I said further up thread but will repeat again I believe that we will see a 'double whammy' Nino with these near Nino conditions persisting through into next year when , again, we will see the Trades fall light and another larger KW slosh back east, reinforcing the warmth straddling the equator.
It becomes increasingly clear that these record Trades are the thing that is adding into the failure of Nino's. We have seen both forecast Nino's failing to arise and Nino's form yet remain stunted and short lived. To me I see a pattern and that is the lack of atmospheric coupling due to the excessive strength of the trades.
Come the northern winter solstice the sun is at it's farthest from the equator plus over and ocean dominated hemisphere. The temp imbalance between tropical Atlantic and Pacific falls to its lowest value for the year and the trades slacken. We see all the water that the trades no longer hold back slosh East but only in time for the Sun to again begin to increase the imbalance as it travels back North. By July the trades are back to supercharged and so no atmospheric coupling can take place.
With a warm ribbon already in place ( and global temps responding) the Jan/Mar 'slosh back' of the warm pool serves to boost any near nino/weak Nino into moderate Nino territory well before the sun again impacts the two basins with its maximum strength and so the atmosphere then couples to the event and we see more WWB's and more water head East from the inflated warm pool in the west Pacific.
Sadly it does not stop there. We already see PDO responding to changes and any long term ( 12 month?) disruption to the trades may drive a flip in the IPO leading to enhanced atmospheric warming over the Pacific ( so ending the imbalance) which , in its turn further reinforces the PDO positive.
Currently we are 1 hurricane away, in the eastern Pacific ,to setting a record for them over any season so patterns already appear to be 'altered'. Any look at the synoptics over the summer Arctic these past two years will also highlight change there, the same with the pressure over Greenland or the weather over the US. Since 2012 global weather appears to have 'shifted' and so different areas are seeing different forcings ( we lost our washout summers here in the UK! ...Huzzah!) so could this 'shift' have subtly altered the forcings that gave rise to the enhanced trades and all that comes with that change? I believe we are about to find out!!!
LOL! Gotta give you credit, you hang in there!
Double whammy huh? Gee, Graywolf that prediction is already kaput! Unless of course you are talking about the next two years or more! And of course you aren't because the first whammy you predicted for last year and it barely made a whimper, heating all the way to .1 deg for 2 overlapping seasons, about 5 times short of an El Nino for only 40% of the necessary length. . . .it could not even be termed a "warm" neutral event the prediction was so far off, despite having a lot of physical precursors in place. Trade winds huh? Gee is that another "perfect storm" Graywolf? LOL! It appears that CAGW is the progenitor of one heckuva a lot of "perfect storms" to blow out of the water nearly every prediction you have made on this forum.
Astromet called the neutral and is predicting no El Ninos until at least 2020. Are you predicting 2, or more?
There will be no ENSO this year, or next year, or the year after that. We will see a warm year in 2015, but it will not be El Nino, rather, what will happen in 2015 will be the last gasp of solar-forced global warming which will produce, along with the planetary modulations, a warm climate for 2015 that will extend into 2016.
The next ENSO will be a powerful La Nina, that will impact 2020-2022, with the worst winter season in the northern hemisphere in 2021-2022, and it will rival the last brutal winter of 2014 and set new weather records for cold temperatures, heavy snowfall and ice.
In my climate forecast, there will be no ENSO until 2020, and that one will be La Nina – a very strong one at that.
Until 2020, we will see strange cool plumes in worldwide sea surface temperatures; a lack of hurricanes; along with the continued growth and expansion of the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extents.
This is the trending to Global Cooling, which I have forecasted to begin officially in December 2017 and last approximately 36 years.
ENSO events are solar-planetary forced and occur every 10-11 years. The last ENSO, which I forecasted, was a El Nino in mid-2009 that was followed by a La Nina in 2010-11.
Think of ENSO as climate change in action.
You are seeing what amounts to a large scale variability in the circulatory system, and when you take out ENSO you are removing a climate mechanism where the thermal/kinetic exchange to equilibrium is achieved.
ENSO is externally forced through the polar annular modes/AAM, and ENSO is climate change in action. What confounds the computer modellers about ENSO’s cycle is that the thermodynamic response to perturbation is not linear.
ENSO responds to fluctuations by the external forcing from the Sun.
Understand at the dynamics of ENSO and what forces it.
ENSO is forced by the Sun externally because the strength of the trade winds, that’s Walker Cell dynamics, and the AAM integral come before ENSO SST variation.
Now, the atmosphere is the less energetic body, so by definition there has to be an ‘external’ perturbation present.
Evidence of such Solar forcing exists and the relationship is significant:
Corotating coronal holes of the Sun induce fluctuations of the solar wind speed in the vicinity of the Earth.
These fluctuations of solar wind speed are closely correlated with geomagnetic activity and the resultant geophysical climate and weather effects on Earth.
It is basic to Astrometeorology. That is what I do.
Now, solar wind speeds have been observed and monitored by orbiting Earth satellites since the mid-1960s. The long-term series of solar wind speed clearly reveals enhanced amplitudes at the solar rotation period of 27.3 days and at its harmonics 13.6 and 9.1 days.
The amplitude series are modulated by a quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) that has a period of 1.75a (that’s 21 months) as bispectral analysis reveals.
A 1.75a QBO component is also present in the equatorial, zonal wind of the stratosphere at 30 hPa, in addition to the well-known QBO component at the period 2.4a (at 29 months.)
The solar wind QBO influences the stratospheric QBO, the global electric circuit, and cloud cover by modulation of ionospheric electric fields, cosmic ray flux and particle precipitation.
And the series of solar wind speed fluctuations are bandpass-filtered at the period 1.75a. The filtered series provide the amplitude of the solar wind QBO as function of time.
The maxima of the solar wind QBO series correlate with those of the ENSO Index. Analysis confirms that the solar wind QBO helps to trigger ENSO activity.
The solar forcing of ENSO is done by changes in meridional flux through the NAM/SAM and that ties directly right back into planetary wave action.
In volume 36, issue 17, of the September 2009 Geophysical Research Letters, Rodrigo Caballero and Bruce T. Anderson state that:
“Stationary planetary waves are excited in the mid-latitudes, propagate equatorward and are absorbed in the subtropics. The impact these waves have on the tropical climate has yet to be fully unraveled.
“Previous work has shown that interannual variability of zonal-mean stationary eddy stress is well correlated with interannual variability in Hadley cell strength. A separate line of research has shown that changes in midlatitude planetary waves local to the Pacific strongly affect ENSO variability.
“Here, we show that the two phenomena are in fact closely connected. Interannual variability of wave activity flux impinging on the subtropical central Pacific affects the local Hadley cell. The associated changes in subtropical subsidence affect the surface pressure field and wind stresses, which in turn affect ENSO.
“As a result, a winter with an anomalously weak Hadley cell tends to be followed a year later by an El Niño event.”
Moreover, there is a link from the Pacific Meridional Mode to ENSO, as Ping Chang and Link Ji from Texas A&M University at College Station, Texas wrote in late 2008:
“The occurrence of a boreal spring phenomenon referred to as the Pacific Meridional Model (MM) is shown to be intimately linked to the development of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in a long simulation of a coupled model.
The MM, characterized by an anomalous north–south SST gradient and anomalous surface circulation in the northeasterly trade regime with maximum variance in boreal spring, is shown to be inherent to thermodynamic ocean–atmosphere coupling in the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) latitude, and the MM existence is independent of ENSO.
“The thermodynamic coupling enhances the persistence of the anomalous winds in the deep tropics, forcing energetic equatorially trapped oceanic waves to occur in the central western Pacific, which in turn initiate an ENSO event. The majority of ENSO events in both nature and the coupled model are preceded by MM events.”
Now, the reasons why NOAA/NWS and every other conventional climate center on Earth, along with climatologists and their computer models cannot forecast ENSO; is that their computer models are shit.
ENSO is an *astronomically-caused* climate event.
And clearly the algorithms in their overblown and error-filled computer models are not programmed to understand ENSO.
That is why they cannot forecast it and every single year they come out with forecasts on ENSO and they fail.
They did it last time when I forecasted the 2009-2011 ENSO three years in advance, from 2006.
Rather, what conventional modellers do is that they take an initial condition and then they apply their own perturbation theories to attempt to get a future projection – and those projections are always wrong, wrong, wrong.
In truth, in the real world of climate, ENSO is NOT an internally driven or a chaotic phenomenon.
ENSO is a solar and planetary magnetically-driven event that forces upper stratospheric U-flow/QBO and you can witness the results and impact on the N/S annular modes.
Reports from the CFS project on the 2011 La Nina that I forecasted fell to -4C because those expensive computer models are founded on absolutely useless methods on the given boundary conditions that they use to project from.
It means that they are essentially using a system dynamic that *drives* the system state, rather than the other way around. They have it ass backwards.
For instance, if you subtract ENSO, then you also have to subtract the poleward migration of Hadley cells/expansion of the Ferrel cells seen since solar year 1976.
Now, once you do that, you will lose the 3-4 percent decrease that’s observed in tropical cloud cover. Therefore, you lose essentially all of the warming that has occurred since the 1970s and that relates to about 3.5W/m^2 of loss since 1982.
NOAA/NWS and every other climate forecast center do not successfully produce accurate seasonal forecasts.
Again, that’s because their models are only programmed to the general governing equations that are put into them.
For years now, with all that money they’ve wasted, the computer climate modeling world is a total disaster and they have to know it after busting every season, every year, year in and year out.
Again, there will be no ENSO until 2020. We will see signatures by mid-2019 when things really begin to get interesting, but by 2020 there will a full blown La Nina that will be in force for 2.5 years according to my calculations.
The worst of it will be during the winter of 2021-2022 – a really bad and long winter season followed by a cold, wet spring and cool summer of 2022.
ENSO is climate change in action and that climate change is to GLOBAL COOLING, which officially begins in December 2017. That’s been my forecast and people had better prepare for it too.
~ Theodore White, Astromet