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Post by icefisher on Jan 21, 2019 5:54:51 GMT
The "Maunder Minimum soon" predictions have some logic behind them but still haven't found much support in the solar science community. Since Cycle 24 has proven nearly all theories for predicting solar activity to be wrong, I thought we might see some new thinking and perhaps more support for a near-term "dimming" of the sun. The fact that some scientists on the margin of solar science are confident enough to make specific predictions for Cycle 25 and 26, ie, Cycle 25 half as active as Cycle 24 and close to zero activity in Cycle 26, the odds of something happening seem to be a little higher. But even after the new studies and in spite of the very cold and snowy weather in the northern US this week, I'm still not quite ready to put it in my long-term global temperature prediction. Is anyone here convinced there's a Maunder Minimum just ahead? Seems to me the solar science community is playing hop scotch with solar models picking new favorites each solar cycle. Each is no doubt parameterized with past climate cycles and prediction made for the upcoming cycle. The winner is crowned the new king. More or less how climate models work except their cycle is to infinity so they got together and drew a consensus line between a wide spread of models doing forward predictions on the assumptions that the industrial age warming was due to CO2. They feel the 400 to 500% spread in the outcomes gives them adequate coverage. Anything less is considered observation error.
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 21, 2019 11:10:36 GMT
The "Maunder Minimum soon" predictions have some logic behind them but still haven't found much support in the solar science community. Since Cycle 24 has proven nearly all theories for predicting solar activity to be wrong, I thought we might see some new thinking and perhaps more support for a near-term "dimming" of the sun. The fact that some scientists on the margin of solar science are confident enough to make specific predictions for Cycle 25 and 26, ie, Cycle 25 half as active as Cycle 24 and close to zero activity in Cycle 26, the odds of something happening seem to be a little higher. But even after the new studies and in spite of the very cold and snowy weather in the northern US this week, I'm still not quite ready to put it in my long-term global temperature prediction. Is anyone here convinced there's a Maunder Minimum just ahead? Nobody in Australia. Down under that would be the Morrison Minimum perhaps?
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Post by Ratty on Jan 21, 2019 11:22:33 GMT
Nobody in Australia. Down under that would be the Morrison Minimum perhaps? Morrison Maximum. Heat into the foreseeable future ....
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 21, 2019 14:36:04 GMT
The "Maunder Minimum soon" predictions have some logic behind them but still haven't found much support in the solar science community. Since Cycle 24 has proven nearly all theories for predicting solar activity to be wrong, I thought we might see some new thinking and perhaps more support for a near-term "dimming" of the sun. The fact that some scientists on the margin of solar science are confident enough to make specific predictions for Cycle 25 and 26, ie, Cycle 25 half as active as Cycle 24 and close to zero activity in Cycle 26, the odds of something happening seem to be a little higher. But even after the new studies and in spite of the very cold and snowy weather in the northern US this week, I'm still not quite ready to put it in my long-term global temperature prediction. Is anyone here convinced there's a Maunder Minimum just ahead? Past cycles indicate an event similar to a Maunder Minimum is going to happen. Will worldwide temps fall much? I don't think so. What will happen is weather will become more erratic on a consistent basis. I base my thoughts on ND proxies.
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 21, 2019 15:47:15 GMT
The "Maunder Minimum soon" predictions have some logic behind them but still haven't found much support in the solar science community. Since Cycle 24 has proven nearly all theories for predicting solar activity to be wrong, I thought we might see some new thinking and perhaps more support for a near-term "dimming" of the sun. The fact that some scientists on the margin of solar science are confident enough to make specific predictions for Cycle 25 and 26, ie, Cycle 25 half as active as Cycle 24 and close to zero activity in Cycle 26, the odds of something happening seem to be a little higher. But even after the new studies and in spite of the very cold and snowy weather in the northern US this week, I'm still not quite ready to put it in my long-term global temperature prediction. Is anyone here convinced there's a Maunder Minimum just ahead? Still a crap shoot ... but here is what I think we "know". We are close to the bottom of the weakest solar cycle in over a hundred years. Its vital signs track closer to cycle 12 (1878-1890) than they do to cycle 20 (1964-1976). Cycle 20 was a singleton event sandwiched in a 100 year set of larger solar cycles. Singleton weak cycles are rare (only cycle 20) in the series going back to the start of the Maunder. Previous gold star winner Dr Svalgaard is forecasting cycle 25 to be "slightly" stronger than cycle 24, which could make it similar to cycle 13, the 2nd in a 5-cycle string of weaker cycles that extended through the 1920s. Enter Dr Zharkova with a new double dynamo model forecasting a 3-cycle set of very low cycles following cycle 24 ... playing to reasonably good reviews, which Dr Svalgaard seems to be only marginally trashing. The temperature records we have seem to show cooling whenever these weak cycles set in ... although there appear to be lags. Certain studies show that IPCCers have adjusted downward the recorded highs of the 1930s and adjusted upward the recorded lows of the 1970s using questionable logic and techniques. If I was a Vegas odds maker, would I bet heavily against a continuation of weakness and a likely but unknown drop in global temperatures? I think my answer would have to be NO. Joe Bastardi believes it will take "a while" for residual heat acquired by the oceans over 40 years of an energetic sun to "bleed off", but I don't think we have quantified "a while". Past measures for the Atlantic suggest upwards of a decade, but our sample size is small (two) and quantification may not be the best. The Pause may represent the balance point preceding the beginning of that "bleed off". Joe seems to believe we will set another slightly higher plateau, but there are signs that the shallower downward slope following the 2015 peak may accelerate. Here we may only be talking about "when and how much". Even IPCCers probably understand that, no matter how much insulation you have, if ya turn the furnace down in the cold of space, the house may get colder. But I think we should avoid becoming the antithesis of the warm extremists.
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Post by icefisher on Jan 21, 2019 17:56:27 GMT
The "Maunder Minimum soon" predictions have some logic behind them but still haven't found much support in the solar science community. Since Cycle 24 has proven nearly all theories for predicting solar activity to be wrong, I thought we might see some new thinking and perhaps more support for a near-term "dimming" of the sun. The fact that some scientists on the margin of solar science are confident enough to make specific predictions for Cycle 25 and 26, ie, Cycle 25 half as active as Cycle 24 and close to zero activity in Cycle 26, the odds of something happening seem to be a little higher. But even after the new studies and in spite of the very cold and snowy weather in the northern US this week, I'm still not quite ready to put it in my long-term global temperature prediction. Is anyone here convinced there's a Maunder Minimum just ahead? Still a crap shoot ... but here is what I think we "know". We are close to the bottom of the weakest solar cycle in over a hundred years. Its vital signs track closer to cycle 12 (1878-1890) than they do to cycle 20 (1964-1976). Cycle 20 was a singleton event sandwiched in a 100 year set of larger solar cycles. Singleton weak cycles are rare (only cycle 20) in the series going back to the start of the Maunder. Previous gold star winner Dr Svalgaard is forecasting cycle 25 to be "slightly" stronger than cycle 24, which could make it similar to cycle 13, the 2nd in a 5-cycle string of weaker cycles that extended through the 1920s. Enter Dr Zharkova with a new double dynamo model forecasting a 3-cycle set of very low cycles following cycle 24 ... playing to reasonably good reviews, which Dr Svalgaard seems to be only marginally trashing. The temperature records we have seem to show cooling whenever these weak cycles set in ... although there appear to be lags. Certain studies show that IPCCers have adjusted downward the recorded highs of the 1930s and adjusted upward the recorded lows of the 1970s using questionable logic and techniques. If I was a Vegas odds maker, would I bet heavily against a continuation of weakness and a likely but unknown drop in global temperatures? I think my answer would have to be NO. Joe Bastardi believes it will take "a while" for residual heat acquired by the oceans over 40 years of an energetic sun to "bleed off", but I don't think we have quantified "a while". Past measures for the Atlantic suggest upwards of a decade, but our sample size is small (two) and quantification may not be the best. The Pause may represent the balance point preceding the beginning of that "bleed off". Joe seems to believe we will set another slightly higher plateau, but there are signs that the shallower downward slope following the 2015 peak may accelerate. Here we may only be talking about "when and how much". Even IPCCers probably understand that, no matter how much insulation you have, if ya turn the furnace down in the cold of space, the house may get colder. But I think we should avoid becoming the antithesis of the warm extremists. I agree. More than anything we don't know what the heck is going on. The recent paper on deep ocean cooling that Judith Curry said was really important shows the Pacific Ocean still cooling from the MWP all the while the Atlantic is still warming from the LIA, except supposedly the North Atlantic which may be initiating another major phase or be simply part of some ocean variation that we have seen occur over the past century and a half. In my view Dr Syun Akasofu has the best take on the situation. He became skeptically involved when claims were being made about CO2 warming overwhelming all other climate variation and the hockey stick. He did a paper on global climate variation using various proxies like date of lakes and rivers freezing and thawing and maintained we can't know about anthropogenic warming without knowing about natural warming. The one thing that has been happening with a lot of regularity that should repeat itself sometime before 2025 is where the global climate committee readjusts the temperature records of the past after having discovered more errors in it. The ocean holds its mysteries and we know less about it than we know about the surface of Mars. Many years ago a fishery department employee scientist told me the absence of a historical large bluefin tuna off the west coast was because the water was relatively cold. This big tuna fishery is what legends are made of with stories by Zane Grey and Ernest Hemingway touching on it. The original records are held by the Avalon Tuna Club that has its old museum on Catalina Island off the coast of southern California that dates back to the days that Avalon was a town built entirely for the purpose of pursuing the first big game recreational fishery in America. Pursuit of these blue giants which could be caught from row boats launched from Avalon got its start in the late 1880's and was pretty much over by the late 1890's. Then in the 1930's they appeared again and disappeared again by WWII. They were absent again . . . .until. . . .start up the music. . . .last year. OK my proxy says its been warming. . . .like it has done before and again before that. The tuna are like my wife, never warm enough, so lets go to Hawaii.
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 21, 2019 18:49:34 GMT
OK my proxy says its been warming. . . .like it has done before and again before that. The tuna are like my wife, never warm enough, so lets go to Hawaii.
Marta agrees. She's looking at air fares. And I note that your west coast warm proxies are coincident with Mid-West and East coast cold proxies.
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Post by acidohm on Jan 21, 2019 21:36:24 GMT
The "Maunder Minimum soon" predictions have some logic behind them but still haven't found much support in the solar science community. Since Cycle 24 has proven nearly all theories for predicting solar activity to be wrong, I thought we might see some new thinking and perhaps more support for a near-term "dimming" of the sun. The fact that some scientists on the margin of solar science are confident enough to make specific predictions for Cycle 25 and 26, ie, Cycle 25 half as active as Cycle 24 and close to zero activity in Cycle 26, the odds of something happening seem to be a little higher. But even after the new studies and in spite of the very cold and snowy weather in the northern US this week, I'm still not quite ready to put it in my long-term global temperature prediction. Is anyone here convinced there's a Maunder Minimum just ahead? I think Joe B has it, too much energy stored in oceans, and it aint gunna dissipate that quick....
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Post by nautonnier on Jan 22, 2019 0:51:16 GMT
The "Maunder Minimum soon" predictions have some logic behind them but still haven't found much support in the solar science community. Since Cycle 24 has proven nearly all theories for predicting solar activity to be wrong, I thought we might see some new thinking and perhaps more support for a near-term "dimming" of the sun. The fact that some scientists on the margin of solar science are confident enough to make specific predictions for Cycle 25 and 26, ie, Cycle 25 half as active as Cycle 24 and close to zero activity in Cycle 26, the odds of something happening seem to be a little higher. But even after the new studies and in spite of the very cold and snowy weather in the northern US this week, I'm still not quite ready to put it in my long-term global temperature prediction. Is anyone here convinced there's a Maunder Minimum just ahead? I think Joe B has it, too much energy stored in oceans, and it aint gunna dissipate that quick.... Well it may not dissipate for centuries if it is being dragged around in the THC as claimed. At the same time it is amazing how fast the top few hundred meters of the oceans can cool. Look at them now and compare them with a year ago. The hydrologic cycle is very powerful cooling process and when it activates it also increases cloud aka albedo closing the 'iris' so that less heat gets in.
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 22, 2019 1:17:03 GMT
I think Joe B has it, too much energy stored in oceans, and it aint gunna dissipate that quick.... Well it may not dissipate for centuries if it is being dragged around in the THC as claimed. At the same time it is amazing how fast the top few hundred meters of the oceans can cool. Look at them now and compare them with a year ago. The hydrologic cycle is very powerful cooling process and when it activates it also increases cloud aka albedo closing the 'iris' so that less heat gets in. This brings to mind memories of the coldest I've ever been in my life. No, it was not Alaska. It was standing on the deck of a moving dive boat in the tropics wearing a dripping wet thin lycra dive skin. Thought I was gonna freeze to death. Such is the power of evaporative cooling.
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Post by nautonnier on Jan 22, 2019 2:33:39 GMT
The other Corbyn is the Labour party leader
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 22, 2019 4:45:07 GMT
The other Corbyn is the Labour party leader I do enjoy listening to Piers, but he really could use a few higher tech props. The inflatable earth and twine must have been a short notice fallback.
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Post by nautonnier on Jan 22, 2019 11:19:53 GMT
The other Corbyn is the Labour party leader I do enjoy listening to Piers, but he really could use a few higher tech props. The inflatable earth and twine must have been a short notice fallback. As he is short of funds, I think you will find it's not twine - it's a shoestring he's doing it on ;-)
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Post by acidohm on Jan 22, 2019 17:46:05 GMT
The other Corbyn is the Labour party leader And a massive idiot to boot!! (Seeing as its politics im assuming insults are ok??)
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Post by blustnmtn on Jan 22, 2019 18:06:33 GMT
The other Corbyn is the Labour party leader And a massive idiot to boot!! (Seeing as its politics im assuming insults are ok??) In the states the opposition would refer to him as "My good friend and massive idiot to boot"!
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