timb
New Member
Posts: 45
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Post by timb on Feb 21, 2014 21:32:58 GMT
As long as SC24 is peaking (double peaking), La Nina-like conditions will persist. There is good correlation between solar cycle peaks (weak solar dipole) and La Nina-like conditions.
On the other hand, last year was an "El Nino-like" hurricane season. Not sure what that means but I'll take the best of both worlds.
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Post by flearider on Feb 21, 2014 21:35:03 GMT
not with all that cold water still coming off Antarctica ..upwelling east of s.a and swirling round Australia
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 23, 2014 23:21:49 GMT
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Post by graywolf on Feb 26, 2014 19:47:47 GMT
Now it looks like we are getting a couple of cyclones to aid the westerlies and 'boost' that warm pool thats heading East? Could be an interesting couple of weeks ahead......
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 27, 2014 0:59:21 GMT
Now it looks like we are getting a couple of cyclones to aid the westerlies and 'boost' that warm pool thats heading East? Could be an interesting couple of weeks ahead...... graywolf: I like your line of thinking, but it still looks like this is going to be a flash in the pan, and not an actual El Nino.
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Post by karlox on Feb 27, 2014 10:06:24 GMT
I anticipate a weak La Niña (-0.5) before EL Niño strikes this year, and when it finally comes it wouldn´t be as strong neither long lasting as anticipated or expected (cold PDO). This is just a bet!
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ant42
Level 3 Rank
Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 129
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Post by ant42 on Feb 27, 2014 10:56:52 GMT
One of the forums here in OZ has people talking about a Super El nino.
Two days later after reading it I'm still not finished with the laughter.
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Post by icefisher on Feb 27, 2014 17:52:28 GMT
From day 1 catastrophic anthropogenic global warming was built entirely on top of a period of transition to El Nino dominance.
Obviously the dominance must continue. Hope for an early return to El Nino dominance rather than a normal return will spring eternal. Gray Wolf will embrace the obvious El Nino conditions that exist, that periodically exist no matter what dominates.
The ENSO models are also recognizing these conditions. We are in fact entering our second year of these conditions. The only thing still missing is a source of heat to warm the globe.
Super El Nino events occur almost like clockwork. The solar cycle controls this pattern of super El Ninos which emerge with regularity as the sun awakens from its minimum. Super El Ninos also occur at other times as the ENSO oscillation has a period of roughly half a solar cycle.
Whether we get a strong El Nino or not I think is uncertain. But even if we do, the dominance of the solar cycle over longer term temperature trends from year to year seems more influential than El Nino.
A typical super El Nino just doesn't have the oomph to put the observation record anywhere near the model forecasts. What that would require would not be just an ordinary super El Nino. Instead it would require a super duper extra strong platinum plated record shattering El Nino.
Maybe the CAGW climate scientists will beckon the missing heat to rise out of the ocean like Lazarus in concert with an El Nino and soon Sigurdur will be growing cotton in North Dakota. Hope springs eternal!
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 27, 2014 18:26:34 GMT
Yep.....-29F on Feb 27th. Not a record, but surely a tad on the cool side. The cotton weevils left for warmer climates. Maybe next year.....
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Post by karlox on Feb 27, 2014 18:41:39 GMT
From day 1 catastrophic anthropogenic global warming was built entirely on top of a period of transition to El Nino dominance. Obviously the dominance must continue. Hope for an early return to El Nino dominance rather than a normal return will spring eternal. Gray Wolf will embrace the obvious El Nino conditions that exist, that periodically exist no matter what dominates. The ENSO models are also recognizing these conditions. We are in fact entering our second year of these conditions. The only thing still missing is a source of heat to warm the globe. Super El Nino events occur almost like clockwork. The solar cycle controls this pattern of super El Ninos which emerge with regularity as the sun awakens from its minimum. Super El Ninos also occur at other times as the ENSO oscillation has a period of roughly half a solar cycle. Whether we get a strong El Nino or not I think is uncertain. But even if we do, the dominance of the solar cycle over longer term temperature trends from year to year seems more influential than El Nino. A typical super El Nino just doesn't have the oomph to put the observation record anywhere near the model forecasts. What that would require would not be just an ordinary super El Nino. Instead it would require a super duper extra strong platinum plated record shattering El Nino. Maybe the CAGW climate scientists will beckon the missing heat to rise out of the ocean like Lazarus in concert with an El Nino and soon Sigurdur will be growing cotton in North Dakota. Hope springs eternal! Coincidence or not it seems we are having a double max peak in SC24, point is how fast and low deep solar activity might get from here in coming years. El Niño more frequent patterns has been found in close relations with XX century solar maximums.- Now sun has entered a much quieter mode and La Niña have become more frequent while less EL Niño have occurred. Since we are somehow due to EL NIÑO and sun´s getting more active these months we might well have a moderate El Niño coming but what matters is how long it will last and possible La Niña´s strenght and duration, for that will surely follows...
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 27, 2014 18:50:58 GMT
Karlox: Shushhhhhh. I am trying to be pro El Nino here. I don't want to think about La Nina's......damn man...it is already cold enough in the Eastern 2/3 of the USA. Altho....if we have a La Nina.....Europe will cool off as well so sharing the cold may not be all bad? ....
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Post by karlox on Feb 28, 2014 10:18:12 GMT
Karlox: Shushhhhhh. I am trying to be pro El Nino here. I don't want to think about La Nina's......damn man...it is already cold enough in the Eastern 2/3 of the USA. Altho....if we have a La Nina.....Europe will cool off as well so sharing the cold may not be all bad? .... Sigur, wishful thinking -provided we cannot do much to solve a bad situation- is part of our best set of conservation instinc practices... . But what we do know: -Cold PDO started ´round 2000 -Trade winds increase same. -Same with Sun´s activity -An Global Temps hiatus Experts say El Niño is coming sometime and that´s most probably right... but talking of next 3-4 years... wishful thinking! Meantime, right now:
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Post by karlox on Feb 28, 2014 10:30:03 GMT
And here you can see EL NIÑO 3, 2 and 1 (besides 3.4) is also in a cold mood LA NIÑA. North Pacific warm pool persist coincident with residet Blocking High conditioning North America´s winter so far...
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Post by graywolf on Mar 4, 2014 10:00:11 GMT
Weekly update showing the warm pool, at depth, spreading east and the cyclone to the north of the equator driving weaterlies around the international date line.
PDO region still showing the 'warm horse shoe' of PDO+ve ( and also throughout the seasonal forecast runs) so maybe even a PDO flip over the coming months ?
Any more eqatorial cyclones in the run up to April looks likely to seal the nino deal?
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Post by graywolf on Mar 4, 2014 10:00:29 GMT
I can understand the sceptics reluctence to natural drivers flip to warming but surely that clock is ticking?
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