Among the efforts to improve drought prediction is a study by the Water System Program’s Aiguo Dai on understanding climate models’ capabilities for accurate prediction of future drought patterns in the United States. When comparing real-world observations of historical precipitation, streamflow, and drought patterns to modeled predictions of drying trends generated by climate models, modeled and observed patterns often do not match. One reason for this is that climate models typically have difficulty with accurately replicating air-ocean interactions, which in turn affects projections of continental precipitation patterns. Climate scientists often inferred that this mismatch meant that climate models were over-predicting the probability of future drought-event occurrences and severity.
Gray, L. J., S. Crooks, C. Pascoe, S. Sparrow, and M. Palmer. “Solar and QBO Influences on the Timing of Stratospheric Sudden Warmings.” Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 61, no. 23 (May 10, 2004): 2777–2796. journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JAS-3297.1
THE HOCKEY SCHTICK reports: Paper finds solar influence on climate has been underestimated
A paper published in the journal of the Italian Astronomical Society finds that solar geomagnetic activity was highly correlated to global temperature changes over the period from 1856-2000. The authors "show that the index commonly used for quantifying long-term changes in solar activity, the sunspot number, accounts for only one part of solar activity and using this index leads to the underestimation of the role of solar activity in the global warming in the recent decades. A more suitable index is the geomagnetic activity which re?ects all solar activity, and it is highly correlated to global temperature variations in the whole period for which we have data."
From the Hockey Schtick: Paper finds another amplification mechanism by which the Sun controls climate
A lecture by professor Hiroko Miyahara of the University of Tokyo provides additional support to the Svensmark theory of cosmoclimatology, finding that both solar geomagnetic activity and the polarity of geomagnetic activity have significant effects upon cosmic rays and cloud formation. The polarity of solar geomagnetic activity flips with a 22-year cycle, with periods of negative polarity [such as the current solar cycle] having a greater effect upon cosmic rays and cloud formation.
The authors also find a remarkable correlation between solar rotational signals, cloud height, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation [third figure below], which may represent yet another mechanism by which small changes in solar activity can be amplified to large changes in climate. Other amplification mechanisms include via ocean oscillations, ozone, and sunshine hours/clouds.
New paper predicts a sharp decline in solar activity until 2100
A new paper published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Research shows solar activity peaked at the end of the 20th century, but predicts a strong decrease in solar activity until around 2100 AD to low levels similar to the Dalton Minimum.
I am sure there will be plenty of work for the CO2 experts. Heck world population continues to increase and there will be growing demand for greenhouse enhanced growing to extend seasons. There will need to be a lot of folks manning the CO2 supplementer systems to maximize greenhouse production.
icefisher "All these fifty years of conscious brooding have brought me no nearer to the answer to the question, “What are light quanta?”. Nowadays every Tom, Dicck and Harry thinks he knows it, but he is mistaken." (Einstein shortly before his death 1954)
This lecture on water, and how it gets its charge seems to be a game changer in many ways, across several disciplines, worth the time watching it. www.youtube.com/watch?v=XVBEwn6iWOo
It seems that the separation of charge in water molecules takes place by the action of electro magnetic radiation, particularly in the IR range and occurs in a nanometer range from the surface of liquid water down. Electricity directly from light in water, demonstrably so.
It would seem a better explanation for charge in clouds and the source of lightning. If this is the case, then sunlight is being converted to electrical power, my question would be, is the power of all lightning being considered in the solar energy balance, is it significant, if so could this be "the missing heat"?