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Post by nautonnier on May 13, 2013 10:32:49 GMT
The Met Office has received huge funding increases due to AGW. Almost every UK government department has a sub-department on climate change. The entire country is being hit by huge energy bill increases to subsidise windfarms which are not the most popular industrial facility to build in scenic areas - ALL based on the Met Office firmly stated belief that carbon dioxide emissions are causing the atmosphere to 'trap' more heat and raise global temperatures by increasing water vapour etc etc. Do you really expect Dr Slingo to say "Sorry about that the Sun is what is causing the standstill in warming. Here's our funding back and we are dreadfully sorry about the number of people that died of cold in energy poverty"?
As someone in another blog pointed out - it would be a unimaginably unlikely coincidence for the Sun's heating effect to reduce by the right amount to maintain atmospheric temperatures level for 15 years by precisely balancing the human carbon dioxide emissions.
At some stage empirical observation will provide an unequivocal support or falsification. But it is apparent now that many are starting to query the one-club-golfer approach of climate science where the ONLY variable that has ANY effect on the Earth's climate is carbon dioxide. Judging by the German press there is a lot of unrest in the ranks of what were the uber-groen even Bild running a story querying global warming.
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Post by cuttydyer on May 22, 2013 7:53:28 GMT
2012 was a near miss for the Netherlands "Elfstedentocht" speed skating match. The expectations were high with a ten-day cold spell (temperatures as low as -22.9°C were recorded in Lelystad), however ten days of cold were insufficient for the event; the last (1997) event had taken place at the end of a 12-day cold spell. With predictions of solar decline could this race become a frequent event in 5 years time? Graph showing coincidence between the event being held and sunspot numbers: Sunspot forecast from Dr Habibullo I. Abdussamatov (Head of the Russian-Ukrainian Astrometria project on the board of the Russian segment of the International Space Station, Head of Space Research of the Sun Sector at the Pulkovo Observatory of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Dr. Sci.): Article link: tallbloke.wordpress.com/2013/05/21/the-elfstedentocht-proxy/Sunspot forecast from Dr Habibullo I. Abdussamatov: www.gao.spb.ru/english/astrometr/index1_eng.html
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Post by cuttydyer on May 29, 2013 15:30:59 GMT
There's currently a rather impressive coronal hole on the Sun's surface (image from the SolarHam Facebook page): One Facebook user enquired as to the possible impact on the earth's weather, another user posted a link to this research on the correlation between corona and the globally averaged temperature of the Earth. Extract: Brooklyn, NY -- An unusual interdisciplinary study by astronomers and climatologists has found a striking correlation between holes in the outermost layer of the sun -- or the corona -- and the globally averaged temperature of the Earth, suggesting that the Earth's atmospheric temperature may be strongly linked to solar magnetism changes over months or years. Link : www.spaceref.com/news/viewpr.html?pid=1145
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Post by nautonnier on May 31, 2013 9:56:34 GMT
There's currently a rather impressive coronal hole on the Sun's surface (image from the SolarHam Facebook page): One Facebook user enquired as to the possible impact on the earth's weather, another user posted a link to this research on the correlation between corona and the globally averaged temperature of the Earth. Extract: Brooklyn, NY -- An unusual interdisciplinary study by astronomers and climatologists has found a striking correlation between holes in the outermost layer of the sun -- or the corona -- and the globally averaged temperature of the Earth, suggesting that the Earth's atmospheric temperature may be strongly linked to solar magnetism changes over months or years. Link : www.spaceref.com/news/viewpr.html?pid=1145This is one of the indicators used by Piers Corbyn of Weather Action for forecasting weather. He has a better track record than the Met Office in many areas. To the extent that his company is running at a commercial profit providing longer range weather forecasts to industry. So when people say there is no connection between the Sun and weather/climate he is there as a commercial proof that there is.
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Post by cuttydyer on May 31, 2013 21:58:42 GMT
There's currently a rather impressive coronal hole on the Sun's surface (image from the SolarHam Facebook page): One Facebook user enquired as to the possible impact on the earth's weather, another user posted a link to this research on the correlation between corona and the globally averaged temperature of the Earth. Extract: Brooklyn, NY -- An unusual interdisciplinary study by astronomers and climatologists has found a striking correlation between holes in the outermost layer of the sun -- or the corona -- and the globally averaged temperature of the Earth, suggesting that the Earth's atmospheric temperature may be strongly linked to solar magnetism changes over months or years. Link : www.spaceref.com/news/viewpr.html?pid=1145This is one of the indicators used by Piers Corbyn of Weather Action for forecasting weather. He has a better track record than the Met Office in many areas. To the extent that his company is running at a commercial profit providing longer range weather forecasts to industry. So when people say there is no connection between the Sun and weather/climate he is there as a commercial proof that there is. I'm a Corbyn fan and twitter follower; I'd love to know the mechanisms behind his forecasting techniques.
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Post by cuttydyer on Jun 18, 2013 10:44:29 GMT
Seeing the wider picture: orbital variations are the primary driver of climate change on Earth. theresilientearth.com/ reports: Recently, José A. Rial, Jeseung Oh and Elizabeth Reischmann published a letter in Nature Geoscience in which they claim that forced synchronization can explain the strong 100,000-year glacial cycles through the alignment of insolation changes and internal climate oscillations. Here is how they describe their study, “Synchronization of the climate system to eccentricity forcing and the 100,000-year problem”: Synchronization is a fundamental nonlinear phenomenon and one basic mechanism of self-organization in complex systems, and synchronization of nonlinear oscillators to external forcing (see Supplementary Information) is commonly encountered in physics, chemistry, biology, engineering and climatology. We shall use the term forced synchronization (also called master–slave) to describe how the climate system (slave) gradually adjusted its natural rhythms to those of the forcing (master) over the past 5 million years. We will discuss evidence suggesting that forced synchronization by the 413-kyr orbital eccentricity (which modulates the amplitudes of the orbital 100-kyr eccentricity and precession) phase locked, frequency entrained, frequency modulated, and amplified the free oscillations of the climate system during the past 1.2?Myr. The evidence for this comes mostly from analyses of available data, particularly the 5-Myr-long LR04 stack of 57 globally distributed ?18O benthic proxies of total ice volume extensively reported on elsewhere. In addition, we assume that the climate system on the timescale of interest can be modelled as a nonlinear, externally forced self-sustained oscillator with free periods in the range of 104–105 years. This model will be used to help interpret key features of the LR04 stack and to demonstrate an example of how eccentricity synchronization may occur. The authors first compared the LR04 time series to a simple modulated harmonic signal, “We find compelling evidence that the climate system’s ~ 100-kyr glaciation cycles are frequency modulated by the 413-kyr component of eccentricity,” they report. To understand how a 413 kyr cycle can induce a 100 kyr climate cycle consider the fact that the cycles under discussion are not simple sine waves. They are complex composites with many harmonic frequencies contained within their signals. This is shown in the figures below. Link: theresilientearth.com/?q=content/100000-year-problem
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Post by glennkoks on Jun 18, 2013 14:36:58 GMT
cuttydyer,
The graph you provided about the long distance skating race in the Netherlands seems to strongly link the solar minimum with more ice. At least in the Netherlands. But colder winter's are not much of a problem for us. We can hunker down pretty well. What we need to be worried about is disruptive growing seasons caused by variations in the solar cycle. I have been searching for such a graph or data linking food production with the solar cycle. If you ever come across anything I please share it.
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Post by cuttydyer on Jun 18, 2013 15:42:44 GMT
cuttydyer, The graph you provided about the long distance skating race in the Netherlands seems to strongly link the solar minimum with more ice. At least in the Netherlands. But colder winter's are not much of a problem for us. We can hunker down pretty well. What we need to be worried about is disruptive growing seasons caused by variations in the solar cycle. I have been searching for such a graph or data linking food production with the solar cycle. If you ever come across anything I please share it. Hi Glenn, The following charts are copied from this paper: PDF LINK: arxiv.org/ftp/astro-ph/papers/0411/0411165.pdfConclusion: 1. The test of the interval distribution of the prices of consumables for Medieval England shows a good consistence with the interval distribution of sunspot minimum-minimum. It confirms our previously reported conclusions about the manifestation of the influence of solar activity on wheat prices in that period in the same region. 2. The test of the maximum-minimum price asymmetry for wheat in the USA in the 20-th century shows that the effect of the influence of solar activity also occurred, but its amplitude and its significance level were lower than that for Medieval England in the century of the Maunder Minimum. _______________________________________________________________________________________________ Edit: Google returned this: Link: www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/the_real_cause_of_higher_grain_prices/
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Post by glennkoks on Jun 18, 2013 16:02:50 GMT
cuttydyer,
Thank you. That is exactly what I was looking for. The graph of grain prices/monthly sunspot number is certainly intriguing. It's not perfect because economic events like the commodities bubble in 2008 can cause spikes or dips but it certainly "looks" like there is a good correlation between the solar cycle and grain prices.
You are an oasis of information. Thanks, again I am going to delve deeper into this.
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Post by cuttydyer on Jun 18, 2013 18:53:21 GMT
cuttydyer, Thank you. That is exactly what I was looking for. The graph of grain prices/monthly sunspot number is certainly intriguing. It's not perfect because economic events like the commodities bubble in 2008 can cause spikes or dips but it certainly "looks" like there is a good correlation between the solar cycle and grain prices. You are an oasis of information. Thanks, again I am going to delve deeper into this. My pleasure. After discovering the research of Hershel,Pustilni & Yom Din, a good friend of mine has made a respectable amount of money from the sale of hay to those less well prepared. Copied from an old post: The correlation between solar activity and the price of wheat (smaller crop = higher price) was first brought to the attention of the scientific community in 1801. Sir William Hershel (Royal Astronomer) published the results of his observations of sunspots, remarking on the connection between sunspots and wheat prices, in the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society.
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Post by cuttydyer on Jun 19, 2013 9:52:05 GMT
The Schtick reports: New paper finds the Indian winter and summer monsoons are driven by solar activity. A paper published today in The Holocene finds that the Indian winter and summer monsoons are driven by changes in solar activity. According to the authors, "Most of these periodicities [cycles in monsoon intensity] are consistent with known solar irradiance cycles, which drive the decadal- to centennial-scale variability of the summer monsoon." The paper adds to many other peer-reviewed publications demonstrating that the most influential weather and climate patterns on Earth including the Indian monsoons, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Madden-Julian Oscillation, and Arctic Oscillation are driven by solar activity. The IPCC dismisses the role of the Sun in climate change by only considering tiny changes in total solar irradiance while ignoring amplification via ocean and atmospheric oscillations, clouds, and ozone. Abstract The southeastern coastal plain of Sri Lanka contains Holocene sediment archives representing the winter monsoon variability because this region is protected from both summer monsoon and cyclonic rainfall. Chemical, biological, mineralogical, and physical climate proxies were studied in sediment cores extracted from three different coastal estuaries and lagoons situated on the southeastern coast to derive winter monsoon variability. These cores displayed minimum influence of sea level-related changes in sediments. Clay normalized proxy records suggest intervals of aridity from >7300 to ~6750, semi-aridity from ~6250 to 4600 yr BP [years before the present], and aridity from ~4000 to 3000 and ~1100 to < 500 cal. yr BP, with a short wet interval from ~6500 to 6250 cal. yr BP, and a wet interval from ~3000 to 1500 yr BP. Our results match the timing of previously published climate events for Holocene variations in the Indian summer monsoon. Wavelet analysis of the detrended climate proxy records identify significant periodicities at: ~20 ~28–32, ~64, ~100, ~128, ~192, ~256 yr in our data. Most of these periodicities are consistent with known solar irradiance cycles, which drive the decadal- to centennial-scale variability of the summer monsoon. Our multiproxy record for mid- to late-Holocene climate in southeastern Sri Lanka documents that Indian winter monsoon variability is statistically similar to Indian summer monsoon variability, suggesting similar forcing mechanisms. Link: hol.sagepub.com/content/23/7/945.abstract?rss=1&utm_source=feedly
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Post by magellan on Jun 24, 2013 3:43:14 GMT
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Post by neilhamp on Jun 24, 2013 7:27:05 GMT
BBC programme last night on the sun. In the last 5 minutes they interviewed Penn and gave a summary of his work. They then went on to mention the London ice fairs and the Little Ice Age
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Post by cuttydyer on Jun 24, 2013 10:25:00 GMT
Data Shows “Amazing Relationship” Between South German Flooding Frequency And Solar Activity NoTricksZone reports: Hysterical media, politicians, activists and scientists (e.g. Mojib Latif) tried to put the blame for the German flooding earlier this month on man-made climate change. But a recent doctoral dissertation shows that flooding in Southern Germany is very strongly related to solar activity. No correlation is found with CO2. Figure 1: Flood frequency of the Ammersee region (bottom) and Sonnenaktvität (top) (from Czymizik 2012 , PhD thesis). Phases of low solar activity are highlighted in blue. Whenever the sun was weak (high C14 values ??Auschlag) led to more floods. Flooding catastrophes at the Bavarian Lake Ammer occur predominantly during phases of weak solar activity By Fritz Vahrenholt and Sebastian Lüning (Translated, edited by P Gosselin) Link: www.kaltesonne.de/?p=11046NoTricksZone link: notrickszone.com/2013/06/24/data-show-amazing-relationship-between-south-german-flooding-frequency-and-solar-activity/
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Post by icefisher on Jun 24, 2013 17:25:47 GMT
Figure 1: Flood frequency of the Ammersee region (bottom) and Sonnenaktvität (top) (from Czymizik 2012 , PhD thesis). Phases of low solar activity are highlighted in blue. Whenever the sun was weak (high C14 values ??Auschlag) led to more floods. Flooding catastrophes at the Bavarian Lake Ammer occur predominantly during phases of weak solar activity By Fritz Vahrenholt and Sebastian Lüning (Translated, edited by P Gosselin) Thats a really interesting chart. You can clearly see the ocean oscillation pattern thats observable in the instrument temperature record then back to almost 1800 (the last peak was before the instrument record but right in time with the subsequent peaks) with the Dalton Minimum forming the first peak of that pattern. Earlier than that the oscillations are still there but the peak around 1760 is pretty small while a far grander oscillation seems to dominate creating far high amplitudes like by an x4 factor. One thing CO2 should do is moderate the climate making days cooler (by absorbing more incoming IR) and nights hotter (by blocking outgoing IR), only in the world of postnormal science does politics allow turning facts onto its head and allow the charlatans to claim more extreme weather. Very clearly this chart shows more extreme weather associated with the LIA and low solar activity. Fascinating stuff.
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