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Post by sigurdur on Apr 28, 2014 16:13:23 GMT
Icefisher: Yes, there has been talk of diverting some of the Missouri to our western neighbors. Downstream interests holler really loud when that talk starts tho. Even digging a channel to bring Missouri River water to the Red River has huge hurdles. The McClusky canal still is hanging, 2 reasons: 1. Canada is terrified of the Missouri River Water. Whole different biota in Lake Winnipeg. 2. Downstream interests do NOT want the ability to divert water west. nd.water.usgs.gov/photos/resources/mccluskycanal.htmlI agree with you that long term, a substantial rain event in California would be good. Recharge some ground water, fill the reservoirs etc. Short term tho, it would be a climatic event that the AGW folks would whine about, gnash their teeth etc because they would forget that this stuff happens. Maybe the mud slides aren't really a big deal. Has been decades now since I have been to California. But when one happens, sure makes the news. Your comment about the age of the mountains does make sense tho. Kinda is like sea level rise. I am not worried about continued sea level rise. I would be concerned when it stops rising, as that pesky sheet of ice might be returning then.
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Post by nautonnier on Apr 28, 2014 20:02:13 GMT
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Post by douglavers on Apr 28, 2014 20:25:36 GMT
The Martians, from a safe distance and with a lack of understanding of a water world, are having a little difficulty in following this conversation. They have looked at sea surface temperatures [their telescopes and measuring devices are quite good]: weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom_new.gifThey notice there is plenty of anomalously cold water off a place called "Peru", and there is plenty of wind [and sea current] to blow this further North-West. They are a little mystified by this thing called a "Warm Kelvin Wave". Their astronomical measuring devices don't extend below the sea surface, and they don't understand how warm water can head East against the prevailing wind. They also notice there has been plenty of rain in that strange and wonderful place called "Australia". Apparently when "El Nino" happens, Australia dries up. This all seems very inconsistent to them. They observe there is plenty of extremely [anomalously] cold water in the Central Northern "Atlantic" and the "Gulf of Mexico", and wonder whether earthlings have any real understanding of what is happening.
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Post by icefisher on Apr 28, 2014 21:14:37 GMT
Icefisher: Yes, there has been talk of diverting some of the Missouri to our western neighbors. Downstream interests holler really loud when that talk starts tho. Even digging a channel to bring Missouri River water to the Red River has huge hurdles. The McClusky canal still is hanging, 2 reasons: 1. Canada is terrified of the Missouri River Water. Whole different biota in Lake Winnipeg. 2. Downstream interests do NOT want the ability to divert water east. nd.water.usgs.gov/photos/resources/mccluskycanal.htmlI agree with you that long term, a substantial rain event in California would be good. Recharge some ground water, fill the reservoirs etc. Short term tho, it would be a climatic event that the AGW folks would whine about, gnash their teeth etc because they would forget that this stuff happens. Maybe the mud slides aren't really a big deal. Has been decades now since I have been to California. But when one happens, sure makes the news. Your comment about the age of the mountains does make sense tho. Kinda is like sea level rise. I am not worried about continued sea level rise. I would be concerned when it stops rising, as that pesky sheet of ice might be returning then. there are a few areas known for housing damage due to mudslides. But what gets the most press are landslides when large slabs of earth slide carrying a lot of rock. The landslides tend to occur when a deep layer of clay becomes very wet and the entire chuck of a mountain slides. But this is generally not caused by a flood or heavy precipitation event but instead by intrusion of water into the deep layer by human discharges or exceptional wet full term seasons of rainfall that allow for saturation of the lower layers over a long period of time. And these landslides economically speaking (not considering injury or loss of life which actually is pretty small but immeasurable) is small potatoes compared to the agricultural potential of California under above average rain seasons.
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Post by icefisher on Apr 28, 2014 22:52:19 GMT
Icefisher: Yes, there has been talk of diverting some of the Missouri to our western neighbors. Downstream interests holler really loud when that talk starts tho. Even digging a channel to bring Missouri River water to the Red River has huge hurdles. The McClusky canal still is hanging, 2 reasons: 1. Canada is terrified of the Missouri River Water. Whole different biota in Lake Winnipeg. 2. Downstream interests do NOT want the ability to divert water east. nd.water.usgs.gov/photos/resources/mccluskycanal.htmlYep! Whiskey is for drinking and water is for fighting over.
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Post by sigurdur on Apr 28, 2014 23:06:57 GMT
Icefisher........no no no.. You can drink my whiskey, indulge my wife. But DON'T you dare screw with my water.
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Post by sigurdur on Apr 28, 2014 23:08:08 GMT
Those pesky easterlies just don't seem to want to quit do they?
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Post by sigurdur on Apr 28, 2014 23:11:44 GMT
The Martians, from a safe distance and with a lack of understanding of a water world, are having a little difficulty in following this conversation. They have looked at sea surface temperatures [their telescopes and measuring devices are quite good]: weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom_new.gifThey notice there is plenty of anomalously cold water off a place called "Peru", and there is plenty of wind [and sea current] to blow this further North-West. They are a little mystified by this thing called a "Warm Kelvin Wave". Their astronomical measuring devices don't extend below the sea surface, and they don't understand how warm water can head East against the prevailing wind. They also notice there has been plenty of rain in that strange and wonderful place called "Australia". Apparently when "El Nino" happens, Australia dries up. This all seems very inconsistent to them. They observe there is plenty of extremely [anomalously] cold water in the Central Northern "Atlantic" and the "Gulf of Mexico", and wonder whether earthlings have any real understanding of what is happening. Back to the real question, when the timing seems so far off, can the "Hot" Pacific overcome the timing issue?
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Post by sigurdur on Apr 30, 2014 13:18:11 GMT
Looks like the upwelling along the coast is now positive, so the beginnings of an actual El Nino appear to be happening.
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Post by duwayne on May 1, 2014 13:38:10 GMT
Looks like the upwelling along the coast is now positive, so the beginnings of an actual El Nino appear to be happening. Sigurdur, what do you mean by "positive" upwelling?
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Post by sigurdur on May 1, 2014 14:44:52 GMT
Looks like the upwelling along the coast is now positive, so the beginnings of an actual El Nino appear to be happening. Sigurdur, what do you mean by "positive" upwelling? I still haven't taken the time to figure out how to post pictures. weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_daily.php?plot=ssa&inv=0&t=curNotice on the link to Sea Surface Temps that the temperature off Peru is now a positive anomaly. This had been negative for years. The leading edge of the Kelvin wave is now in that area, and the sea surface temps reflect this. There is a normal ocean upwelling event along this coast. The SST shows that the water feeding the upwelling is now warm enough to present a normal El Nino event. However, the timing is still screwed up, so that upwelling will have to stick around for months.
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Post by sigurdur on May 1, 2014 14:49:14 GMT
The SOI index continues its positive trend, which is also not conducive to an El Nino. Australia is getting rain, event tho the Southern Plains of the USA remains dry, the wheat market is responding negatively on ideas of increased production.
Normally, in the early stage of an El Nino, Australia wheat production areas are parched.
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Post by sigurdur on May 1, 2014 14:54:50 GMT
Another item worth noting, is it almost looks like the equator has moved north via the wind maps. Don't know if this is a normal thing during the early stages of an El Nino or not, but thought it worth mentioning as an item of discussion.
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Post by icefisher on May 1, 2014 20:18:14 GMT
Looks like the upwelling along the coast is now positive, so the beginnings of an actual El Nino appear to be happening. Sigurdur, what do you mean by "positive" upwelling? As we discussed here earlier, upwelling brings deeper water to the surface which is almost always colder than the surface water. So technically, a positive anomaly is basically no upwelling or weaker upwelling that is bringing less water (almost always cooler) to the surface. When you look at the subsurface analysis along the Peruvian coast you see an "column" of warm water forming. But what this is is again simply less upwelling, allowing the upper waters to warm more by the sun or by mixing with water from the west. The typical scenario is for a positive temperature gradient existing as you move from the Peruvian coast towards the western Pacific. Below you can see the usual temperature gradient of Sea Surface Temperatures as you move east to west. Here you can see a more recent one where the gradient is changing but overall there is still a strong warming as you move west. Here is one from the 2002 La Nina Here is one from the beginnings of the 2010 El Nino
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Post by sigurdur on May 1, 2014 23:37:59 GMT
Great job of explaining Icefisher!!
Thanks.
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