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Post by cuttydyer on Jul 16, 2013 7:45:15 GMT
I don't think there is enough good data to make a solar prediction with confidence. Maybe not, but it's noteworthy that institutions such as the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan (NAOJ) are prepared to mention the potential for a Maunder / Dalton minimum event in their public press releases: Solar polar observation is extremely important for forecasting solar activity in the future. The solar minimum, which is the period from the end of the previous solar activity cycle to the beginning of the current cycle, has continued longer than expected (An ordinary solar cycle is approximately 11 years, while the current cycle is 12.6 years). Also, up until now, current solar activity has been more sluggish than previously. Furthermore, signs that the large solar magnetic field has changed to a quadrupole structure were discovered by the current "Hinode" observations. These research results show that the solar dynamo, which is a process generating magnetic fields within the Sun, is bringing about changes seen for the first time since the start of modern-style solar observation. It is believed that the Sun has previously experienced these circumstances during the Maunder Minimum and Dalton Minimum, which are said to have been periods when the Earth's climate was colder. Attention will be paid to future changes.Link: hinode.nao.ac.jp/news/120419PressRelease/index_e.shtml
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Post by cuttydyer on Jul 16, 2013 9:48:42 GMT
The Schtick reports: New paper finds another amplification mechanism by which the Sun controls climate A new paper published in Atmospheric Chemistry & Physics finds a "robust response" of Northern Hemisphere climate to the 11 year sunspot cycle, via changes in atmospheric circulation known as the Eurasian pattern [EU]. According to the authors, tiny variations in solar activity over a solar cycle are amplified by the Eurasian pattern to produce European temperature changes exceeding 1C, which by way of comparison, exceeds the observed Northern Hemisphere warming of 0.8C over the past 163 years. The IPCC claims tiny variations in solar activity over solar cycles cannot affect climate, but this paper and hundreds of others demonstrate solar activity has greatly amplified effects upon climate via ocean oscillations, stratospheric ozone, sunshine hours/clouds, and atmospheric oscillations such as the Madden-Julian oscillation, Quasi-biennial oscillation, Aleutian Low, and Eurasian pattern.Paper link: www.atmos-chem-phys.net/13/6275/2013/acp-13-6275-2013.htmlSchtick link: hockeyschtick.blogspot.co.uk/2013/07/new-paper-finds-another-mechanism-by_15.html
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Post by cuttydyer on Jul 18, 2013 8:32:51 GMT
New paper finds the Sun controls climate, not man-made CO2: A new peer-reviewed paper published in Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews points out the many problems of the anthropogenic global warming hypothesis and finds "the role of the sun in the presently observed global warming has been greatly underestimated." The authors review "the prime role that the sun should have on the earth's climate with regard to solar cycles’ activity and irradiance, cosmic rays and cloud formation" and conclude "that a natural signal of solar forcing has been mistakenly overlooked for an anthropogenic change, maybe owing to their quite similar effects on climate. For the moment, science does not really have a complete and total understanding of the factors affecting the earth's complex climate system and therefore no sound conclusions can be drawn." Paper link: www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032113003651Schtick link: hockeyschtick.blogspot.co.uk/2013/07/new-paper-finds-sun-controls-climate.html
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Post by mkelter on Jul 19, 2013 23:16:33 GMT
New paper finds the Sun controls climate, not man-made CO2: A new peer-reviewed paper published in Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews points out the many problems of the anthropogenic global warming hypothesis and finds "the role of the sun in the presently observed global warming has been greatly underestimated. . ." SHOULDN'T THIS BE POSTED UNDER THE "DUH" THREAD?
This falls into the same obvious conclusion categories as:
1. Bigger breasts make for bigger tips
In 2009, Cornell professor Michael Lynn published "Determinants and Consequences of Female Attractiveness and Sexiness: Realistic Tests with Restaurant Waitresses" in the Archives of Sexual Behavior. The study found that waitresses with bigger breasts got bigger tips, as did those who were slender and blonde.
DUH!
link
2. Performance-enhancing drugs enhance performance Scores of "performance-enhancing" Olympians over the years weren't wrong. According to a study by the World Anti-Doping Agency, injections of testosterone and human growth hormones help athletes go faster. "
DUH!
3. Pigs love mud
Turns out pigs aren't just putting on a show when they haul butt around their muddy quarters, diving into the muck. They actually like it.
link
DUH!
I'm planning to do a study that demonstrates People want to get grant money to study the obvious. I need to find grant funding first.
DUH!
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 20, 2013 1:28:18 GMT
Dang.....I missed doing the tip study........
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Post by cuttydyer on Jul 23, 2013 9:22:39 GMT
New paper finds mechanism by which the Sun controls floods in the European Alps A new paper published in Geophysical Research Letters reconstructs floods in the European Alps over the past 2000 years and finds flooding increased during periods of solar minimums. The authors find, "The all-season flood frequency...increased during solar minima, suggesting solar-induced circulation changes resembling negative conditions of the North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO] as controlling atmospheric mechanism." The paper corroborates several other published papers finding that flooding is more common during cool periods with low solar activity in comparison to warm periods, the opposite of claims by climate alarmists. The paper adds to many others finding amplification mechanisms by which small changes in solar activity can have large amplified effects on climate, via ocean oscillations such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, atmospheric oscillations such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation, Quasi-biennial Oscillation, Aleutian Low, and Eurasian pattern, as well as via stratospheric ozone, and sunshine hours/clouds. Paper link: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50741/abstractSchtick link: hockeyschtick.blogspot.co.uk/2013/07/new-paper-finds-mechanism-by-which-sun.html
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Post by cuttydyer on Jul 24, 2013 10:07:39 GMT
The Schtick reports: New paper finds global warming since the Little Ice Age explained by natural processes, not man-made CO2 A new paper published in Climate explains the halt of global warming due to changes in solar activity and ocean oscillations, and finds most of the warming and recovery from the Little Ice Age during the 19th and 20th centuries was due to natural processes rather than man-made CO2. Excerpts: It is at least problematic, therefore, to consider this near linear increase in temperature during the 19th and 20th centuries as mainly due to CO2. A halt and even a slight decrease in the rising trend after 2000 can therefore be expected, on the basis of this spectral analysis. It is quite likely, therefore, that the near linear increase due to LIA recovery has been temporarily overwhelmed by the multi-decadal oscillation, which had reached a positive peak in about the year 2000. Conclusion: It is likely that both the near linear increase and multi-decadal oscillation are primarily natural changes. Thus, in order to estimate the effects caused by CO2 over the last two centuries, it is important to isolate these natural components of climate change from real temperature data. Paper link: scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/reprint/present_halting.pdfSchtick link: hockeyschtick.blogspot.co.uk/2013/07/new-paper-finds-global-warming-since.html
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Post by mkelter on Jul 24, 2013 11:18:02 GMT
The Schtick reports: New paper finds global warming since the Little Ice Age explained by natural processes, not man-made CO2 A new paper published in Climate explains the halt of global warming due to changes in solar activity and ocean oscillations, and finds most of the warming and recovery from the Little Ice Age during the 19th and 20th centuries was due to natural processes rather than man-made CO2. . . NO SURPRISE HERE. . . WHEN THE GOVERNMENT MONEY RAN OUT, SO DID ALL THE SUPPORT FOR GLOBAL WARMING.
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Post by cuttydyer on Jul 25, 2013 9:25:21 GMT
This may date back to 2010, but it's new to me: NEW MAUNDER MINIMUM IN SOLAR ACTIVITY AND COSMIC RAY FLUXES IN THE NEAREST FUTURE P.N. Lebedev Physical Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia Skobel’tsyn Research Institute of Nuclear Physics, Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia ConclusionIt is shown that the long-term solar activity minima occurred in the past had been taken place in the periods when center of mass of the solar system (the Sun and external planets without Jupiter) was outside of the Sun. The spectral analysis of the long set of data on solar activity (sunspot number RZ) shows the presence of spectral lines with the periods close to the combinations of rotation periods of two (or several) planets around the Sun. The conclusion was made that the planets influence the process of sunspot formation. The trigger for the start of sunspot formation is the falling of celestial bodies (comets, asteroids and others) on the solar photosphere. The gravitation fields of the Sun and planets govern the motions of these bodies. These field direct (or deflect) these celestial bodies to the solar photosphere. When center mass of the solar system is outside of the Sun the most of celestial bodies does not fall on the Sun and we have long-term solar activity minimum. Now we are at the beginning of a new grand solar activity minimum. The prognosis of solar activity for the period of present time – 2020 is given. The maximum value of RZ will not exceed 50 (according to the Brussels scale of sunspots). Link: ecrs2010.utu.fi/done/posters/session1/1.62_Stozhkov.pdf
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Post by trbixler on Jul 25, 2013 13:50:34 GMT
We have not seen cycle 25 as yet.
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Post by cuttydyer on Jul 25, 2013 14:17:32 GMT
We have not seen cycle 25 as yet. Let's hope all that hidden deep ocean heat will decide to make an appearance...
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Post by mkelter on Jul 26, 2013 2:48:29 GMT
SOLAR CYCLE 23, MAX AND MIN:SOLAR CYCLE 24 FIVE DAYS AGO HAVE WE PEAKED YET?
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Post by cuttydyer on Jul 26, 2013 8:56:28 GMT
The Schtick reports: New paper finds another amplification mechanism by which the Sun controls climate A paper published today in Quaternary Research implies solar activity caused changes in the Asian monsoon, which in turn causes large-scale climate change over much of the globe. The paper adds to many others finding amplification mechanisms by which small changes in solar activity can have large amplified effects on climate, via ocean oscillations such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, atmospheric oscillations such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation, Quasi-biennial Oscillation, Aleutian Low, Eurasian pattern, & Asian monsoon, and via stratospheric ozone, and sunshine hours/clouds. Abstract The regional climate correlation within the Northern Hemisphere in the cold/dry mid-Younger Dryas event (YD) remains elusive. A key to unraveling this issue is sufficient knowledge of the detailed climate variability at the low latitudes. Here we present a high-resolution (3-yr) ?18O record of an annually laminated stalagmite from central China that reveals a detailed Asian monsoon (AM) history from 13.36 to 10.99 ka. The YD in this record is expressed as three phases, characterized by gradual onsets but rapid ends. During the mid-YD, the AM [Asian monsoon] variability exhibited an increasing trend superimposed by three centennial oscillations, well-correlated to changes in Greenland temperatures. These warming/wetting fluctuations show a periodicity of ~ 200 yr, generally in agreement with centennial changes in cosmogenic nuclides indicated by the 10Be flux from the Greenland ice. This relationship implies that centennial-scale climate changes during the mid-YD are probably caused by solar output and rapidly transported over broad regions through atmosphere reorganization.
Paper link: www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0033589413000732Schtick link: hockeyschtick.blogspot.co.uk/2013/07/new-paper-finds-another-amplification.html
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Post by cuttydyer on Jul 26, 2013 11:39:07 GMT
Solar forcing of winter climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere Sarah Ineson1*, Adam A. Scaife1, Jeff R. Knight1, James C. Manners1, Nick J. Dunstone1, Lesley J. Gray2 and Joanna D. Haigh3 An influence of solar irradiance variations on Earth’s surface climate has been repeatedly suggested, based on correlations between solar variability and meteorological variables1. Specifically, weaker westerly winds have been observed in winters with a less active sun, for example at the minimum phase of the 11-year sunspot cycle2–4.With some possible exceptions5,6, it has proved difficult for climate models to consistently reproduce this signal7,8. Spectral Irradiance Monitor satellite measurements indicate that variations in solar ultraviolet irradiance may be larger than previously thought9. Here we drive an ocean–atmosphere climate model with ultraviolet irradiance variations based on these observations. We find that the model responds to the solar minimum with patterns in surface pressure and temperature that resemble the negative phase of the North Atlantic or Arctic Oscillation, of similar magnitude to observations. In our model, the anomalies descend through the depth of the extratropical winter atmosphere. If the updated measurements of solar ultraviolet irradiance are correct, low solar activity, as observed during recent years, drives cold winters in northern Europe and the United States, and mild winters over southern Europe and Canada, with little direct change in globally averaged temperature. Given the quasiregularity of the 11-year solar cycle, our findings may help improve decadal climate predictions for highly populated extratropical regions. Paper link: yly-mac.gps.caltech.edu/z_temp/4%20soozen/zjunk/solar%20cycle%20master%20/Ineson2011%20*%20.pdf
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Post by juancarnuba on Jul 29, 2013 1:33:57 GMT
If UV radiation increases, I would assume it would be all spectral bands of UV, UVA, UVB, UVC and UVV. Wouldn't you? So, if UVV is the bandwidth that creates ozone, I would also assume that there would be a thicker layer of ozone. And therefore more shielding from the Sun and cooler temps. Just a thought.
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