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Post by trbixler on Oct 7, 2013 14:09:10 GMT
So its not CO2 after all and Svensmark was right, who would have guessed.
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Post by cuttydyer on Oct 8, 2013 10:44:17 GMT
New paper: The interplanetary magnetic field influences mid-latitude surface atmospheric pressure
Extract: "In particular, it affects the structure of the Rossby wave?eld, which is key in determining the trajectory of storm tracks [24]. The con?guration of the North Atlantic jet stream is particularly susceptible to changes in forcing [25]. In turn, so are the location and the timing of blocking events in this region, in which vortices are shed from the jet stream leading to prolonged periods of low or of high pressure"Our hypothesis is that the mid-latitude surface pressure is in?uenced by IMF By via a two-stage process. (i) As IMF By changes from dawnward to duskward, the electric potential difference between the ionosphere and the Earth’s surface, V, and the sea-level pressure p, decrease in the northern polar region; (ii) the mean zonal wind U at mid-latitudes increases resulting in an increase in the meridional wavelength (for simplicity labelled L in this ?gure; in text referred to as L ) of the stationary Rossby wave with an integer number of azimuthal waves m (at co-latitude and latitude D 90 ). The variations in V;p; U and L are reversed in the Southern Hemisphere. AbstractThe existence of a meteorological response in the polar regions to ?uctuations in the interplanetary magnetic ?eld (IMF) component By is well established. More controversially, there is evidence to suggest that this Sun–weather coupling occurs via the global atmospheric electric circuit. Consequently, it has been assumed that the effect is maximized at high latitudes and is negligible at low and mid-latitudes, because the perturbation by the IMF is concentrated in the polar regions. We demonstrate a previously unrecognized in?uence of the IMF By on mid-latitude surface pressure. The difference between the mean surface pressures during times of high positive and high negative IMF By possesses a statistically signi?cant mid-latitude wave structure similar to atmospheric Rossby waves. Our results show that a mechanism that is known to produce atmospheric responses to the IMF in the polar regions is also able to modulate pre-existing weather patterns at mid-latitudes. We suggest the mechanism for this from conventional meteorology. The amplitude of the effect is comparable to typical initial analysis uncertainties in ensemble numerical weather prediction. Thus, a relatively localized small-amplitude solar in?uence on the upper atmosphere could have an important effect, via the nonlinear evolution of atmospheric dynamics, on critical atmospheric processes. Keywords: solar variability, global surface pressure, global atmospheric electric circuit, atmospheric Rossby waves Extract of Discussion & ConclusionPreviously, proposals to link solar wind variations to signi?cant weather or climate variability have been dismissed on the grounds that the magnitude of the energy change in the atmosphere associated with the solar wind variability is far too small to impact the Earth’s system. However, this argument neglects the importance of nonlinear atmospheric dynamics [20]. The amplitudes of the IMF-related changes in atmospheric pressure gradient are comparable with the initial uncertainties in the corresponding zonal wind used in ensemble numerical weather prediction (NWP) [21] of 1 m s1. Such uncertainties are known to be important to subsequent atmospheric evolution and forecasting [22]. Consequently, we have shown that a relatively localized and small-amplitude solar in?uence on the upper polar atmosphere could have an important effect, via the nonlinear evolution of atmospheric dynamics on critical processes such as European climate and the breakup of Arctic sea ice [23]. In particular, it affects the structure of the Rossby wave?eld, which is key in determining the trajectory of storm tracks [24]. The con?guration of the North Atlantic jet stream is particularly susceptible to changes in forcing [25]. In turn, so are the location and the timing of blocking events in this region, in which vortices are shed from the jet stream leading to prolonged periods of low or of high pressure [26]. It has also been proposed that the low-frequency variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) arises as a result of variations in the occurrence of upper-level Rossby wavebreaking events over the North Atlantic [27]. The NAO itself is key to climate variability over the Atlantic–European sector stretching from the east coast of the United States to Siberia, and the Arctic to the subtropical Atlantic [28, 25]. Paper link: iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/4/045001/pdf/1748-9326_8_4_045001.pdf__________________________________________________________ Tim Channon's take on the paper (comments worth a read): tallbloke.wordpress.com/2013/10/08/paper-solar-wind-linked-electrically-to-terrestrial-mid-latitude-atmospheric-pressure-variation/#more-14476
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Post by trbixler on Oct 10, 2013 1:49:24 GMT
Maybe glen or Obama can comment. Of course this is all settled science and we can just tax the carbon to pay for healthcare! "Commentary on the Article about the Interplanetary Magnetic Field influences" link
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Post by cuttydyer on Oct 11, 2013 9:31:03 GMT
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Post by cuttydyer on Oct 16, 2013 9:54:05 GMT
The Hockey Schtick points to another "Paper finds another amplification mechanism by which the Sun controls climate"A paper published in Climate of the Past finds the position of the Southern Hemisphere Westerly Winds, "an important zonal circulation that influences large-scale precipitation patterns and ocean circulation," "is significantly correlated with reconstructed solar activity during the past 3000 years." The paper may represent another solar amplification mechanism by which small changes in solar activity are amplified to large effects on climate. Solar-forced shifts of the Southern Hemisphere Westerlies during the Holocene V. Varma1, M. Prange1,2, F. Lamy2,3, U. Merkel2, and M. Schulz1,2 1Department of Geosciences, University of Bremen, 28334 Bremen, Germany 2MARUM – Center for Marine Environmental Sciences, University of Bremen, Leobener Strasse, 28359 Bremen, Germany 3Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, 27568 Bremerhaven, Germany Abstract. The Southern Hemisphere Westerly Winds (SWW) constitute an important zonal circulation that influences large-scale precipitation patterns and ocean circulation. Variations in their intensity and latitudinal position have been suggested to exert a strong influence on the CO2 budget in the Southern Ocean, thus making them a potential factor affecting the global climate. In the present study, the possible influence of solar forcing on SWW variability during the Holocene is addressed. It is shown that a high-resolution iron record from the Chilean continental slope (41° S), which is interpreted to reflect changes in the position of the SWW, is significantly correlated with reconstructed solar activity during the past 3000 years. In addition, solar sensitivity experiments with a comprehensive global climate model (CCSM3) were carried out to study the response of SWW to solar variability. Taken together, the proxy and model results suggest that centennial-scale periods of lower (higher) solar activity caused equatorward (southward) shifts of the annual mean SWW. Paper link: www.clim-past.net/7/339/2011/cp-7-339-2011.pdfSchtick link: hockeyschtick.blogspot.co.uk/2013/10/paper-finds-another-amplification.html
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Post by cuttydyer on Oct 16, 2013 10:05:18 GMT
New paper: "Solar forcing of Caribbean drought events during the last millennium"ABSTRACT Anthropogenic climate change is expected to increase the frequency of drought events in the earth's subtropical regions. However, the climate dynamics of these regions are not fully understood and debate surrounds how external forcing factors such as solar and volcanic forcing influence long-term rainfall patterns in the subtropics. Here, we present the first high-resolution reconstruction of Caribbean drought events over the last millennium based on analyses of sediment geochemical data from a continuous high-resolution coastal lake-sediment record in Jamaica. The record suggests extended episodes of drought occurred during the so-called Little Ice Age (1400–1850 CE), which were associated with El-Niño-like conditions in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and controlled by low natural radiative forcing. Comparison of the Jamaican drought record with previously published palaeoclimatic archives from within the circum-Caribbean region suggests that dry conditions were associated with the southward migration of the Hadley Cell, a stronger North Atlantic High and the concomitant intensification of the north-east trade winds and the Caribbean Low Level Jet. We conclude that pre-industrial climatic change in the region was probably controlled by solar forcing and modulated by the combined influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation. Paper link
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Post by cuttydyer on Oct 23, 2013 12:24:33 GMT
New paper finds solar UV varies up to 100% during solar cycles, confirms solar amplification mechanism. The Schtick reports: A paper published today in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics notes that solar UV radiation can vary up to 100% during solar cycles, that it is "well accepted" these large changes in UV significantly affect stratospheric ozone production, and thereby act as a solar amplification mechanism on temperatures. The IPCC dismisses the role of the Sun in climate change by only modelling the tiny changes of the Total Solar Irradiance [TSI], while ignoring the large changes of up to 100% in the most energetic portion of the solar spectrum, the ultraviolet [UV] region. The UV spectrum also penetrates the deepest of any portion of the solar spectrum into the oceans [up to 100 meters] to heat the bulk of the oceans, unlike longwave infrared radiation from greenhouse gases, which can only penetrate a few millionths of one meter to cause evaporative cooling of the ocean 'skin' surface. From the Introduction to the paper: The Sun is the primary source of energy to the Earth’s atmosphere, so it is essential to understand the influence that solar flux variations may have on the climate system. This can be studied by investigating the effect of 11 yr solar flux variations on the atmosphere. Although total solar irradiance (TSI) shows only a small variation ( 0.1% per solar cycle), significant (up to 100 %) variations are observed in the ultraviolet (UV) region of the solar spectrum. In a “top-down” mechanism, these UV changes are thought to modify middle atmospheric (lower mesospheric and stratospheric) O3 [ozone] production, thereby indirectly altering background temperatures (for a review see Gray et al., 2010). These temperature changes can then modulate upward propagating planetary waves, and amplify the solar signal in stratospheric O3 and temperatures. The temperature changes will also affect the rates of chemical reactions which control ozone. This mechanism has been well accepted. Paper link: www.atmos-chem-phys.net/13/10113/2013/acp-13-10113-2013.pdfSchtick link: hockeyschtick.blogspot.co.uk/2013/10/new-paper-finds-solar-uv-varies-up-to.html
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Post by nautonnier on Oct 28, 2013 10:15:20 GMT
Real risk of a Maunder minimum 'Little Ice Age' says leading scientist "By looking back at certain isotopes in ice cores, he has been able to determine how active the sun has been over thousands of years.
Following analysis of the data, Professor Lockwood believes solar activity is now falling more rapidly than at any time in the last 10,000 years.
He found 24 different occasions in the last 10,000 years when the sun was in exactly the same state as it is now - and the present decline is faster than any of those 24."
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Post by Andrew on Oct 28, 2013 10:56:32 GMT
Real risk of a Maunder minimum 'Little Ice Age' says leading scientist "By looking back at certain isotopes in ice cores, he has been able to determine how active the sun has been over thousands of years.
Following analysis of the data, Professor Lockwood believes solar activity is now falling more rapidly than at any time in the last 10,000 years.
He found 24 different occasions in the last 10,000 years when the sun was in exactly the same state as it is now - and the present decline is faster than any of those 24." Fairly amazing that alarmism for cooling is being drummed up that requires funding even while alarmism for funding for warming still burns brightly Given the state of World economies you would imagine that nearly the whole lot are heading for alternative employment anyway.
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Post by nautonnier on Oct 28, 2013 12:38:53 GMT
Real risk of a Maunder minimum 'Little Ice Age' says leading scientist "By looking back at certain isotopes in ice cores, he has been able to determine how active the sun has been over thousands of years.
Following analysis of the data, Professor Lockwood believes solar activity is now falling more rapidly than at any time in the last 10,000 years.
He found 24 different occasions in the last 10,000 years when the sun was in exactly the same state as it is now - and the present decline is faster than any of those 24." Fairly amazing that alarmism for cooling is being drummed up that requires funding even while alarmism for funding for warming still burns brightly Given the state of World economies you would imagine that nearly the whole lot are heading for alternative employment anyway. I expect a seamless volte-face from climate scientists and the media and there will be attempts to blame cooling on CO2 and western industry... remember Hansen initially was behind the 70's ice-age scare which was due to 'industrial pollution' and 'global dimming'. This time they may find the change a little more difficult to get around the sheeple - but they have already got a lot of people parroting that more snow is because of warming. So cold will become the new hot - and away we go - just send us more research funds into the settled science.
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Post by glennkoks on Oct 28, 2013 13:24:06 GMT
Real risk of a Maunder minimum 'Little Ice Age' says leading scientist "By looking back at certain isotopes in ice cores, he has been able to determine how active the sun has been over thousands of years.
Following analysis of the data, Professor Lockwood believes solar activity is now falling more rapidly than at any time in the last 10,000 years.
He found 24 different occasions in the last 10,000 years when the sun was in exactly the same state as it is now - and the present decline is faster than any of those 24." I tried to find it via google but the question for me is what did the climate do the on the previous 24 occasions the sun was in exactly the same state it is now? I would assume a dip in worldwide temps?
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Post by nautonnier on Oct 28, 2013 17:09:16 GMT
Real risk of a Maunder minimum 'Little Ice Age' says leading scientist "By looking back at certain isotopes in ice cores, he has been able to determine how active the sun has been over thousands of years.
Following analysis of the data, Professor Lockwood believes solar activity is now falling more rapidly than at any time in the last 10,000 years.
He found 24 different occasions in the last 10,000 years when the sun was in exactly the same state as it is now - and the present decline is faster than any of those 24." I tried to find it via google but the question for me is what did the climate do the on the previous 24 occasions the sun was in exactly the same state it is now? I would assume a dip in worldwide temps? There is more information Over at Tallbloke's Talkshop here
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Post by glennkoks on Oct 28, 2013 17:28:47 GMT
I tried to find it via google but the question for me is what did the climate do the on the previous 24 occasions the sun was in exactly the same state it is now? I would assume a dip in worldwide temps? There is more information Over at Tallbloke's Talkshop here Thanks, I will check it out.
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Post by sigurdur on Oct 29, 2013 1:11:17 GMT
www.atmos-chem-phys.net/13/3945/2013/acp-13-3945-2013.pdfAbstract. The lack of long and reliable time series of so- lar spectral irradiance (SSI) measurements makes an accurate quantification of solar contributions to recent climate change difficult. Whereas earlier SSI observations and models pro- vided a qualitatively consistent picture of the SSI variability, recent measurements by the SORCE (SOlar Radiation and Climate Experiment) satellite suggest a significantly stronger variability in the ultraviolet (UV) spectral range and changes in the visible and near-infrared (NIR) bands in anti-phase with the solar cycle. A number of recent chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations have shown that this might have significant implications on the Earth’s atmosphere. Moti- vated by these results, we summarize here our current knowl- edge of SSI variability and its impact on Earth’s climate. We present a detailed overview of existing SSI measure- ments and provide thorough comparison of models available to date. SSI changes influence the Earth’s atmosphere, both directly, through changes in shortwave (SW) heating and therefore, temperature and ozone distributions in the strato- sphere, and indirectly, through dynamical feedbacks. We in- vestigate these direct and indirect effects using several state- of-the art CCM simulations forced with measured and mod- elled SSI changes. A unique asset of this study is the use of a common comprehensive approach for an issue that is usually addressed separately by different communities. We show that the SORCE measurements are difficult to reconcile with earlier observations and with SSI mod- els. Of the five SSI models discussed here, specifically NRLSSI (Naval Research Laboratory Solar Spectral Irra- diance), SATIRE-S (Spectral And Total Irradiance REcon- structions for the Satellite era), COSI (COde for Solar Ir- radiance), SRPM (Solar Radiation Physical Modelling), and OAR (Osservatorio Astronomico di Roma), only one shows a behaviour of the UV and visible irradiance qualitatively resembling that of the recent SORCE measurements. How- ever, the integral of the SSI computed with this model over the entire spectral range does not reproduce the measured cyclical changes of the total solar irradiance, which is an es- sential requisite for realistic evaluations of solar effects on the Earth’s climate in CCMs
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Post by sigurdur on Oct 29, 2013 1:20:23 GMT
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