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Post by sigurdur on Apr 12, 2014 12:34:07 GMT
Arctic Ice area is still above 13. With all the Arctic warming............?
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zaphod
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 210
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Post by zaphod on Apr 13, 2014 19:46:19 GMT
4.3
Same methodology as last time.
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Post by neilhamp on Apr 15, 2014 7:36:09 GMT
Wow! 4.3 Zaphod. I thought I was bold with 3.7 What was the methodology last time, Zaphod? Just had a second look at the current level of sea ice on the matrix. Decided to drop my forecast to 3.3
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Post by kenfeldman on Apr 17, 2014 19:37:35 GMT
Being a climate guy (relying more on averages than extremes), I'll go with 2.9 million. The average minimum for the last 10 years (2004 through 2013) is 3.35, for the last 5 years (2009 through 2013) is 3.04 million and the trend has been decreasing. So 2.9 is a bit less than the average for the last 5 years.
The "big recovery" of 2013 (when the minimum was 3.5 million, still way below 4.0 which was the previous low before 2006), is pretty much already gone with the low ice growth so far this year. It looks like the volume is back down to where it was around 2011 and 2012. So it will be up to the weather, as it is always. It could go below 2.2 which was the record in 2012, or come in above average, like it did in 2013.
However, the average has been declining, and it's expected that the Arctic will become ice free at the end of summer sometime before 2030. It would be interesting to see a poll on what year you first expect it to become ice free.
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Post by sigurdur on Apr 17, 2014 20:02:56 GMT
Ken: To me it depends on what the sun does. There seems to be cause/effect with Arctic Ice and the sun cycles.
Also, PIOMASS is showing low ice volume. Cryosat, which now actually measures it instead of modeling it shows a volume increase.
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Post by sigurdur on Apr 17, 2014 20:04:34 GMT
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Post by kenfeldman on Apr 17, 2014 21:45:10 GMT
Ken: To me it depends on what the sun does. There seems to be cause/effect with Arctic Ice and the sun cycles. Also, PIOMASS is showing low ice volume. Cryosat, which now actually measures it instead of modeling it shows a volume increase. There may have been a link between solar cycles and minimum sea ice in the past, but the last decade or so is definetly different. There doesn't appear to be any link between the approximately 11- year long solar cycle and recent Arctic Sea ice behavior the past 30 years. As for Cryosat, I haven't seen any data for 2014 yet. The last post on their website is talking about the bounceback in 2013 and is dated December 2013. Piomass showed that too. If you've been following the Arctic sea ice, you'd know that there has been less than normal growth in the ice this year and that extent and area are abnormally low for this time of year. Do you have access to current (April 2014) cryosat data?
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Post by sigurdur on Apr 17, 2014 23:00:51 GMT
Ken: The latest I have read is this: www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Observing_the_Earth/CryoSat/Arctic_sea_ice_up_from_record_lowFrom December. PIOMAS has so many problems that I don't trust it to be very accurate. Nothing is instantaneous in regards to sun effect. Seems there is always a huge lag, but it does eventually show up. The large increase in ice volume, even tho temps were warm, is a signal to me that the overall trend may be turning. And that turning may only be no increase nor decrease for awhile. I still think we are very similar to MIS-11, that is what all the literature indicates at this time. That tells me that we need to climb at least another 1.5 to 2.0C to be in the running for at least normal Holocene temperatures.
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Post by sigurdur on Apr 30, 2014 21:34:56 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on May 1, 2014 13:00:04 GMT
I am down to 2.5 now. Two more days, then the numbers are cemented in time.
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Post by karlox on May 2, 2014 8:02:25 GMT
Sigur, I´ve just changed my bet from 3.5 to 3.1 upon your advise and futher since 3.1 had no votes and I don´t feel like sharing winner´s Medal and Awards and honors this year... ;-))
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Post by neilhamp on May 2, 2014 12:42:59 GMT
Last year I kept a record of forecast to establish the ultimate winner This year I have decided upon a simpler method
If you wish to enter the "competition" please copy these instructions. Add your forecast to the list below (highest forecast at the top) Then repost the list
zaphod 4.3 neilhamp 3.3 karlox 3.1 sigurdur 2.5
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Post by neilhamp on May 2, 2014 12:48:19 GMT
If you wish to enter the "competition" please copy these instructions. Add your forecast to the list below (highest forecast at the top) Then repost the list
zaphod 4.3 throttlup 4.2 dontgetoutmuch 4.0 icefisher 3.9 flearider 3.3 neilhamp 3.3 karlox 3.1 sigurdur 2.5 birder 2.2
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Post by kenfeldman on May 2, 2014 18:03:19 GMT
I changed my entry to 2.7 to avoid a tie with the other voter at 2.9. I think the Arctic still has another decade before it goes lower than 1.0 million, but that may just be wishful thinking.
If you wish to enter the "competition" please copy these instructions. Add your forecast to the list below (highest forecast at the top) Then repost the list
zaphod 4.3 throttlup 4.2 dontgetoutmuch 4.0 icefisher 3.9 flearider 3.3 neilhamp 3.3 karlox 3.1 kenfeldman 2.7 sigurdur 2.5 birder 2.2
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Post by sigurdur on May 2, 2014 18:07:17 GMT
If you wish to enter the "competition" please copy these instructions. Add your forecast to the list below (highest forecast at the top) Then repost the list
zaphod 4.3 throttlup 4.2 dontgetoutmuch 4.0 icefisher 3.9 flearider 3.3 neilhamp 3.3 karlox 3.1 kenfeldman 2.7 sigurdur 2.5 birder 2.2 I am in..............for the money shot!!!!!!
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