ant42
Level 3 Rank
Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 129
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Post by ant42 on Jul 29, 2014 6:33:40 GMT
Sigurdur, i closed the site down.
As a business owner i no longer have the time to do forecasting for each city.
So i will put my FB page up of my family business instead.
POAMA is probably the most accurate of the ENSO models.
Useless for everything else, but with ENSO its very good.
And thats because it was only developed in 2010, with the obvious effects of the Cold PDO put into the script.
Thats where all the other models fail, they don't realise the coupling doesn't occur during the cold PDO, and if it does its weak.
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Post by Ufasuperstorm on Jul 31, 2014 18:02:54 GMT
Upper Ocean Heat Anomalies in the Nino regions continue to take a dive. As a result the surface has continued to cool. NOAA has their next monthly update on August 7th. I believe they will start to back off. So much for the second super kelvin wave.
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 31, 2014 18:05:31 GMT
I had really wanted an El Nino, but so much for want verses reality.
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Post by Ufasuperstorm on Aug 4, 2014 16:03:55 GMT
The weekly update shows more cooling. Here is the change in sea surface temperatures from last weeks update: Nino 1-2: -1.0 C (That is no typo) Nino 3.0: -.3 C Nino 3.4: 0 C Nino 4: +.1 C Upper Ocean Heat Anomalies in the Nino regions continue to take a dive. The monthly update is this Thursday and I expect NOAA will start backing off their El Nino idea.
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 4, 2014 17:05:30 GMT
That's put all the models into a hole that has.
I wonder what all the pundits will do that were talking up the 'Super El Nino' or science (cough) magazines like New Scientist that ran articles on the huge impact the 'super El Nino' would have on the weather, not to mention the warmists with champagne on ice waiting to celebrate. Will these people just walk away whistling and hope nobody remembers their excitable outpourings this spring?
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Post by AstroMet on Aug 4, 2014 18:46:52 GMT
You should all read Theo's tour de force on WattsUpWithThat on forecasting ENSO rather than being attacked (apart from the usual empty head attempts at poor humor) it got supported. Nice one Theo! Thanks Nautonnier, We can see how NOAA and the other major climate centers went on this spring about the 'super El Nino' that never was, and even now, in early August, many continue to refuse to admit that they were completely wrong about their forecast on the ENSO cycle. This has been the kind of dreamworld that they've been living in for far too long with 'man-made global warming' and their refusal to admit that they cannot forecast - which is the entire point of Science.
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Post by Ufasuperstorm on Aug 7, 2014 13:22:05 GMT
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Post by icefisher on Aug 7, 2014 13:50:36 GMT
A record shattering hiatus of El Nino is all but a fact. With 3 weeks to go in the season the chances of JJA being above the El Nino threshold is essentially nil. Not scoring El Nino conditions for the JJA season extends the El Nino hiatus to an "unprecedented" world record length break! My gawd folks we are going to freeze to death!!!! Manmade cooling is going to kill us all!!!
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Post by sigurdur on Aug 7, 2014 14:15:49 GMT
Rocket science and climate science do not share the same metrics.
NASA should stick to rocket science.
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Post by icefisher on Aug 7, 2014 17:39:23 GMT
Rocket science and climate science do not share the same metrics. NASA should stick to rocket science. In rocket science they did not use academia! Instead they went to Boeing, McDonnell Douglas, etc. The old saying is if you can't do it. . . .teach! If you really want to figure out how the climate works take the current money dedicated to it and set up like a moon project or a project for some super aircraft where by you have competing firms test fly some models and the models that get the best results get an order. Presently the standard for getting a contract, starting with Al Gore's Senate Presidency, was determined by if the projections of the model agreed with Al's projection. That naturally led to the claim of a consensus of all models. And that today still is how models are defended, not by a demonstration of skill for which you only need one model; but instead by all models agreeing with with zero demonstration of skill. Of course Al Gore's excuse for this fraud is there wasn't enough time to do it right!
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Post by graywolf on Aug 11, 2014 15:52:51 GMT
If you look at the new research on the enhancement of the trades; www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2330.htmlwith a synopsis here; phys.org/news/2014-08-atlantic-turbocharges-pacific.htmlyou'll see just why we have had a plethora of 'bust' forecasts over the late noughties early teens and also why the 2010 event was so stunted ( but worryingly it still was able to break the 98' super nino global temp record? ). As soon as the event is ongoing, and the KW spreads east, the trades reassert their dominance and we see the KW dissipate and even swing ino Nina territory as the descending Walker Cell overturns the ocean again leading to the upwelling of the colder waters. At some point ( soon?) the tropical Atlantic and Pacific will reach parity and the walker Cell will again slacken back to its historic values. This will lead to a slackening of the trades. As we know ( and measure) the Trades have pushed an anomalous warm pool over the western Pacific, as the extra sea level there shows, and built up a very deep warm pool ( as the strength of the spring KW showed) so any lessening of the trades will not be strong enough to hold this warm pool back any longer. Even with 'normal trades' blowing these waters will head back east ( lessening the temp imbalance between Atlantic and Pacific) and so reduce the Walker cell strength further. Reduction of the trades , apart from allowing a Nino to form and maintain, will also reduce the amount of heat currently being buried in the Pacific ( IPO-ve) and allow surface warming to predominate ( IPO+ve) .The switch to IPO positive will further reinforce the current PDO+ve which in it's turn will increase the likelihood of future Nino events? My personal view is , as ever, a tad 'Lovelokian' with me viewing the whole planet as a system seeking balance ( Mother Nature if you will). If we set up a forcing in one direction Mother N. will do Her best to keep things in the current form of 'stable'. Should that forcing continue then there will come a point where this is no longer viable and She will step the system up to the next stable state. As it is the response of the walker Cell has lead , in the greater part, to the atmospheric temp 'hiatus' by producing enhanced Trades which has served to bury the heat and bring up cooler waters. This is not Her 'permanent Fix' and , with the oceans approaching Parity, it appears that She is making herself ready for a '~Flip' to the next stable climate position. If you recall in the early noughties the MetO put out a statement concerning its model output. They advised that the runs were showing a likelihood of near static (atmospheric) global temps for a period but that these would again begin to rise, at a rate similar, or higher, to that which we witnessed in the 80's and 90's at some time in the middle of the next decade ( now). So we wait for a Nino that can overpower the Trades or a relaxation of the walkers Cell's enhanced working. Unlike previous 'bust' Nino's I think that the current developing KW will help the Nino limp on through winter? Should this happen we may see a 'double Whammy' Nino where another KW , like this spring's, pushes out over the existing threshold temps further enhancing any weak/moderate Nino into next summer? This may well prove to be enough to bring both tropical basin into parity and allow the rest of that 'warm bulge' to flow back into the basin as the trades reduce as the walker cells activity calms. It will lead to the IPO flipping positive and entrench the PDO+ve that we currently see. We all knew that the naturals were in their negative states and that this would tend to flatten global atmospheric temps. If so then we all knew that if the flipped positive they would augment atmospheric warming. What we didn't know was that we would see the Walker Cell driving record Trade winds the past 20 years and the added boost to the 'cooling' that these provide ( also aiding Antarctic sea ice in it's 'recovery' of the Extent lost between the 50's and 80's?). I suppose to many posting in here they will need to wait until we see the Trades fall back to normal values before they will credit the observations being made?
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Post by icefisher on Aug 11, 2014 18:50:39 GMT
If you look at the new research on the enhancement of the trades; www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2330.html[/quote] Typical Nature Magazine yellow journalism science Graywolf. With glossy pictures makes for good coffee table placement and can be recycled as guest bathroom paper backup. Simply another round of excuses for the failure of climate models, excuses that desperately need any kind of validation which has been entirely missing from any and all consensus climate science to date. My personal view is , as ever, a tad 'Lovelokian' with me viewing the whole planet as ahe system seeking balance ( Mother Nature if you will). If we set up a forcing in one direction Mother N. will do Her best to keep things in the current form of 'stable'. Should that forcing continue then there will come a point where this is no longer viable and She will step the system up to the next stable state. You mean like a spring with a trigger? Hmmmm, interesting concept but seems unlikely. I hope you are aware that in previous periods such as during the eruption of Mt Pinatubo such a recovery had a clear cause. Most likely natural forcing combined with slow mixing of ocean created a warming force while the eruption of Mt Pinatubo temporarily overrid the forcing. We can also see the forcing effect of solar cycles in its effect on warming trends. The presumption is if you were to see longer solar cycles say in the range of 30 years you would see warming trend rates not just approach zero at solar minimum but cross over into a cooling trend. If you recall in the early noughties the MetO put out a statement concerning its model output. They advised that the runs were showing a likelihood of near static (atmospheric) global temps for a period but that these would again begin to rise, at a rate similar, or higher, to that which we witnessed in the 80's and 90's at some time in the middle of the next decade ( now). So we wait for a Nino that can overpower the Trades or a relaxation of the walkers Cell's enhanced working. Unlike previous 'bust' Nino's I think that the current developing KW will help the Nino limp on through winter? Should this happen we may see a 'double Whammy' Nino where another KW , like this spring's, pushes out over the existing threshold temps further enhancing any weak/moderate Nino into next summer? This may well prove to be enough to bring both tropical basin into parity and allow the rest of that 'warm bulge' to flow back into the basin as the trades reduce as the walker cells activity calms. It will lead to the IPO flipping positive and entrench the PDO+ve that we currently see. The Met was several years late in posting a model that showed a period of relatively little or no warming, since the flat period effectively started well before the Met recognized it. So that little trifle was in effect what the current little trifle is, namely late and a dollar short. We all knew that the naturals were in their negative states and that this would tend to flatten global atmospheric temps. Hmmm, Al Gore claimed there were no naturals. Are you now willing to admit he is a kook? If so then we all knew that if the flipped positive they would augment atmospheric warming. What we didn't know was that we would see the Walker Cell driving record Trade winds the past 20 years and the added boost to the 'cooling' that these provide ( also aiding Antarctic sea ice in it's 'recovery' of the Extent lost between the 50's and 80's?). Yep, natural variation is a total bich. I suppose to many posting in here they will need to wait until we see the Trades fall back to normal values before they will credit the observations being made? Thats actually some of the best advice you have given here.
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Post by sigurdur on Aug 11, 2014 22:27:46 GMT
If you look at the new research on the enhancement of the trades; www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2330.htmlwith a synopsis here; phys.org/news/2014-08-atlantic-turbocharges-pacific.htmlyou'll see just why we have had a plethora of 'bust' forecasts over the late noughties early teens and also why the 2010 event was so stunted ( but worryingly it still was able to break the 98' super nino global temp record? ). As soon as the event is ongoing, and the KW spreads east, the trades reassert their dominance and we see the KW dissipate and even swing ino Nina territory as the descending Walker Cell overturns the ocean again leading to the upwelling of the colder waters. At some point ( soon?) the tropical Atlantic and Pacific will reach parity and the walker Cell will again slacken back to its historic values. This will lead to a slackening of the trades. As we know ( and measure) the Trades have pushed an anomalous warm pool over the western Pacific, as the extra sea level there shows, and built up a very deep warm pool ( as the strength of the spring KW showed) so any lessening of the trades will not be strong enough to hold this warm pool back any longer. Even with 'normal trades' blowing these waters will head back east ( lessening the temp imbalance between Atlantic and Pacific) and so reduce the Walker cell strength further. Reduction of the trades , apart from allowing a Nino to form and maintain, will also reduce the amount of heat currently being buried in the Pacific ( IPO-ve) and allow surface warming to predominate ( IPO+ve) .The switch to IPO positive will further reinforce the current PDO+ve which in it's turn will increase the likelihood of future Nino events? My personal view is , as ever, a tad 'Lovelokian' with me viewing the whole planet as a system seeking balance ( Mother Nature if you will). If we set up a forcing in one direction Mother N. will do Her best to keep things in the current form of 'stable'. Should that forcing continue then there will come a point where this is no longer viable and She will step the system up to the next stable state. As it is the response of the walker Cell has lead , in the greater part, to the atmospheric temp 'hiatus' by producing enhanced Trades which has served to bury the heat and bring up cooler waters. This is not Her 'permanent Fix' and , with the oceans approaching Parity, it appears that She is making herself ready for a '~Flip' to the next stable climate position. If you recall in the early noughties the MetO put out a statement concerning its model output. They advised that the runs were showing a likelihood of near static (atmospheric) global temps for a period but that these would again begin to rise, at a rate similar, or higher, to that which we witnessed in the 80's and 90's at some time in the middle of the next decade ( now). So we wait for a Nino that can overpower the Trades or a relaxation of the walkers Cell's enhanced working. Unlike previous 'bust' Nino's I think that the current developing KW will help the Nino limp on through winter? Should this happen we may see a 'double Whammy' Nino where another KW , like this spring's, pushes out over the existing threshold temps further enhancing any weak/moderate Nino into next summer? This may well prove to be enough to bring both tropical basin into parity and allow the rest of that 'warm bulge' to flow back into the basin as the trades reduce as the walker cells activity calms. It will lead to the IPO flipping positive and entrench the PDO+ve that we currently see. We all knew that the naturals were in their negative states and that this would tend to flatten global atmospheric temps. If so then we all knew that if the flipped positive they would augment atmospheric warming. What we didn't know was that we would see the Walker Cell driving record Trade winds the past 20 years and the added boost to the 'cooling' that these provide ( also aiding Antarctic sea ice in it's 'recovery' of the Extent lost between the 50's and 80's?). I suppose to many posting in here they will need to wait until we see the Trades fall back to normal values before they will credit the observations being made? Graywolf: I do not share your certainty that the next K wave won't be eaten for breakfast by the Humboldt Current again. I also am uncertain as to what the "normal" state of the temps in the Western Pacific are. The measurements prior to 2003 were so filled with errors, that no one really knows if being warmer than the east isn't the "normal" state of the Pacific. What I find of more interest, and I am having a hard time finding credible data, is the percentage increase or decrease of cloud cover over 30N-30S in the Pacific. Long Wave radiation doesn't do squat in warm water, in fact, it may enhance the cooling of the water. Short Wave tho, now that is a real heat wave maker in regards to water. I would very much like to see temps rise 1.0C worldwide during the next Century. During past Holocene periods, when the temps were that warm, the earth was in glorious splendor. Warmth is our friend, cold is our enemy in regards to human beings and mammals. I wish the IPCC had a handle on the hydro/cloud cycles, but they don't and that is just the way it is at present.
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ant42
Level 3 Rank
Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 129
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Post by ant42 on Aug 12, 2014 8:18:37 GMT
If the last Kelvin Wave achieved bugger all i can't see any others doing any better.
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Post by graywolf on Aug 12, 2014 10:34:25 GMT
Hi A.V.! I think the last KW helped push up global temps via the ocean component in may/june?
As for the KW attempting to push out?
If the studies on the reasons behind the increased Trades are correct then warming of the tropical Pacific (by another KW)whilst the Atlantic is heading into winter (i.e. the ITCZ is down with you guys) might allow for a weakening of the walker cell causing all the trouble and allow the trades to fall slack?
A period of slack , or reversed trades will allow the warm bulge to relax back into the basin ( ever wonder why we had been seeing so many central Pacific based Ninos??? Well with the descending walker cell pushing the americas off the menu for the plume the mid Pacific was as far as the waves could push out)further reinforcing the KW now in the making.
It's not as if we need wait for the warm bulge to 'recharge' is it? there is so much water/heat stacked up there it will take a long while for it to settle back into 'normal' dimensions ( maybe not as long as it took it to form though!) once the trades get back down to normal values?
Things do make a lot more sense to me now I've read the paper on the walker cell/trades. The mudoki's, the failed nino's , the stunted ninos? It seemed a bit lame for it all to be a struggling PDO-ve to have been responsible for all the Ninas and messed up nino's (in my mind at least)but a warming driven imbalance between the two tropical ocean basins? The evidence all fits the observations but leaves us with the prospect of problems just around the corner.
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