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Post by cuttydyer on Sept 2, 2014 6:51:27 GMT
The Schtick reports: New paper finds a non-linear relationship between sunspots and global temperatures A new paper by Dr. Nicola Scafetta published in Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications rebuts the assertion that sunspots and global temperatures are not related. Dr. Scafetta instead finds a non-linear relation between sunspots and temperatures "can be recognized only using specific techniques of analysis that take into account non-linearity and filtering of the multiple climate change contributions" and "Multiple evidences suggest that global temperatures and sunspot numbers are quite related to each other at multiple time scales. Thus, they are characterized by cyclical fractional models. However, solar and climatic indexes are related to each other through complex and non-linear processes." A simple linear model based upon the "sunspot integral" and ocean oscillations explains 95% of climate change over the past 400 years. Dr. Scafetta's model [black line] based upon solar and anthropogenic forcing is performing much better than the IPCC models [green band] which dismiss the role of the Sun in climate change. Abstract Recently Gil-Alana et al. (2014) compared the sunspot number record and the temperature record and found that they differ: the sunspot number record is characterized by a dominant 11-year cycle while the temperature record appears to be characterized by a “singularity ” or “pole ” in the spectral density function at the “zero ” frequency. Consequently, they claimed that the two records are characterized by substantially different statistical fractional models and rejected the hypothesis that the Sun influences significantly global temperatures. I will show that: (1) the “singularity” or “pole” in the spectral density function of the global surface temperature at the “zero” frequency does not exist—the observed pattern derives from the post 1880 warming trend of the temperature signal and is a typical misinterpretation that discrete power spectra of non-stationary signals can suggest; (2) appropriate continuous periodograms clarify the issue and also show a signature of the 11-year solar cycle (amplitude View the MathML source), which since 1850 has an average period of about 10.4 year, and of many other natural oscillations; (3) the solar signature in the surface temperature record can be recognized only using specific techniques of analysis that take into account non-linearity and filtering of the multiple climate change contributions; (4) the post 1880-year temperature warming trend cannot be compared or studied against the sunspot record and its 11-year cycle, but requires solar proxy models showing short and long scale oscillations plus the contribution of anthropogenic forcings, as done in the literature. Multiple evidences suggest that global temperatures and sunspot numbers are quite related to each other at multiple time scales. Thus, they are characterized by cyclical fractional models. However, solar and climatic indexes are related to each other through complex and non-linear processes. Finally, I show that the prediction of a semi-empirical model for the global surface temperature based on astronomical oscillations and anthropogenic forcing proposed by Scafetta since 2009 has, up to date, been successful. Paper link: www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437114005226Schtick link: hockeyschtick.blogspot.co.uk/2014/09/new-paper-finds-non-linear-relationship.html
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Post by nautonnier on Sept 2, 2014 10:57:18 GMT
I think under all that he is saying that the previous paper was using metrics of Amplitude modulation to look for a linear relationship with temperature when they should have been using metrics for Frequency modulation and looking for multiple non-linear relationships with temperature.
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Post by cuttydyer on Sept 11, 2014 7:17:40 GMT
The Schtick reports: New paper finds Indian climate is influenced by solar activity A paper published today in Advances in Space Research finds "Indian climate appears to be influenced by solar variability" and the "mechanism for the Sun–climate relationship may be related solar polarity also." The authors conclude, "Comparison of the relationships between the Indian temperature anomalies and solar activity (SSN) provides evidence favouring a mechanism that depends not only on the level of sunspot activity but also on solar polarity." and in turn show that this may be related to Svensmark's cosmic ray theory of climate [one of many solar amplification mechanisms described in the scientific literature]: "Reversal in the polarity of the solar polar magnetic field takes place near the solar activity maximum in each solar cycle, and the large-scale interplanetary magnetic field is an extension of the solar polar magnetic field in space (Smith et al., 1978). It is also known that the large-scale structure of the interplanetary magnetic field is of basic importance for the long-term modulation of galactic cosmic rays (Venkatesan and Badruddin, 1990, Kudela et al., 2000 and Badruddin et al., 2007). There are indications that long-term variability in cosmic ray intensity influences the Earth’s climate (Svensmark and Friis-Christensen, 1997, Kirkby, 2007 and Rao, 2011). Thus, we have studied the Sun–climate relationship by averaging the data over the time scales of solar polarity epoch (peak to peak SSN). Averaged over this time scale, we found a significant improvement in correlation between and temperature anomalies as compared to decadal and solar activity cycle timescales." Abstract We use Indian temperature data of more than 100 years to study the influence of solar activity on climate. We study the Sun–climate relationship by averaging solar and climate data at various time scales; decadal, solar activity and solar magnetic cycles. We also consider the minimum and maximum values of sunspot number (SSN) during each solar cycle. This parameter SSN is correlated better with Indian temperature when these data are averaged over solar magnetic polarity epochs (SSN maximum to maximum). Our results indicate that the solar variability may still be contributing to ongoing climate change and suggest for more investigations. Paper link: www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0273117714003810Schtick link: hockeyschtick.blogspot.co.uk/2014/09/new-paper-finds-indian-climate-is.html
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Post by cuttydyer on Sept 18, 2014 9:05:04 GMT
A new paper under discussion for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences finds recent floods in Britain are "not exceptional," "there appears to be no shift in long term flood frequency," and "The principal finding of this work is that of the strong correlation between flood-rich phases and solar magnetic activity." Summary The apparent increase in flooding witnessed over the last decade appears in consideration of the long term flood record to be unexceptional, whilst the period since 2000 is considered as flood-rich, the period 1970–2000 is relatively “flood poor”, which may partly explain why recent floods are often perceived as extreme events. The much publicised (popular media) apparent change in flood frequency since 2000 may reflect natural variability, as there appears to be no shift in long term flood frequency (Fig. 4). In reviewing the flood series for European systems for which long flood series have been reconstructed, a complex picture is identified, whilst flood rich phases appear synchronous across many systems (ca. 1600 and 1765–1780), others show less synchronicity (1920s), whilst a number of prominent flood-rich phases at a European scale appear subdued or are not evident in the British FI (e.g. ca. 1740–1750). The principal finding of this work is that of the strong correlation between flood-rich phases and solar magnetic activity, indicating a clear driver for flooding patterns across Britain, what is still unclear is the relationship between the spatial/temporal distribution of flood clusters and solar activity. This work suggests that flood-rich periods relate to both positive and negative NAOI, with reasonable correspondence with previously diagnosed periods of climatic variability identified from individual series from across Europe. The inclusion of historical flood information provides a better understanding of long-term flood patterns. The detection of flood-rich periods and attribution to periods of climatic change are tentative. The historical records still hold a wealth of untapped information within the records for which specific discharges cannot be estimated, but from which indices could be extracted (Barriendos and Coeur, 2004). The wealth of information presented by the historical records presents valuable new information for flood risk assessment and management (Kjeldsen et al., 2014); as new flood chronologies become available, more detailed and complete indices based chronologies will improve the resolution and enhancing understanding of flood-rich and -poor periods, presenting a more complete depiction of the role of climate and extreme floods. Paper link: www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci-discuss.net/11/10157/2014/hessd-11-10157-2014.htmlSchtick take: hockeyschtick.blogspot.co.uk/2014/09/new-paper-finds-strong-correlation.html
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Post by nautonnier on Sept 18, 2014 11:12:54 GMT
Cutty, you should know that any history before the satellite era is seen as a collection fairy-stories except for treemometer readings of course. This is how 'the team' is able to disregard the Arctic history and of course Medieval, Roman and Minoan warm periods. Then of course Leif and followers will be repeating the mantra that the Sun has no effect on anything. All in all I am surprised the paper made it to publication
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Post by sigurdur on Sept 29, 2014 18:14:26 GMT
Abstract. We have examined the variation of carbon-14 content in annual tree rings, and investigated the transitions of the characteristics of the Schwabe/Hale (11-year/22-year) solar and cosmic-ray cycles during the last 1200 years, focusing mainly on the Maunder and Spoerer minima and the early Medieval Maximum Period. It has been revealed that the mean length of the Schwabe/Hale cycles changes associated with the centennial-scale variation of solar activity level. The mean length of Schwabe cycle had been ?14 years during the Maunder Minimum, while it was ?9 years during the early Medieval Maximum Period. We have also found that climate proxy record shows cyclic variations similar to stretching/shortening Schwabe/Hale solar cycles in time, suggesting that both Schwabe and Hale solar cycles are playing important role in climate change. In this paper, we review the nature of Schwabe and Hale cycles of solar activity and cosmic-ray flux during the Maunder Minimum and their possible influence on climate change. We suggest that the Hale cycle of cosmic rays are amplified during the grand solar minima and thus the influence of cosmic rays on climate change is prominently recognizable during such periods. journals.cambridge.org/download.php?file=%2FIAU%2FIAU5_S264%2FS1743921309993048a.pdf&code=11a5a6c71ce4c2f35d1724b76fbc7feb
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Post by cuttydyer on Nov 23, 2014 7:04:05 GMT
A new study has found that the Little Ice Age was global, rather than just affecting parts of the Northern Hemisphere. A new study has found that the Little Ice Age was global, rather than just affecting parts of the Northern Hemisphere. UK researchers show Little Ice Age was global, with implications for current Global Warming 18 November 2014 Gloucestershire, University of A team of UK researchers has shed new light on the climate of the Little Ice Age, and rekindled debate over the role of the sun in climate change. The new study, which involved detailed scientific examination of a peat bog in southern South America, indicates that the most extreme climate episodes of the Little Ice Age were felt not just in Europe and North America, which is well known, but apparently globally. The research has implications for current concerns over ‘Global Warming’. Climate sceptics and believers of Global Warming have long argued about whether the Little Ice Age (from c. early 15th to 19th Centuries) was global, its causes, and how much influence the sun has had on global climate, both during the Little Ice Age and in recent decades. This new study helps clarify those debates. The team of researchers, from the Universities of Gloucestershire, Aberdeen and Plymouth, conducted studies on past climate through detailed laboratory examination of peat from a bog near Ushuaia, Tierra del Fuego. They used exactly the same laboratory methods as have been developed for peat bogs in Europe. Two principal techniques were used to reconstruct past climates over the past 3000 years: at close intervals throughout a vertical column of peat, the researchers investigated the degree of peat decomposition, which is directly related to climate, and also examined the peat matrix to reveal the changing amounts of different plants that previously grew on the bog. The data show that the most extreme cold phases of the Little Ice Age—in the mid-15th and then again in the early 18th centuries—were synchronous in Europe and South America. There is one stark difference: while in continental north-west Europe, bogs became wetter, in Tierra del Fuego, the bog became drier—in both cases probably a result of a dramatic equator-ward shift of moisture-bearing winds. These extreme times coincide with periods when it is known that the sun was unusually quiet. In the late 17th to mid-18th centuries it had very few sunspots—fewer even than during the run of recent cold winters in Europe, which other UK scientists have linked to a relatively quiet sun. Professor Frank Chambers, Head of the University of Gloucestershire’s Centre for Environmental Change and Quaternary Research, who led the writing of the Fast-Track Research Report, said: “Both sceptics and adherents of Global Warming might draw succour from this work. Our study is significant because, while there are various different estimates for the start and end of the Little Ice Age in different regions of the world, our data show that the most extreme phases occurred at the same time in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. These extreme episodes were abrupt global events. They were probably related to sudden, equator-ward shifts of the Westerlies in the Southern Hemisphere, and the Atlantic depression tracks in the Northern Hemisphere. The same shifts seem to have happened abruptly before, such as c. 2800 years ago, when the same synchronous but opposite response is shown in bogs in Northwest Europe compared with southern South America. “It seems that the sun’s quiescence was responsible for the most extreme phases of the Little Ice Age, implying that solar variability sometimes plays a significant role in climate change. A change in solar activity may also, for example, have contributed to the post Little Ice Age rise in global temperatures in the first half of the 20th Century. However, solar variability alone cannot explain the post-1970 global temperature trends, especially the global temperature rise in the last three decades of the 20th Century, which has been attributed by the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.” Professor Chambers concluded: “I must stress that our research findings are only interpretable for the period from 3000 years ago to the end of the Little Ice Age. That is the period upon which our research is focused. However, in light of our substantiation of the effects of ‘grand solar minima’ upon past global climates, it could be speculated that the current pausing of ‘Global Warming’, which is frequently referenced by those sceptical of climate projections by the IPCC, might relate at least in part to a countervailing effect of reduced solar activity, as shown in the recent sunspot cycle.” Paper link: www.alphagalileo.org/ViewItem.aspx?ItemId=147372&CultureCode=en
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Post by sigurdur on Nov 27, 2014 0:59:55 GMT
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zaphod
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 210
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Post by zaphod on Nov 27, 2014 22:32:27 GMT
The Daily Mail does have a wide ranging and interesting science section. In my scanning through today, I found this article: "Earth is being protected by a 'Star Trek-style invisible shield': Scientists probe mysterious barrier blocking 'killer electrons'" www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2850566/Earth-protected-Star-Trek-style-invisible-shield-Scientists-probe-mysterious-barrier-blocking-killer-electrons.htmlThis is about current research on the Van Allen belt. However, the article contains these interesting statements: "An invisible shield, some 7,200 miles (11,600 km) above Earth, has been found blocking 'killer electrons' from bombarding our planet. These electrons can whip around the planet at near-light speed and have been known to threaten astronauts, fry satellites and damage space systems. If they hit Earth on a large scale, they could knock out power grids, radically change the planet's climate and drive up rates of cancer." Radically change the planet's climate. Well, well, well. At the end of the article, "'If the sun really blasts the Earth's magnetosphere with a coronal mass ejection (CME), I suspect it will breach the shield for a period of time.'" So... a CME hitting the Earth (and there are lots although seldom dead centre on us) would breach the shield and cause a climate change. Well, well, well.
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Post by Ratty on Nov 28, 2014 5:26:19 GMT
Who'd thought, eh? Well I never ....
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Post by Ratty on Nov 28, 2014 5:32:25 GMT
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Post by scpg02 on Nov 29, 2014 6:19:31 GMT
Correlation between solar activity and the local temperature of Antarctica during the past 11,000 years X.H. Zhao, , X.S. Feng, Abstract The solar impact on the Earth's climate change is a long topic with intense debates. Based on the reconstructed data of solar sunspot number (SSN), the local temperature in Vostok (T), and the atmospheric CO2 concentration data of Dome Concordia, we investigate the periodicities of solar activity, the atmospheric CO2 and local temperature in the inland Antarctica as well as their correlations during the past 11,000 years before AD 1895. We find that the variations of SSN and T have some common periodicities, such as the 208 year (yr), 521 yr, and ~1000 yr cycles. The correlations between SSN and T are strong for some intermittent periodicities. However, the wavelet analysis demonstrates that the relative phase relations between them usually do not hold stable except for the millennium-cycle component. The millennial variation of SSN leads that of T by 30–40 years, and the anti-phase relation between them keeps stable nearly over the whole 11,000 years of the past. As a contrast, the correlations between CO2 and T are neither strong nor stable. These results indicate that solar activity might have potential influences on the long-term change of Vostok's local climate during the past 11,000 years before modern industry. www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364682614002685
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Post by scpg02 on Dec 20, 2014 15:51:21 GMT
40 years ago, Britain's top climate scientist warned of a new ice age
/photo/1
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Post by acidohm on Dec 20, 2014 16:13:40 GMT
40 years ago, Britain's top climate scientist warned of a new ice age/photo/1 But this is not new scpg02? The 70's ice age worries are well documented....
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Post by scpg02 on Dec 20, 2014 16:15:03 GMT
no it is not new just denied by the AGW alarmists.
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