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Post by karlox on Sept 11, 2013 8:48:13 GMT
Astromet, could you do a little forecast for Iberian Peninsula (Portugal and Spain) for this coming winter? (further: could it be snowy in Madrid this winter? ) Thanks in advance! As for how inaccurate even short-term predictions by Met Offices might be: -We are having currently a very stormy weather in Madrid, with some showers in the past hour and right now and temps around 14ºC Then look through link below a 7 days forecast for Madrid gave 0% of prob for rainfall, and Lowest temp 16ºC (now -2ºC below that in fact!) -So they have a hard time even for the first day of the forecast... 7 day forecast for Madrid starting Sept 11th
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Post by AstroMet on Sept 11, 2013 8:50:35 GMT
As we get closer and closer to the official start of the global cooling I've been forecasting to come, officially starting in December 2017, and being felt now as we transition out of solar-forced global warming to solar-forced global cooling, we will see more and more ideologues have to eat plenty of crow using the ridiculous term 'climate deniers' when it comes to the impossibility of 'man-made global warming.' However, for years now, I have been adding these people to a database so we will all know who were the ones telling the world that global warming was here to stay, for over a 100 years, and that mankind was the cause of global warming - which is total bunk of course. This particular Winter of 2014 will give the northern hemisphere a taste of the kind of winters that will become more common, as we enter into this anomalous winter season, with heavier-than-normal snowfalls, and then brutal arctic temperatures to follow. We've got quite a winter season on the way. That's what I am forecasting. At this time, global cooling is now becoming all the rage and of course, the climate ideologues are trying to 'deny' that, as with this piece from Slate. com about the fact that the Arctic Ice Cap has grown 60% in 12 months is ruffling feathers (especially at the IPCC.) See how the Arctic Ice Cap growth, and the coming of global cooling is being 'handled' by those who clearly do not have both oars in the water. See -> www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2013/09/10/climate_change_sea_ice_global_cooling_and_other_nonsense.html
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Post by stanb999 on Sept 11, 2013 15:07:35 GMT
Astromet, What is the "average" temperature fall your expecting?
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Post by AstroMet on Sept 11, 2013 21:35:57 GMT
Theo, a link you might find interesting: cliffmass.blogspot.com/2013/09/mega-bird-migration.html These are radar images from the very new Langley Hill Doppler radar station on the Washington coast and they picked up a massive bird migration heading South. I've heard birds fly South for the winter and it looks like a lot of birds are flying South this winter Thanks Codewhacker, We should see a very strong winter just ahead. Many of the astronomic signals I've calculated show the heavy, wet snow, along with a strong wind, then arctic temperatures to follow. A powerful winter season on the way.
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Post by flearider on Sept 11, 2013 21:40:02 GMT
astro .. do you believe mini or maybe full on with the huge increase in the Antarctic .. we already have movement of the upwelling near SA and Africa..and with a lower level of sun output .. i'm thinking a 2-4 deg drop ...over the first half ..
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Post by AstroMet on Sept 11, 2013 22:17:46 GMT
astro .. do you believe mini or maybe full on with the huge increase in the Antarctic .. we already have movement of the upwelling near SA and Africa..and with a lower level of sun output .. i'm thinking a 2-4 deg drop ...over the first half .. That's about right Flearider, Normal solar cycles are about 11 years, but our current solar cycle 24 is is unusually long. If you look at U.S. historical data, what it looks like to me is about a 2.1°C decline over the length of Solar Cycle 24. That will then be followed by another 2.9°C decline with Solar Cycle 25 - a solar minimum, that causes a neo-boreal event for the Earth, a mini ice age. So what it adds up to is a whopping 4.9°C to 5°C decline in temperate latitudes over the next 20 years. That's what Global Cooling brings to the party. Serious business for everyone. Global warming has always been good for the Earth, but global cooling is not. More climate scientists have been heeding my long-range climate forecast warnings over the years about the coming of global cooling and so you will have been seeing them talk and write a lot more about global cooling, after all the undue focus on global warming for over two decades. Finally, more are listening and taking serious attention to this because global cooling is no joke and the waste of time on 'man-made global warming' has taken billions of dollars, attention spans, resources and brain-power away from global cooling which is a real danger to the world. I continue to state that 'man-made global warming' has always been a lie because it is impossible to ever happen on the Earth and violates all the laws of physics that govern the Earth's climate. Many more people are now doubting AGW and for good reasons, after all the lies, ideology, careerism, head games and BS played within climate science, the media and Pro-AGW blogs. All of those people who played those games will have to eat serious crow soon enough and they will deserve it too. And by the time global cooling officially begins by mid-December 2017, and as we go into the decade of the Twenty-Twenties, many more people will certainly know and feel that global cooling is here to stay. The new global cooling regime will last approximately 36 years, according to my calculations. That has been my climate forecast for years and nothing has changed. I've been warning everyone with my public climate forecasts, so you can't blame me when it all goes down and global cooling is coming people. You can bank on it. Get yourselves ready. I am also expecting a kind of proton event on the Sun will help to usher in global cooling. For instance, a paper found that a solar proton event could cause global cooling of more than 3°C. The study found that ‘a solar proton event, if it took place in the near future with an intensity similar to that ascribed to the Carrington Event of 1859, must be expected to have a major impact on atmospheric composition throughout the middle atmosphere, resulting in significant and persistent decrease in total ozone,’ resulting in a ‘significant global cooling of more than 3°C. You can read it here -> www.atmos-chem-phys.net/12/8679/2012/acp-12-8679-2012.pdf
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Post by glennkoks on Sept 11, 2013 23:19:54 GMT
Can I say: 'I told you so?'
In short no.
Lets review: This is what you said:
"Here's my climate/weather advice for farmers.
It can be applied generally for those in the Corn Belt, based on my Astromet calculations for general climate conditions of 2013-2016.
There's another bone dry year with little rain, short water supplies, heat waves, blistering temperatures and spread of the drought this year."
And then there is this quote:
"One of the big reasons I say that corn prices in 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016 will continue to rise is that I know that droughts are forced astronomically. They run in cycles and seldom break over just one year."
And here are the facts:
Corn futures’ year-to-date losses balloon to 30% July 29, 2013, 4:44 PM Grain futures have taken a big hit with the market encouraged by “near perfect weather,” driving prices for corn down by more than 30% year to date.
“We entered key yield development time” for corn pollination, said Tim Hannagan, grain analyst at Walsh Trading. “Weather was near perfect with timely rain and no excess heat.”
Now I'm certain you can find something to say about my grammar, spelling or run on sentences but there will always be droughts and fires somewhere so the keywords I took from your forecast were:
"Corn Belt"
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Post by glennkoks on Sept 11, 2013 23:22:13 GMT
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ray
New Member
Posts: 35
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Post by ray on Sept 12, 2013 2:18:08 GMT
Nice piece Theo. When you get a chance can you tell me how Europe might fare through all of this? I know Northern Europe might get hit hard(think Ireland's potato famine during the Little Ice Age) but what about the Southern Mediterranean countries like Italy? My guess is that crop production might be better further south.
Thanks, Ray
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Post by glennkoks on Sept 12, 2013 3:12:09 GMT
Glen, Are you speaking of corn prices or corn futures? This pretty much sums up corn since Mr. Astromet put out his summer forecast. Attachments:
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Post by glennkoks on Sept 12, 2013 3:23:52 GMT
And this is from the USDA
U.S. corn growers are expected to produce a record-high 13.8 billion bushels of corn in 2013, according to the Crop Production report issued in mid-August by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). The forecast production is up 28 percent from drought-hit 2012. The early planting season was not very favorable for corn growers this year, as they were hampered by abnormally wet and cold spring weather. By April 28, only 5 percent of corn had been planted. In mid-May, however, the weather became more favorable, allowing producers to speed up their planting pace and tie the previous single-week planting record by getting 43 percent of the total crop in the ground during the week ending on May 19. U.S. growers wrapped up planting corn by mid-June, with 97.4 million acres planted to the crop. Also, with 64 percent of U.S. corn crop rated in good to excellent condition as of August 4, corn crop condition remains significantly higher than at this time last year. Based on these conditions, NASS forecasts this year’s corn yield at 154.4 bushels per acre, the third-highest yield on record.
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Post by AstroMet on Sept 12, 2013 6:29:51 GMT
Can I say: 'I told you so?' In short no. Lets review: This is what you said: "Here's my climate/weather advice for farmers. It can be applied generally for those in the Corn Belt, based on my Astromet calculations for general climate conditions of 2013-2016. There's another bone dry year with little rain, short water supplies, heat waves, blistering temperatures and spread of the drought this year." And then there is this quote: "One of the big reasons I say that corn prices in 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016 will continue to rise is that I know that droughts are forced astronomically. They run in cycles and seldom break over just one year." And here are the facts: Corn futures’ year-to-date losses balloon to 30% July 29, 2013, 4:44 PM Grain futures have taken a big hit with the market encouraged by “near perfect weather,” driving prices for corn down by more than 30% year to date. “We entered key yield development time” for corn pollination, said Tim Hannagan, grain analyst at Walsh Trading. “Weather was near perfect with timely rain and no excess heat.” Now I'm certain you can find something to say about my grammar, spelling or run on sentences but there will always be droughts and fires somewhere so the keywords I took from your forecast were: "Corn Belt" As usual Glenn, your IQ still has not risen, and you continue to not know what you are talking about. You need to learn to actually think before making a fool out of yourself. You're talking about CORN FUTURES and you don't seem to be able to think for yourself, and moreover, are reactionary, when you should be thinking about what is really happening: Sept. 9, 2013 -- Reuters:(Reuters) - The Chicago Board of Trade's December 2015 corn futures contract gyrated wildly on Monday night, experiencing a 22-1/2-cent price swing in the first hour of the overnight session due to what traders said appeared to be an erroneous order entry.
The activity highlights the volatility of the all-electronic overnight session, when volume is typically thin and so-called fat finger trades can quickly send prices out of line.
"If that order was in the pit, it would have never happened," said Tom Grisafi, president of agricultural advisory service Trade the Farm LLC. A floor broker would have double checked to make sure someone wanted to make a deal that was 10 cents below the market before executing it, he said.
The CME Group, parent of CBOT, was unavailable for comment.
The December 2015 corn contract opened overnight at $4.98-1/2 a bushel and then quickly dropped to session low of $4.87-1/2 within 3 minutes. The market rebounded minutes later, topping out at $5.10.
The trader likely unwound the mistake made at the open, Grisafi said.
December 2013 corn, which is currently the Chicago Board of Trade's most actively traded corn futures contract, traded in just a 2-cent range during the same time frame.
Volume for December 2015 futures during the first hour of trading was 832 contracts, making it the busiest hour for the contract on record. The next most active hour was between 1 p.m. and 2 p.m. on August 14, when 177 contracts changed hands."There's a saying about being patient and observing what is actually happening, rather than what you see. You're talking about corn futures, and for some strange reason, you are in total denial about the Drought, which is ongoing and affects food production in this country. You also continue with the BS on 'man-made global warming' which DOES NOT EXIST. Why you continue to exercise your ignorance for all to see in public is beyond me, but I don't care. And since you want to be such a smart-ass, as this post is about GLOBAL COOLING, I will also now correct you on what is actually happening in the real world regarding the Corn Belt and the impact on food worldwide. You really need to wise up kiddo, as Corn prices actually fell on USDA’s estimates: "On August 28, corn prices stood at $5.04 per bushel, based on data provided by CBOT (Chicago’s Board of Trade)—the world’s oldest futures and options trading house. Corn prices crashed in mid-July, as the USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) kept this year’s corn production outlook and global stock-to-use ratio estimates relatively unchanged due to recent favorable weather. "Lately, however, hotter and drier weather in the Midwest has stoked concerns that yield will be lower than what was previously expected, which had sent corn prices up from the low of $4.55 per bushel in August 15."Now, here are REAL FACTS on the Corn Belt, and the next time you want to make a point, do it with some real facts rather than BS, which is a waste of time and get off my thread with your stupidity while you are at it: A lot of the price rises and falls have been put down to speculation. You also have that Sept. 9 event as reported by Reuters, which of course, you were ignorant of before your smart-ass comments. Wise up kiddo. NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The drought that's drying up the Heartland isn't just an American problem. It's causing food prices to surge worldwide. "This is not some gentle monthly wake-up call, it's the same global alarm that's been screaming at us since 2008," said Colin Roche of Oxfam, noting that the drought could lead to food shortages for millions of people worldwide. Food is a major U.S. export, so the drought affects prices around the globe. "World leaders must snap out of their lazy complacency and realize the time of cheap food has long gone," Roche said. Food prices jumped 6%, after three months of declines, according to the United Nations' monthly Food Price Index released Thursday. The main drivers behind the increase? Grain prices. And more specifically, corn prices, which have hit record highs in recent weeks. According to the U.N. report, global corn prices surged nearly 23% in July, exacerbated by "the severe deterioration of maize crop prospects in the United States, following drought conditions and excessive heat during critical stages of the crop development." "It's going to have a big impact [on consumers]," said Sam Zippin, an analyst at financial information firm Sageworks. "Corn is in almost everything." Read on -> money.cnn.com/2012/08/09/news/economy/food-prices-index/index.htmAlso -> Food prices on the rise as drought worsens -> money.cnn.com/2012/07/25/investing/corn-food-prices/index.htm?iid=ELPlus, -> Corn Prices Rise further because of late dry weather -> finance.yahoo.com/news/corn-prices-rise-further-because-185506699.htmlAnd -> Bloomberg: "Soybeans rose as persistent hot, dry weather threatens crops in the U.S., the world’s largest producer. Corn and wheat were little changed. Temperatures will near 100 degrees Fahrenheit (38 degrees Celsius) in parts of the Midwest today and tomorrow, National Weather Service data show. Crop stress has been greatest in parts of Iowa into western Illinois, the largest corn and soybean producing states, according to World Weather Inc. The oilseed jumped 14 percent this month through yesterday, while prices for the grain rose 0.4 percent. See -> www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-29/soybeans-set-for-biggest-monthly-gain-since-july-2012-on-yields.htmlNow, learn a lesson here about the markets, corn, and especially the Drought that I forecasted and said would continue into this year, as well as the impact on farmers and prices: In late 2012, corn prices were actually near record highs, above $7 per bushel. And, according to the mainstream experts, bullish news was set to continue to support the upside, including: 1. The worst drought to strike the Unites States since 1988, devastating crops (which would eventually increase prices for corn) 2. An increase in demand for cheaper alternative fuel sources, such as corn-based ethanol 3. An increase in demand from China, one of the world's largest corn importers 4. On the supply side, a 30-year low in corn export sales from the United States Back in late November 2012, it was reported that, "Traders Stalk a Rally for US Corn. US prices have fallen and supplies of corn elsewhere are drying up, prompting traders to bet US corn will soon be in demand once again. is betting corn will rise above $8 a bushel early next year."
So, on the basis of that cue, many corn growers greased their wheels. They planted more to take advantage of the widely expected rise in prices. But instead, corn prices turned down. In 2013 alone, they have wilted 30% to a 33-month low. This is a combination of the continuation of the drought, which I forecasted, along with the cold, wet spring that delayed the planting season. A news source described the fallout: "Farmers who've sunk more money into land and equipment during boom times -- thus increasing their costs -- are looking at thinning margins." – [Minneapolis Star Tribune, August 5] The lesson here cannot be clearer:
Outside factors do not drive long-term trend changes in financial markets. The collective psychology of a market's participants, which unfolds in clear and observable Elliott wave patterns on price charts, do.
As long as the late November high of 767-1/2 remains intact, the patterns in this market are bearish. Specifically, odds strongly favor a 20% drop in prices from current levels as we move into just the first quarter of 2013. From there, corn prices recommitted to the downside, falling 20% and then some before catching their breath in mid August 2013 near the $4.50 level. After a brief rebound, corn again reversed course on August 26, 2013.
Expectations of a bumper global corn crop have sent corn futures trading in Chicago down to near three-year lows.
The weather in major producers Brazil and Ukraine has been favourable for growing and the falls have been compounded by hedge funds taking up short positions in the commodity.
However, futures rebounded just last week as the market fretted about inclement weather in America. A US Department of Agriculture (USDA) report released last Monday showed that corn and soybean crops were maturing more slowly than normal.
This followed late planting of crops because of rain and below average temperatures.
So while lower crop conditions have been pushing corn prices higher lately, corn prices are not likely to end above $6.00 per bushel this year. This is because summer's hot weather is now mostly behind us, and crop conditions are unlikely to suffer much. So corn prices are unlikely to rise much further from here.
And that is just this year of 2013. My forecast goes out further than that, so while you are anxious to pee all over my long-range forecasts Glenn, I suggest you hold your urine for a better opportunity - which you will not get.
TRANSLATION: piss in your own pot Glenn - and not mine. Thank you very much.
Have a nice day.
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Post by AstroMet on Sept 12, 2013 7:01:02 GMT
Astromet, could you do a little forecast for Iberian Peninsula (Portugal and Spain) for this coming winter? (further: could it be snowy in Madrid this winter? ) Thanks in advance! As for how inaccurate even short-term predictions by Met Offices might be: -We are having currently a very stormy weather in Madrid, with some showers in the past hour and right now and temps around 14ºC Then look through link below a 7 days forecast for Madrid gave 0% of prob for rainfall, and Lowest temp 16ºC (now -2ºC below that in fact!) -So they have a hard time even for the first day of the forecast... 7 day forecast for Madrid starting Sept 11thHi Karlox, I would be pleased to, however, I am very busy enough as it is with forecasts stretching into next year for clients and quite busy completing them for clients. It's been a long haul this year, as the climate/weather over the next several years is concerning and quite complex. My work schedule is packed to say the least and there's only one of me. I will have a public forecast out, mostly for North America, for Winter/Spring 2014 and will post it here as well. I can say that in my calculations for this winter, that it will be snowier than normal for the northern hemisphere though.
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Post by glennkoks on Sept 12, 2013 11:14:48 GMT
Theodore,
Most of the people who read these posts can think for themselves. The "Blistering" heat and high corn prices you were forecasting for the "corn belt" simply did not happen in 2013. Your forecast was wrong. Admit it and move forward.
More to follow when I get time...
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Post by glennkoks on Sept 12, 2013 13:47:39 GMT
Theodore,
In your alternate reality what did corn prices do in in 2013? Because in both the graph I provided and the links you provided corn dropped like a rock from its peak in 2012.
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