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Post by Ufasuperstorm on Dec 27, 2014 16:57:50 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 27, 2014 17:48:18 GMT
Current SST anomalies in the ENSO regions. There has been a significant SST anomaly decrease within the last week. This should come as no surprise since the PDF corrected forecasts have been showing this for months. Look for decreasing weekly average values in the upcoming NOAA and BOM updates. www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean.html(This source is updated 4 times a day) Yep. If and that is a BIG IF, an El Nino actually develops, it is going to be a minor one.
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Post by graywolf on Dec 28, 2014 14:18:30 GMT
I still don't see it siggy? There is too much warm water piled up and waiting to slosh back for it not to both occur and drive atmospheric cooperation. If I was fooled by the trades last summer I do not think that I will again this year? With nearly a years worth of positive PDO values in the bag we have to accept that things are changing ( the last time we had a run this long was back in 97'?).
The past 2 years have brought us info both on the reason the trades have been so powerful recently and also that we have now seen ocean basin temps ( Pacific/Atlantic) nearing parity ( and so removing the forcing driving the strong trades).
The current global temps are high and appear to have been 'propped up' by high sst's so the subduction of those warmed surface waters is also reducing ( allowing that warmth to enter the atmosphere instead of being taken down into the ocean) again hinting at a lessening of wind strength over the tropical ocean basins.
We might even infer that the pattern change to the weather over the Arctic these past two summers is also hinting at a 'change' to what had become normal there?
So I'm still seeing a big bulge of warmed waters in the west Pacific with less and less holding it in place there. Even without KW's pushing that heat back east gravity must see it relax back into the central Pacific basin bringing us something resembling a Modoki?
The elephant in the room has to be global temps? If near threshold temps are enough to produce global temps higher than a super nino did only a decade and a half ago what should we expect our 'average' global temps to become now the oceans heat is no longer being subducted as efficiently as it was?
So Nino or near Nino it looks like 2015 will be posting temps again in excess of the 98' super nino peak and where does that leave the 'faux pause' in global temps? Surely only a fool would highlight non nino years trumping super Nino years as proof of a pause now wouldn't they? and if we took a line from the last 'near nino year' in 97' and joined it to 2014's temps what rate of change of global temp increase would that show???
As I've said repeatedly over the past year the negative natural forcings that brought us the faux pause are now weakening/flipping. When 'non Nino' years best 'super' Nino years what does this tell us? It tells us that the processes that effectively took surface ocean heating into the deeper ocean are now failing and the heat from the oceans is now entering the atmosphere. What happens when a portion of the 'stored heat' also joins in the show?
That warm bulge in the west Pacific is a portion of that stored heat and be it via a Kelvin wave or by gravity alone it looks to be heading back to warm the atmosphere over the coming months.
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Post by icefisher on Dec 28, 2014 15:35:36 GMT
Graywolf, its always easy to out a lot of anecdotal variations to build a case for a prediction, but the fact is for CAGW to be taken seriously again will require about three consecutive 1997/8 super el ninos to match climate model temperature predictions. Sure there is a little bit of mildly warm water in the west and the Pentad analysis suggests it extends to depth but its nothing unusual. Short term models show cooling in the ENSO area and a delay until summer before the models show the possibility of an El Nino. I don't pretend to be an expert in predicting ENSO, but it is notable that the Gulf of Alaska has been developing a cold area over the past 3+ months. We have not seen this in quite some time and its a signature of the cold phase of the PDO kicking back in. Its normal for the multidecadal phases of the PDO to enter and exit its signature phase during its span and the only unique identifier is which mode is dominant. This phenomena tends to ride the solar cycle so a several year hiatus from its dominant mode during the appropriate phase of the solar cycle is to be expected. Solar maximum should be wrapping up soon within the next couple of years. Time is running out for double dipper super El Ninos. My prediction is current El Nino conditions will fade over the next few months. If another event gathers force by next summer thats a matter that none of our agencies or academic institions have any historical skill to predict.
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 28, 2014 18:05:32 GMT
Greywolf: Nino 1-2 region is so cold that water flowing from the west will only bring it up to normals.
I am not sure that the trades will behave differently in 2015. There is a lot that we don't know as to the drivers of the trades.
I had a hard time seeing an El Nino be birthed last year, altho I was hoping for one. I am having a hard time seeing an El Nino of consequence birthed this year, given present conditions.
The odds are that there is going to be one. Ya can only go so long without one, and we are in uncharted territory.
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 28, 2014 18:34:45 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 28, 2014 18:59:21 GMT
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Post by duwayne on Dec 29, 2014 15:04:10 GMT
I think the PDO does bear watching here. The historical data are limited and are of questionable accuracy prior to the 1970's, but for what it's worth.....
During the last cool Ocean Current cycle (1947-1977), the average PDO was 0.6 which is the same as the current cool cycle (2007-2014) average so far.
But the maximum monthly value over the 1947-1977 period was 1.8 and that has been matched twice this year.
Moreover, the highest PDO average for a year in the 1947-1977 period was 0.6 and this year the average is significantly above that number at 1.0.
It is notable that even with the high PDO's and with many of the preconditions in place, there was no El Nino this year. And more importantly, the satellite-based RSS global temperature this year will be about 0.3C below the 1997 temperature adding to the 18-year temperature plateau.
It's worth noting that while the PDO is high, the AMO has peaked on schedule and is declining consistent with the cool Ocean Current phase.
But, if the PDO doesn't drop back into the negative readings soon (next year?), I think we could see global temperatures start to climb.
My prediction continues to be that global temperatures will remain flat through 2037.
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Post by neilhamp on Dec 29, 2014 18:50:27 GMT
Joe Bastardi’s latest Weatherbell Saturday Summary is out. This week the high-profile, veteran meteorologist has some interesting comments on sea surface temperatures and this year’s once highly ballyhooed “super El Niño“. At the 6:45 mark Joe remarks: "You can see the water near Australia is beginning to warm up and the water in the eastern Pacific is starting to cool. That is the kiss of death for El Niño, so this El Niño, just like we were saying back in April: No super El Niño. It comes on for the winter, and then it goes. There’s no 2 or 3-year El Niño coming up, or what these guys that want the globe to warm up so that whatever is going with the climate fight and that type of thing. It’s not happening. We took them apart with the super El Niño, and I’ll take them apart again for these guys who think this thing is going to run on for 2 years.” See more at: notrickszone.com/#sthash.4xEqacBD.dpuf
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Post by cuttydyer on Dec 30, 2014 9:49:37 GMT
The elephant in the room has to be global temps? & here's what the elephant looks like: RSS Global Land Temp: RSS Lower Trop. Global Mean:
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Post by icefisher on Dec 30, 2014 19:25:08 GMT
I think the PDO does bear watching here. The historical data are limited and are of questionable accuracy prior to the 1970's, but for what it's worth..... During the last cool Ocean Current cycle (1947-1977), the average PDO was 0.6 which is the same as the current cool cycle (2007-2014) average so far. But the maximum monthly value over the 1947-1977 period was 1.8 and that has been matched twice this year. Moreover, the highest PDO average for a year in the 1947-1977 period was 0.6 and this year the average is significantly above that number at 1.0. Just goes to show how little we know while we are having record positive PDO numbers relative to the cool phase of PDO that should indicate a some temporary dominance towards El Nino, but instead we are currently in a record breaking hiatus from El Nino. The last cool phase did not have a break from El Nino as long as the current break, at least post 1950 when ENSO records began to be compiled. The current break is 53 months, with the previous record at 50 months. This record hiatus will be greatly expanded if an El Nino does not result out of current conditions as current NOAA model average prediction is for the hiatus to extend to 60 months (five years). If Astromet is correct it should extend to 10 years.
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Post by nonentropic on Dec 30, 2014 22:06:16 GMT
In my mind this is an issue of data deficit.
We have quite good global data for 30 or so years we have stitched that onto 100years of patchy data, using some at times ideologically driven integration. Further we know of cycles in climate of the order of that period so how can we claim to understand the future when we are not really sure of the trends in the data. In my mind the errors in the data are of a similar order to the changes being measured and if you don't believe this ask yourself why the homogenization is of a scale to rival the so called changes. We are children claiming to be leaders in climate science. Sounds and looks like "lord of the Flies"
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Post by Ufasuperstorm on Dec 31, 2014 16:31:20 GMT
7 day SST forecast If this is even partly correct we will have a negative daily anomaly in region 3.4 within the next week. In addition the equatorial tropical pacific atmospheric circulation pattern appears to be headed into a La Nina state. Translation: Any chance of even a weak El Niño now appears over.
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 31, 2014 18:13:42 GMT
I wouldn't count out a weak El Nino yet, but the time frame is eroding every day.
It doesn't appear that the Humboldt current is slowing, as required for an El Nino to materialize. That cold Antarctic water just keeps showing up.
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Post by graywolf on Feb 6, 2015 10:07:28 GMT
Nearly time for the PDO numbers for Jan? Another high value month and tongues will be wagging. Should it have contniued strongly positive i think we would need to consider this positive streak in our thinking on Nino formation? We know that positive PDO phases throw up more nino's so the longer we go in this current 'phaselette' the nearer we sail to a nino.......
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