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Post by missouriboy on May 30, 2015 2:23:48 GMT
Thx again Missouriboy....I guess it should be obvious that the nice ocean diagrams are laughed at by fluid dynamics and chaos! I think a lot will be learned over the next few months as modern instruments record any changes in North atlantic currents..... +1 on floatee armada....found an article in daily mail from 2007....read indenticly to the wiki entry on these same objects. ..amazing journalism The arm chair is always more comfortable! If we don't learn something from this, then we are blind Sir! Ah say, B-L-I-N-D!
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Post by sigurdur on May 30, 2015 2:51:53 GMT
I live near Inverness and can vouch for that. Being a decorator and working outside through much of May when it's usually quite mild, this May has been very cold with bitter winds a lot of the time. Thanks for the local input Wheels59. Weather Underground says that Inverness averaged 46 F (7.8 C) for the first 29 days of May. In the old days, I'd never question the numbers, but lately, I always wonder! Good to hear from locals, who can verify local conditions. I've searched all over the internet but haven't yet found anything trumpeting coldness in land areas surrounding the north parts of the pond. It will be interesting to see what summer and next winter bring. I feel a little guilty saying that, as I'm 17 degrees of latitude south of you and right in the center of the N. American continent, which buffers us (so far). You guys are on the bleeding edge of a changing AMO! Be very happy if you kept us informed. Ya, that 17 degrees south is important! Freeze warning tonight for my area. And this one would be a LATE one.
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Post by missouriboy on May 30, 2015 3:33:54 GMT
Thanks for the local input Wheels59. Weather Underground says that Inverness averaged 46 F (7.8 C) for the first 29 days of May. In the old days, I'd never question the numbers, but lately, I always wonder! Good to hear from locals, who can verify local conditions. I've searched all over the internet but haven't yet found anything trumpeting coldness in land areas surrounding the north parts of the pond. It will be interesting to see what summer and next winter bring. I feel a little guilty saying that, as I'm 17 degrees of latitude south of you and right in the center of the N. American continent, which buffers us (so far). You guys are on the bleeding edge of a changing AMO! Be very happy if you kept us informed. Ya, that 17 degrees south is important! Freeze warning tonight for my area. And this one would be a LATE one. We're back to normal for May Precip. and 1.5 C above normal on temps. I like my 17 degrees. Might have to make it 30 before we're through!
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Post by wheels59 on May 30, 2015 6:45:53 GMT
The weather forecast for last night was for frost in rural areas for the North of Scotland and for snow on the highest mountain tops. Going into June that's quite unusual in recent years and I'm already wondering what's going to happen next winter looking at the blue blob in the north atlantic
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Post by graywolf on May 30, 2015 11:09:01 GMT
Not all of our weather ploughs in from the NW Atlantic as the next 7 days will amply show us here in the UK ( over 30c anyone??)
I have to wonder about the increased melt off Greenland ( cold ,fresh ,surface waters) and the impacts of the errant PV over the past two winter once it had finished with East U.S. and fell into the Atlantic?
Seeing as Arctic sea ice is beginning to look worrying ( lowest of the JAXA pile for a while now and a Beaufort high setting in for the duration so 'perfect melt stormesque ' synoptics dominating) with the weather nothing like we saw in 13'/14'.
Back to us here in the UK; I'm thinking that , for once, we may be in for a 'flaming June' with the prospects of T Storms in among the heat......purrrrrrfect forme!
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Post by nautonnier on May 30, 2015 12:00:44 GMT
Why do I have this mental image of you rubbing your hands together smiling - when you talk about 'worrying' Arctic ice? How can that be worrying? It has happened before many times. It is like talking of a 'worrying' sunset.
The current forecasts are that you will barely make the low 20s (mid 70's in old money) but then you could always commute to the South East where it might be warmer - if you can take the poor beer with no straight glasses.
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Post by flearider on May 30, 2015 14:33:59 GMT
Not all of our weather ploughs in from the NW Atlantic as the next 7 days will amply show us here in the UK ( over 30c anyone??) ok that would be from wed the 4th ..max 18-23deg c .. but night time temps drop to 6-13deg c and that's inland temps I have to wonder about the increased melt off Greenland ( cold ,fresh ,surface waters) and the impacts of the errant PV over the past two winter once it had finished with East U.S. and fell into the Atlantic? ??the cold is upwelling from the antartic ..nowt to do with fresh water .. Seeing as Arctic sea ice is beginning to look worrying ( lowest of the JAXA pile for a while now and a Beaufort high setting in for the duration so 'perfect melt stormesque ' synoptics dominating) with the weather nothing like we saw in 13'/14'. how is it worrying ?http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php Back to us here in the UK; I'm thinking that , for once, we may be in for a 'flaming June' with the prospects of T Storms in among the heat......purrrrrrfect forme! storms are right but it will be from the cold atlantic colliding with warm air from the equator ..the suns got about 6 spots on it so unless it wakes up summer will be just a spring or fall
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Post by missouriboy on May 30, 2015 18:04:42 GMT
Not all of our weather ploughs in from the NW Atlantic as the next 7 days will amply show us here in the UK ( over 30c anyone??) I have to wonder about the increased melt off Greenland ( cold ,fresh ,surface waters) and the impacts of the errant PV over the past two winter once it had finished with East U.S. and fell into the Atlantic? Seeing as Arctic sea ice is beginning to look worrying ( lowest of the JAXA pile for a while now and a Beaufort high setting in for the duration so 'perfect melt stormesque ' synoptics dominating) with the weather nothing like we saw in 13'/14'. Back to us here in the UK; I'm thinking that , for once, we may be in for a 'flaming June' with the prospects of T Storms in among the heat......purrrrrrfect forme! I can sympathize Graywolf! Anchorage, Alaska, on average, only got 10 clear, sunny summer days a year. We tried never to waste a single one. If summer fell on a weekend, we barbequed! Many were the times we would fantasize a warm thunderstorm out of the southland and a 'flaming June'! Then reality would set back in!
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Post by douglavers on May 30, 2015 23:08:58 GMT
I dug this out of an article on WUWT. Not much melting happening in Greenland! This is consistent with a very cold North Atlantic.
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Post by Ratty on Jun 1, 2015 1:48:38 GMT
This too ..... Greenland Surface Mass Balance: Top: The total daily contribution to the surface mass balance from the entire ice sheet (blue line, Gt/day). Bottom: The accumulated surface mass balance from September 1st to now (blue line, Gt) and the season 2011-12 (red) which had very high summer melt in Greenland. For comparison, the mean curve from the period 1990-2011 is shown (dark grey). The same calendar day in each of the 22 years (in the period 1990-2011) will have its own value. These differences from year to year are illustrated by the light grey band. For each calendar day, however, the lowest and highest values of the 22 years have been left out.
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Post by douglavers on Jun 3, 2015 11:49:25 GMT
Trivia Time:
Assume the cold anomaly in the North Atlantic has dimensions of 2000*500*0.5 kms. [Assumed 500 metres deep on a 2000*500 km block].
Assume a 1degC temperature anomaly.
I may have my units wrong, but I think that temperature change needs 33 Billion MWH [Megawatt Hour].
For comparison the Drax Power Station [7% of UK's Power Output], generates about 30 Million MWH each year.[The temperature change outlined required about 1000 Drax power stations for a year].
I have no idea whether my 500 metre depth for the anomaly is correct, but below 500 metres, I think all the water is about 3 deg C.
I think the North Atlantic Temperature anomaly is actually between 2 and 4 deg C.
What happened to that heat?
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Post by acidohm on Jun 3, 2015 14:18:59 GMT
I think it's just the heat never got there. ..that part of the ocean is dependant on warm water from the caribbean..if the supply is chocked, N Atlantic temps drop. .
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Post by nonentropic on Jun 3, 2015 19:52:33 GMT
The more interesting comparison would be the energy in just that blob relative to the amount in say a 1C change in the worlds atmosphere. Not as simple as it looks because of consequent moisture change but that would give it dimension.
Sorry but mans biggest machines are trivial in these discussions.
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Post by nonentropic on Jun 3, 2015 19:52:46 GMT
The more interesting comparison would be the energy in just that blob relative to the amount in say a 1C change in the worlds atmosphere. Not as simple as it looks because of consequent moisture change but that would give it dimension.
Sorry but mans biggest machines are trivial in these discussions.
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Post by missouriboy on Jun 5, 2015 14:23:39 GMT
THE 'BLUE BLOB' HAS SWALLOWED 'THE COUSINS'. Interesting exercise ... bring up Earth.NullSchool earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-40.63,57.97,1024 Left click on earth at bottom left - click on Mode = Ocean, click on Animate = Currents, click on Overlay = SSTA. Note there appears to be little warm water left around England, Ireland, Scotland and Wales. The Baltic has gone negative. Zoom into Iceland and notice the thin, 'warm' stream between it and Greenland. The currents are headed southwest ... and has the visual feel of a stream draining the declining warm pool in the North. May be illusion ... some of it is the westward, then southern diversion of waters from the eastern arm of the NAD ... but? ?
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