 20 years Anthony Watts / 1 day ago May 23, 2015 One the more alarming claims about global warming is that is will cause a change in ocean currents, such as the Gulf Stream." I don't understand why, if the above is true, there is such an enormous NEGATIVE temperature anomaly over the North Atlantic. weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif
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Post by nautonnier on May 25, 2015 0:58:01 GMT
Headline in WUWT: "Norwegian observations confirms: The Gulf Stream has been stable over the past 20 years Anthony Watts / 1 day ago May 23, 2015 One the more alarming claims about global warming is that is will cause a change in ocean currents, such as the Gulf Stream." I don't understand why, if the above is true, there is such an enormous NEGATIVE temperature anomaly over the North Atlantic. weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gifThe question you have to ask is: Do I believe what I am being told any more? I treat everyone now as at best an equivocator.
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Post by missouriboy on May 25, 2015 3:07:59 GMT
Headline in WUWT: "Norwegian observations confirms: The Gulf Stream has been stable over the past 20 years Anthony Watts / 1 day ago May 23, 2015 One the more alarming claims about global warming is that is will cause a change in ocean currents, such as the Gulf Stream." I don't understand why, if the above is true, there is such an enormous NEGATIVE temperature anomaly over the North Atlantic. weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gifNorth American winter temperatures have been declining since at least 2005 ... spring and summer temps are getting colder in Sigs area ... Iceland is cooling ... even the Norwegians show that Gulf Stream temps have been declining for the last 10 years ... and there's a big, blue blob in the middle of the North Atlantic Ocean. Is this shallow, convex curve going to take us over an easily navigable climatic riffle? Or are we going to drop off an astronomic cliff? I'd say we'll be finding out in about the next three to five years or so. The stage is set. The microphone is warming up (or cooling down). The script is being written. Will we get a Tina Louise look-alike with a surf board? Or, will it be the fat lady with an animal skin and a battle axe? I'm hoping for Tina, but I'm afraid I hear heavy bootsteps in the distance!
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Post by sigurdur on May 25, 2015 3:11:13 GMT
Headline in WUWT: "Norwegian observations confirms: The Gulf Stream has been stable over the past 20 years Anthony Watts / 1 day ago May 23, 2015 One the more alarming claims about global warming is that is will cause a change in ocean currents, such as the Gulf Stream." I don't understand why, if the above is true, there is such an enormous NEGATIVE temperature anomaly over the North Atlantic. weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gifDoug: You have to think of this in a volume sense. While the Gulf Stream is large, the amount of water it is influencing is larger. What the large area of cooler water tells me is that to overcome the Gulf Stream, 1. That water is COLD 2. There is a LOT of COLD water there. Fill a glass 2/3 full with cold water, add warm (not hot) water to that glass and it will still seem like cold water.
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Post by douglavers on May 25, 2015 4:52:53 GMT
Sorry Sigatur
I don't think that's the point.
The Norwegians seem to be implying that the Gulf Stream [aka North Atlantic Drift] is as strong as ever.
There is not much sign at the moment that all that lovely warm [relatively] surface water is getting anywhere near Norway.
I don't think this point is going to matter much in eight months.
Either the article is right - when Europe will have a 'normal' winter - or they are wrong, in which case Northern and Western European winter temperatures will drop several degrees on average.
That will be noticeable, particularly in Atlantic facing countries which will be 'enjoying' snow rather than rain.
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Post by nautonnier on May 25, 2015 6:59:19 GMT
It is strange for a site that normally excoriates people for drawing linear trends through cyclic or chaotic data that they have allowed the Norwegian paper to draw a linear trend through what appears to be a short section of a cycle. Choice of start point for a linear projection on a cycle will give you whatever trend you want to have. Looking at the 12 month smoothed data it appears to be cresting a temperature cycle between 2003 and 2010 and is now dropping back down again. This is an enormous change in energy content.
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Post by nautonnier on May 29, 2015 15:58:34 GMT
Despite what the Norwegians say, NOAA says: "Dr David Smeed, from the NOC and lead scientist of the RAPID project, adds: “The observations of AMOC from the RAPID array, over the past ten years, show that it is declining. As a result, we expect the AMO is moving to a negative phase, which will result in cooler surface waters. This is consistent with observations of temperature in the North Atlantic.”"See paper extracts in Tallblokes Talkshop
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Post by missouriboy on May 29, 2015 17:42:00 GMT
Despite what the Norwegians say, NOAA says: "Dr David Smeed, from the NOC and lead scientist of the RAPID project, adds: “The observations of AMOC from the RAPID array, over the past ten years, show that it is declining. As a result, we expect the AMO is moving to a negative phase, which will result in cooler surface waters. This is consistent with observations of temperature in the North Atlantic.”"See paper extracts in Tallblokes TalkshopThe Central North Atlantic " blue blob" has back-filled into the North Sea in the last 30 days. May temperatures for Reykjavik, Bergen, Inverness and Edinburgh are at or below the lowest Mays recorded for the 19-year time period 1997-2015. Source: Weather Underground.
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Post by flearider on May 29, 2015 21:05:22 GMT
hmm 11-15 deg c during the day dropping to 6-9 deg c over night .. def not in Kansas anymore Dorothy .... more like march temps .. I can see the pacific going the same way next yr with it being a bigger water it lags a yr or two behind the atlantic .. and yes it's all due to that big ice cube at the other end of the world ..
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Post by wheels59 on May 29, 2015 21:11:27 GMT
I live near Inverness and can vouch for that. Being a decorator and working outside through much of May when it's usually quite mild, this May has been very cold with bitter winds a lot of the time.
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Post by acidohm on May 29, 2015 22:34:22 GMT
Missouriboy, your a data guy?? Pulling up the argo floats on google earth which plots their routes as they drift in the current for anything up to 10 years or so ago, specifically i'm looking at the NAD. There are dozens of these things in N Atlantic along with each point of the plot giving dates etc. Thinking these could a good way to determine current er, currents eg, is NAD not making it as far north etc. I am however starting to 'swim' in info.....how would you suggest making sense of it all...if possible?? (excuse the weak puns.....!) Acidohm. Ran across this site which summarizes newer studies questioning current beliefs regarding the structure of meridional overturning currents in ocean circulation. Floater circulation tracking is discussed. theresilientearth.com/?q=content/ocean-conveyor-belt-dismissedtheresilientearth.com/?q=content/conveyor-belt-model-brokentheresilientearth.com/?q=content/ocean-conveyor-belt-confounds-climate-scienceParticularly liked the Duck ocean monitor armada! Thx again Missouriboy....I guess it should be obvious that the nice ocean diagrams are laughed at by fluid dynamics and chaos! I think a lot will be learned over the next few months as modern instruments record any changes in North atlantic currents..... +1 on floatee armada....found an article in daily mail from 2007....read indenticly to the wiki entry on these same objects. ..amazing journalism
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Post by missouriboy on May 30, 2015 2:20:17 GMT
I live near Inverness and can vouch for that. Being a decorator and working outside through much of May when it's usually quite mild, this May has been very cold with bitter winds a lot of the time. Thanks for the local input Wheels59. Weather Underground says that Inverness averaged 46 F (7.8 C) for the first 29 days of May. In the old days, I'd never question the numbers, but lately, I always wonder! Good to hear from locals, who can verify local conditions. I've searched all over the internet but haven't yet found anything trumpeting coldness in land areas surrounding the north parts of the pond. It will be interesting to see what summer and next winter bring. I feel a little guilty saying that, as I'm 17 degrees of latitude south of you and right in the center of the N. American continent, which buffers us (so far). You guys are on the bleeding edge of a changing AMO! Be very happy if you kept us informed.
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