Theodore:
In the US 2013 crop production, there are going to be problems period. The Greenland High is a stubborn one...damn stubborn.
The astronomic transits I see show that planting is already running behind average. It surely falls behind 2012's record fast start.
Cold, wet conditions will continue to stall early corn planting progress and new freeze warnings are out for southern Plains wheat at a time when wheat is vulnerable.
Spring seedings of other crops are also being slowed by the persistent cold temperatures as you can see that the planting of oats, rice and sorghum also lag behind averages at this time of year.
I continue to warn farmers to mind the potential for spring floods this year. There are warnings from snow melt trends over low-lying areas of Canada and the northern Plains where they grow spring wheat and barley. There is risk of inundations that comes with the extra fresh snow they got recently.
The risk of crop-damaging floods is increasing in Canada, which happens to be the world’s second-largest wheat exporter. The late-season snow and cold weather delays spring planting in regions like Canada's Prairie Provinces and into the northern U.S.
For instance, most of southern Manitoba and Saskatchewan, which produced 61 percent of Canada’s wheat last year, got at least 15 percent more precip than normal over the past 6 months. That's twice as much in the region from Saskatoon to just below the North Dakota border. On April 10, 2013 Manitoba listed its flood risk as "moderate to major" two days after Saskatchewan predicted above-normal runoffs.
March and April's cold climate has left major rivers and tributaries in Manitoba with thick ice cover and below-normal flows this month. I am forecasting that the melt will begin on April 18 and that increases the risk of aggravated overland flooding and tributary flows.
The excess snow and cold temperatures has surely brought about planting delays in some U.S. states bordering Canada. Spring wheat crops will have to be sown later in states like North Dakota, Montana and Minnesota, where snow was as heavy as many parts of Manitoba. All three states are the largest spring wheat growers.
Farmers in North Dakota are set to plant about 6.2 million acres of spring wheat this year, with about 2.9 million acres in Montana and 1.35 million in Minnesota. But ice on the upper Mississippi River in Minnesota has delayed the start of barge traffic, that's about three weeks late.
The ideal way is to use long-range climate forecasts to navigate. And since NOAA/NWS and a host of climate centers like the UK's MET Office are unable to provide seasonal forecasts, what happens is that everyone else, including farmers have to discover better ways to adjust to these climate conditions.
Again, according to my outlook, most of 2013, from now through to mid-September will be a very variable weather year. More so than last year. And again, the drought in the U.S. Plains/Midwest/South is still very much in play.
My forecast has been proven out by these extraordinary and unparalleled climate/weather extremes. For instance, dozens of record low temperatures have crossed over the Midwest and Plains States this past week, Meanwhile there were above average temperatures in the U.S. east coast in the mid-to-late 80 degree Fahrenheit range before temperatures fell by some 23+ degrees in 48 hours.
We should see improvement in climate/weather conditions the closer to April 18th. I have advised farmers that that date is the official start of the planting season according to my astrometeorological calculations.
Think about this:
After a record cold month of March, and now, in just the past week of early April 2013 there have been 64 record high temperatures throughout the the U.S. this, along with 319 record low minimum temperatures. In this new year temperature, rainfall and snowfall records have been set in the tens of thousands.
As a result of the cold March and first half of April, the planting season has been delayed. I warned about this.
My calculations show that closer to, and then by April 18th, things should improve, but again, we need to be very mindful of the cold temperatures during April; especially in the Midwest and Plain States.
The anomalous mid-spring snows and heavy rains again could easily create havoc for early spring planting for spring wheat and corn.
The recent weather really has been a mixed blessing for farmers. The rain is a boon for winter wheat crops on land that still too dry from last year's drought - and there are regions in the southern Plains that continue to miss out on precipitation.
About one-third of Colorado, western Kansas, western Oklahoma and all of western Texas - including the Texas panhandle - is absolutely dry.
The rain in these states like Oklahoma and Texas have helped American winter wheat crop improve, say about two points to 36%. Still, the cold temperatures in March and early April across the southwestern Plains will result in additional damage to jointing wheat - especially across south western Kansas, western Oklahoma, south eastern Colorado, and far north western Texas.
That shows slow fieldwork this month just as early planting of corn begins with the spring seeding window opening soon in the Corn Belt.
There still a layer of frozen soil across a wide region of the country. In Oklahoma, reports showed that corn sowing was 16% complete as of last week. That's behind the average of 20%, and the 31% made at this time last year in 2012.
In Missouri, seedings were only 4% finished so that's three points behind the average and down 17 points year on year.
And further north in the heart of the Corn Belt, preparations for sowing were held back again by the cold weather I forecasted. That meant that only 2.5 days the first 10 days of April were actually suitable for fieldwork in Iowa and Iowa is the top corn and soybean growing state, along with 2.8 in Illinois, which ranks second on both soybean and corn.
The problem is that while topsoil is thawed, a layer of frozen soil still persists across parts of northern Iowa at the end of the week. That about 5-12 inches below the surface. And the first week of April 2013 was the driest in nearly three months in Iowa with 75% of Iowa still in drought.
