|
Post by duwayne on Aug 12, 2014 14:44:58 GMT
Graywolf, now that your posts incorporate the “hiatus” and the importance of the natural ocean current cycles in the climate process, they make much more sense to me.
My comment… The 60-year cycle was in place before the CO2 growth began. It has continued while CO2 grew rapidly over the past 70+ years. Slight global warming seems to be a questionable basis for predicting the cycles will stop now.
If this cool cycle is very short, won't that mean that the next warm cycle will be short since the ocean current cycles don't create energy?
If the ocean cycles shorten or stop, is it reasonable to expect GHG warming to suddenly accelerate such that the global warming from GHG’s alone equals the rate when the warm cycle was in place? Or does the recognition of the importance of ocean cycles mean that global warming will be much slower than you previously predicted?
|
|
|
Post by cuttydyer on Aug 12, 2014 15:40:47 GMT
Phys Org reports: "study of clam fossils has revealed clear patterns of the ENSO and report that it has not been increasing in intensity over the course of the Holocene as some have suggested."(Phys.org) —A research team working in Peru, with members from France, Peru and the U.S. has found a way to track the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) going back as far as ten thousand years. In their paper published in the journal Science, the team reports that their study of clam fossils has revealed clear patterns of the ENSO and report that it has not been increasing in intensity over the course of the Holocene as some have suggested. Link: phys.org/news/2014-08-clam-fossils-year-history-el.html#ajTabs
|
|
|
Post by icefisher on Aug 12, 2014 15:46:47 GMT
Hi A.V.! I think the last KW helped push up global temps via the ocean component in may/june? As for the KW attempting to push out? If the studies on the reasons behind the increased Trades are correct then warming of the tropical Pacific (by another KW)whilst the Atlantic is heading into winter (i.e. the ITCZ is down with you guys) might allow for a weakening of the walker cell causing all the trouble and allow the trades to fall slack? A period of slack , or reversed trades will allow the warm bulge to relax back into the basin ( ever wonder why we had been seeing so many central Pacific based Ninos??? Well with the descending walker cell pushing the americas off the menu for the plume the mid Pacific was as far as the waves could push out)further reinforcing the KW now in the making. It's not as if we need wait for the warm bulge to 'recharge' is it? there is so much water/heat stacked up there it will take a long while for it to settle back into 'normal' dimensions ( maybe not as long as it took it to form though!) once the trades get back down to normal values? Things do make a lot more sense to me now I've read the paper on the walker cell/trades. The mudoki's, the failed nino's , the stunted ninos? It seemed a bit lame for it all to be a struggling PDO-ve to have been responsible for all the Ninas and messed up nino's (in my mind at least)but a warming driven imbalance between the two tropical ocean basins? The evidence all fits the observations but leaves us with the prospect of problems just around the corner. Problems? Its really hard to find anything out of normal Graywolf. Is there anything at all that indicates that our most recent decade and a half is significantly different than what occurred in the 1930's and 40's? Climate science is chock full of half baked theories. A decade ago we were being regaled with a theory that atmospheric circulation and the greenhouse effect were the only relevant issues. Now that it commonly accepted that was a bunch of hogwash the focus is on the oceans. Without a global ocean circulation model we are back to guessing and of course there are no global ocean circulation models because nobody seems to have clue one as to how the oceans are the temperature they are. . . .namely a lot colder than the surface much less how that temperature might vary.
|
|
|
Post by sigurdur on Aug 13, 2014 1:18:29 GMT
|
|
ant42
Level 3 Rank
Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 129
|
Post by ant42 on Aug 13, 2014 8:49:03 GMT
I meant Graywolf that it did bugger all to bring on the el nino.
I expect this one to do the same, the atmosphere is now trying to connect but trades are just too strong.
|
|
|
Post by graywolf on Aug 13, 2014 9:35:43 GMT
We will just have to wait and see A.V.! Your BOM are still keeping 'watch' status but are now talking of a 'spring' Nino?
Sorry to bang on a bout the Trades so much but the Walker Cell Paper has really piqued my interest!
The past few years have seen Nino forecast and then the event has gone T.U. even to the point of seeing Nina conditions assert for a spell. The fact that the event have all started when the N. Tropical Atlantic is at its coolest ( with the sun over your tropic) might be hinting at a Walker Cell 'calm down' allowing the trades to back off enough for a KW to push out?
If this pattern is becoming 'stronger', as parity between the basins approaches, then we would expect to see ever stronger KW pushing out before our summer warming kyboshes things by again exaggerating the temp differences between the basins and upping the trades again?
The record size of the last KW seems to support this?
Come next Jan Feb we should again see sustained WWB develop and another big KW push out. If we still have some of the forming ( or next?) KW's warmth then we would see quite a strong Nino signal as we enter into our summer warm up. If warm enough to offset the Atlantic's summer warmth then it's 'Game On' for a full blown Nino.
I would again emphasise that this next Nino might well also lead to the flip in the IPO and so PDO and signal a resumption in atmospheric warming. Were this to occur then I'd expect a decades worth of Nino predominance and their impacts on global atmospheric temps to follow?
|
|
|
Post by Ratty on Aug 13, 2014 11:12:13 GMT
Having followed this conversation (to the best of my [very] limited ability), I conclude that no one - on either side of the argument - has any idea of the future direction of climate. PS: But what would I know? Astromet?
|
|
|
Post by sigurdur on Aug 13, 2014 11:15:55 GMT
Having followed this conversation (to the best of my [very] limited ability), I conclude that no one - on either side of the argument - has any idea of the future direction of climate. PS: But what would I know? Astromet? ;-) Ratty: All depends on cloud formation, placement etc. SW radiation from the sun is still what drives ocean temps.
|
|
|
Post by Ratty on Aug 13, 2014 11:19:10 GMT
Sig, Agree. I've posted on seniors' (believers) forums here in Oz, pictures of complex cloud patterns under the title "Model that!"
|
|
|
Post by sigurdur on Aug 13, 2014 12:39:54 GMT
Graywolf has valid points in his last two posts.
What this year has once again shown is that models etc are not predictive. We just don't have the dynamics down well enough. The main thing, to me, that the models of energy imbalance (if there truly is an energy imbalance) don't recognize are the error ranges of measurements at TOA. And they also ignore that CO2 (long wave radiation) probably cools the ocean more in the tropics 30s-30n, than it warms. Evaporation is fast, long wave only penetrates a few microns, excites the water to evaporate even faster.
What is troublesome is that the atmosphere has not gained in AH values. The small changes in both directions are well within the error bars of the measurements.
This all gets back to cloud cover.
And that...........is a total crap shoot.
|
|
|
Post by graywolf on Aug 13, 2014 21:27:46 GMT
It seems my take on things might share some scientific support? “The rapid warming of the Atlantic Ocean created high pressure zones in the upper atmosphere over that basin and low pressure zones close to the surface of the ocean,” said Prof Axel Timmermann, co-lead and corresponding author from the University of Hawaii. “The rising air parcels, over the Atlantic eventually sink over the eastern tropical Pacific, thus creating higher surface pressure there. The enormous pressure see-saw with high pressure in the Pacific and low pressure in the Atlantic gave the Pacific trade winds an extra kick, amplifying their strength. It’s like giving a playground roundabout an extra push as it spins past.” Many climate models appear to have underestimated the magnitude of the coupling between the two ocean basins, which may explain why they struggled to produce the recent increase in Pacific Equatorial trade wind trends. While active, the stronger Equatorial trade winds have caused far greater overturning of ocean water in the West Pacific, pushing more atmospheric heat into the ocean, as shown by co-author and ARCCSS Chief Investigator Prof Matthew England earlier this year. This increased overturning appears to explain much of the recent slowdown in the rise of global average surface temperatures. Importantly, the researchers don’t expect the current pressure difference between the two ocean basins to last. When it does end, they expect to see some rapid changes, including a sudden acceleration of global average surface temperatures. “It will be difficult to predict when the Pacific cooling trend and its contribution to the global hiatus in surface temperatures will come to an end,” Prof England said. “However, a large El Niño event is one candidate that has the potential to drive the system back to a more synchronized Atlantic/Pacific warming situation.” from ; dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/08/03/new-study-sees-atlantic-warming-behind-a-host-of-recent-climate-shifts/?partner=rss&emc=rss
|
|
|
Post by sigurdur on Aug 13, 2014 23:45:47 GMT
graywolf: The folks you are quoting are late to the game. AG, which I do, has known about the Atlantic/Pacific coupling for well over 40 years. That coupling is one of the main metrics used to forecast long term. NOAA and NASA seem to not know about the coupling, but private forecasters, who at this time have a much better track record of probabilities being observed, use this pressure/temp differential.
The drought of 88 was forecast in November of 87, the California drought was forecast 10 years ago by the ag folks. Yes, it came 2 years later than they had thought in the late 90's, but when one is forecasting 10-15 years out 2 years is pretty good.
What gets me is that climate scientists are all of a sudden discovering something so well known. Another major driver is the Greenland High and the Icelandic Low. Watch the position/strength of those two areas and you can predict long term weather pretty dog gone well as they do affect the Pacific dynamics as well.
The earth is a really intercoupled system. What I can't get a handle on, and I find troublesome, is the current record cold over Antarctica, expanding sea ice, and potentially larger land based ice. This is in conjunction with what appears to be a stabilized Arctic once again.
I had thought there was at least 2 more years of low ice in the Arctic, but I am being proven wrong. 2012 may have been the bottom for the next 60 years.
Astromet is not totally nutty. Sure, some things seem to be a ways off, but at least he looks at the full picture. Well, to a point. CO2 is a greenhouse gas, and is potentially filling the hole that the lower AH trend is showing to keep us from cooling off even faster.
I don't know a cause etc, but when looking at atmospheric H2O vapor trends, they sure seem to follow the sun cycle strength etc. I believe it gets back to the SW radiation thing, and maybe Svensmark has a valid point as well.
There is so much that I don't know, and can't seem to find literature to fill the missing holes. Everything is dedicated to CO2 crap, instead of looking at the WHOLE picture. One little piece of a jig saw puzzle isn't making a very good picture presently.
|
|
|
Post by sigurdur on Aug 14, 2014 0:16:19 GMT
In fact, didn't I post a paper about the interconnection between the Atlantic and the Pacific in regards to US drought patterns? I apologize if I didn't post the link. It explained the 30's drought, and the current and past California droughts.
|
|
|
Post by sigurdur on Aug 14, 2014 0:17:21 GMT
And then there was another paper showing that what happens over Europe coincides with what happens in China, India and Pakistan.
The teleconnection is obvious.
|
|
|
Post by icefisher on Aug 14, 2014 6:30:01 GMT
“It will be difficult to predict when the Pacific cooling trend and its contribution to the global hiatus in surface temperatures will come to an end,” Prof England said. “However, a large El Niño event is one candidate that has the potential to drive the system back to a more synchronized Atlantic/Pacific warming situation.” So warming of the Atlantic causes La Nina cooling of the Pacific, so extending the logic does is not cooling of the Atlantic needed to create the cure of an El Nino? Lets face it this is not science. Ocean temperature is dominated by huge convection cycles within the ocean or else the ocean bottoms would be hotter than the ocean surface by a considerable margin. The average swing in temperature is huge due to these convection cycles. This study does nothing whatsoever to identify causation of ocean cycles. We have had to put up with this El Nino "Great White Hope" nonsense now for the last 5 El Ninos (6 if you want to count this one) without anything but a deepening loss of claimed CO2 effects. This theory being marketed as fresh meat looks about as fresh as a rotten corpse.
|
|