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Post by missouriboy on Jan 4, 2018 23:36:12 GMT
Many forecasts suggest that SC25 will not start until late 2019 or early 2020 ... right in line with Astro's 2020-2022 deep cold forecast. If you believe Archibald, it will be longer. Another 2 years of very low sunspot counts. I worked up this chart from the files of spotless days that Ratty found. You can see for yourself where the notorious winters lie. The minimum between SC24 and 25 may accumulate as many (or more) spotless days as between SC23 and 24, which was the largest since the early 1900s. Don't sell your condo in Mexico.
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 5, 2018 1:40:06 GMT
The correlation is astounding! I did a quick think of winter storms that I quickly remember, and the spotless days.........wowwwsaaaaaaaa!
Write a paper!!!!!!
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Post by nautonnier on Jan 5, 2018 1:45:33 GMT
Naut the understanding I have is that inactive solar cycles are likely also to be long. In fact David cant remember his name used cycle length in his studies. My concern is that the NASA's etc are talking short cycle for this one but it may be a very extended low period with some muted bumps and hops. Astro would be a help for this discussion and he may be able to lift our understanding of the mechanisms he is using. Archibald? Archibald uses solar and surface data to predict 4.9°C fall (!)From Joanne Nova: "We can now predict solar cycle length even before the first sunspots of that cycle have become visible. From Altrock, R.C., 2010, “The Progress of Solar Cycle 24 at High Latitudes”:
“Cycle 24 began its migration at a rate 40% slower than the previous two solar cycles, thus indicating the possibility of a peculiar cycle. However, the onset of the “Rush to the Poles” of polar crown prominences and their associated coronal emission, which has been a precursor to solar maximum in recent cycles (cf. Altrock 2003), has just been identified in the northern hemisphere. Peculiarly, this “rush” is leisurely, at only 50% of the rate in the previous two cycles.”
If Solar Cycle 24 is progressing at 60% of the rate of the previous two cycles, which averaged ten years long, then it is likely to be 16.6 years long. This is supported by examining Altrock’s green corona diagram from mid-2011 above. In the previous three cycles, solar minimum occurred when the bounding line of major activity (blue) intersects 10° latitude (red). For Solar Cycle 24, that occurs in 2026, making it 17 years long.
For humanity, that is going to be something quite significant, because it will make Solar Cycle 24 four years longer than Solar Cycle 23. With a temperature – solar cycle length relationship for the North-eastern US of 0.7°C per year of solar cycle length, temperatures over Solar Cycle 25 starting in 2026 will be 2.8°C colder than over Solar Cycle 24, which in turn is going to be 2.1°C colder than Solar Cycle 23.
The total temperature shift will be 4.9°C for the major agricultural belt that stretches from New England to the Rockies straddling the US – Canadian border. At the latitude of the US-Canadian border, a 1.0°C change in temperature shifts growing conditions 140 km – in this case, towards the Gulf of Mexico. The centre of the Corn Belt, now in Iowa, will move to Kansas."We have just had snow in Florida and have another hard freeze warning for tonight ....
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 5, 2018 2:38:26 GMT
The correlation is astounding! I did a quick think of winter storms that I quickly remember, and the spotless days.........wowwwsaaaaaaaa! Write a paper!!!!!! I could but NASA has already decided that spotless days are caused by CO2 under very special circumstances at solar minimum.
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 5, 2018 4:27:12 GMT
Naut -FOX news says you guys have iguanas falling out of trees from the cold.
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Post by neilhamp on Jan 5, 2018 8:09:14 GMT
Armagh temperature records in Ireland go back a long way These temperatures have been plotted against the length of the solar cycle
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Post by nautonnier on Jan 5, 2018 10:33:28 GMT
Naut -FOX news says you guys have iguanas falling out of trees from the cold. It's true. Less than 5C and they start getting very sluggish much below that and their muscles stop working -- >>thud<< When the sun comes up and warms them back up off they go again.
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Post by blustnmtn on Jan 5, 2018 13:09:04 GMT
Naut -FOX news says you guys have iguanas falling out of trees from the cold. It's true. Less than 5C and they start getting very sluggish much below that and their muscles stop working -- >>thud<< When the sun comes up and warms them back up off they go again. So, I guess I’m self identifying as an Iguana...don’t judge.
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 5, 2018 13:52:59 GMT
Armagh temperature records in Ireland go back a long way These temperatures have been plotted against the length of the solar cycle Neil. Is there a link to the article or site that came from? The image link didn't give me anything.
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Post by neilhamp on Jan 5, 2018 20:10:16 GMT
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Post by mondeoman on Jan 5, 2018 20:48:10 GMT
Armagh temperature records in Ireland go back a long way These temperatures have been plotted against the length of the solar cycle No-e, nope, nothing to do with the sun at all, nope.
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Post by RicksFormula on Jan 5, 2018 22:07:47 GMT
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Post by neilhamp on Jan 6, 2018 9:10:59 GMT
Thanks Rick, I have been looking for that for years
"Every day’s delay until the first sunspots of Solar Cycle 24 will mean that the Earth’s climate will be harsher in the second decade of the 21st century."
This seems to agree with Astromet's forecast
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 6, 2018 17:50:41 GMT
I was searching to see if David Archibald had updated his forecasts since we now have data for another decade. Still looking ... so far found this from 2012. wattsupwiththat.com/2012/08/13/when-will-it-start-cooling/ Leif Svalgaard's opinion at that time was that SC24 looked more like SC14 (1902-13) as the specifics of SC5, in his words, was very uncertain. Looking at solar flux and spotless days, SC24 does seem to resemble SC14 or SC12 in terms of magnitude. SC12 was coming off the high solar cycle of the 1860s-70s descending into the 3-cycle minimum of 1873-1913. Visually, SC24 looks somewhat lower than these. Either way, interesting times a-comin ... in a data rich world. We may be entertained by even more of the marvelous things that CO2 is capable of. Don't expect desperate people to "go gentle into that good night". Some interesting reading on climate change processes by Stephen Wilde (August 13, 2012 at 11:08 am) in the commentary.
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Post by Ratty on Jan 7, 2018 5:59:55 GMT
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