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Post by sigurdur on Nov 22, 2014 2:02:51 GMT
Ok. I don't see much chance of a meaningful El Nino in 2015. I know the odds are that the world should experience one. But, I just can't see it. There isn't enough difference in surface water temps to propel one, the Humboldt Current is still barreling strong. World cloud cover seems to have increased, which blocks the SW radiation that drives deeper ocean temps. Kelvin waves continue in the ocean, slightly warm one followed by a cool one.
I hope I am wrong. The world continue to not warm, and looks to be cooling. I was hoping an El Nino would get us back on track for warming, as food production will continue to rise as long as it continues to warm.
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Post by scpg02 on Nov 22, 2014 2:46:29 GMT
Ok it's not scientific but my women's intuition says no el Nino.
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Post by sigurdur on Nov 22, 2014 3:27:44 GMT
Another thought: Australia's current weather is not following the normal path that an early El Nino would indicate.
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Post by flearider on Nov 22, 2014 15:46:22 GMT
"the odds are" can you apply that to a semi if not fully chaotic system ? those words should never be spoken about science and weather
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Post by nautonnier on Nov 22, 2014 16:47:17 GMT
"the odds are" can you apply that to a semi if not fully chaotic system ? those words should never be spoken about science and weather It called a Bayesian Prior
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ant42
Level 3 Rank
Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 129
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Post by ant42 on Nov 22, 2014 19:48:48 GMT
Another thought: Australia's current weather is not following the normal path that an early El Nino would indicate. I posted this a while back Sig. We will have a weak El Nino. The weather here is eerily similar to 2009, as i said it would be. Bushfires early in the year, freezing winter, hot Spring and now humid. And almost to the same day, we had 48mm of rain, almost monthly average, from a strong upper trough moving through which broke the cycle of hot weather. In 2009 we had the same scenario on the 21st of November, with widespread 40-50mm falls. And from then on it was very humid all summer and stormy, and then in the autumn of 2010 we commenced our run of 30 months of ridiculous rainfall. So far its so similar its scary. Which leads me to a theory that in a cold PDO, the El Ninos have little effect on our rainfall once they occur. However, we have very dry conditions through the interior in the 6 months leading up to it, which is right now. In a normal El nino the dry period goes right through summer and finally breaks late autumn. As you can see from this GFS forecast, the upper high parked off the NE coast has now been eroded, as has the one sitting through the interior. Lots of moisture now sitting over the country and giving us good rainfall, mainly with storms. Im still convinced that the same will repeat the next 2 years.
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Post by icefisher on Nov 23, 2014 3:26:04 GMT
Hi Siggy! I'm looking at the 'long paddock' data from BOM which has been well negative for a number of weeks now? As for why the 'fuel' has not been able to be used it is the strength of the Trades ( which hold the waters in the west) to blame and these , we are told, are at record levels due to the walker cell working overtime to balance the temps between tropical Atlantic and Pacific. It would appear that these basins are now approaching parity and so the buffed up walker cell will relax and hence the trades will fall light. The past 4 or 5 years have seen Nino forecast in late Nov/December and we have even seen a couple of instances where the Nino looks to be getting started only for the trades to again pick up come June/July. Could Northern summer be a case for this and southern summer ( over mainly ocean) be the reason we see the trades drop back in late Jan/Early Feb? Anyhow it does appear that we are seeing change? PDO has stayed positive for the past 10 months and plenty of Nino impacted areas are acting like Nino is already up and running? Once again we see the agencies going for Nino conditions from now on but I'd again say that I'm expecting another record Kelvin wave to develop and push east? Should the trades not intervene come summer then I think we will see a steadily growing Nino as wave after wave pushes out and the height of the warm pool begin to reduce? Of course this would also see the IPO shift positive as the winds fall light and ocean surface heating replaces the subduction of this heating? PDO positive, IPO positive, Nino conditions prevalent? all we need is for China's particulate pollution to plummet and we might get a real feel for where global temps are headed? EDIT: Another global record warm month for October then? ( knocking September off the top spot) and a record warm first 10 months of the year? Looking like a record warm year might well be the result of this ENSO neutral, alleged PDO negative?IPO negative Arctic recovery type of a year eh? Thats pretty damned funny! Graywolf makes clean energy sound like the biggest threat to mankind!
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Post by AstroMet on Nov 23, 2014 4:34:59 GMT
Ok. I don't see much chance of a meaningful El Nino in 2015. I know the odds are that the world should experience one. But, I just can't see it. There isn't enough difference in surface water temps to propel one, the Humboldt Current is still barreling strong. World cloud cover seems to have increased, which blocks the SW radiation that drives deeper ocean temps. Kelvin waves continue in the ocean, slightly warm one followed by a cool one. I hope I am wrong. The world continue to not warm, and looks to be cooling. I was hoping an El Nino would get us back on track for warming, as food production will continue to rise as long as it continues to warm. I kept saying that there would be no El Nino, and that ENSO is a decadal event, climate change in action that is forced by the Sun. NOAA will go on and on with their ENSO neutral bullshit, but they have never forecasted an ENSO and it looks as if they will not be able to in the future either, since nothing has changed in that organization. You can't even get an accurate seasonal forecast from NOAA. The next ENSO, as I have forecasted, will be of the powerful cold La Nina phase from 2020-2022, and it will take place in a climate regime of global cooling, which will have officially begun in mid-December 2017. As for my 2015 forecast, we will see a warm year in 2015, and part of 2016 Sigurdur, but it will be the last two remaining years solar-forced global warming, and then that will be that. Global cooling has been trending for over 10 years, and will officially be here in 2017 and then the giant climate disaster begins in earnest. I've been forecasting global cooling for many years now and we are closer. All the whining and AGW madness in the universe is not going to stop the Sun from starting its Grand Minimum phase. We are about to enter a new neo boreal age, and this global cooling climate change will be a deep and abrupt one, lasting 36 years, according to my climate forecast. Those who get ready for it now will have a better chance of survival than most of the people who have done nothing but talk and whine about 'man-made global warming,' which of course is impossible.
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Post by nautonnier on Dec 1, 2014 14:06:30 GMT
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Post by douglavers on Dec 6, 2014 19:24:48 GMT
For what it is worth, it does not feel a bit like an El Nino in Oz at the moment.
There has been heavy rain/hail/storms all down the East Coast and the interior.
It has even rained hard in sunny Victoria.
Looking at the forecast, low pressure seems entrenched across the continent for the next few days.
In real El Ninos, it just does not rain for months on end, over vast areas.
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Post by nonentropic on Dec 6, 2014 21:19:57 GMT
So maybe there are different types of El Nino.
As with most things in academia knowledge usually reveals more complexity. Simple pictures of "settled" understanding are signals of ignorance. Al Gore is clearly one of these. As they say he is lying of stupid. (a combo is also a possibility)
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Post by Ratty on Dec 7, 2014 0:08:58 GMT
Sunny Victoria? Victoria's motto is "On the move" and you know where they are moving to ..... Sunny Queensland: Sorry Doug .....
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Post by douglavers on Dec 7, 2014 1:45:54 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 7, 2014 1:58:30 GMT
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Post by Ratty on Dec 7, 2014 10:15:02 GMT
Alarmist press Doug. You know that .....
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