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Post by neilhamp on May 3, 2014 6:56:02 GMT
If you wish to enter the "competition" please copy these instructions. Add your forecast to the list below (highest forecast at the top) Then repost the list
zaphod 4.3 throttlup 4.2 dontgetoutmuch 4.0 icefisher 3.9
2013 - 3.55
flearider 3.3 neilhamp 3.3 karlox 3.1 kenfeldman 2.7 sigurdur 2.5
2012 - 2.33
birder 2.2 I am in..............for the money shot!!!!!!
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Post by phydeaux2363 on May 4, 2014 16:51:35 GMT
If you wish to enter the "competition" please copy these instructions. Add your forecast to the list below (highest forecast at the top) Then repost the list zaphod 4.3 throttlup 4.2 dontgetoutmuch 4.0 icefisher 3.9 flearider 3.3 neilhamp 3.3 karlox 3.1 kenfeldman 2.7 sigurdur 2.5 birder 2.2 I am in..............for the money shot!!!!!!
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Post by cuttydyer on May 5, 2014 5:55:11 GMT
zaphod 4.3 throttlup 4.2
dontgetoutmuch 4.0 icefisher 3.9 Cutty Dyer 3.8
(2013 - 3.55)
flearider 3.3 neilhamp 3.3
karlox 3.1 kenfeldman 2.7
sigurdur 2.5
(2012 - 2.33)
birder 2.2
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Post by neilhamp on May 5, 2014 6:00:04 GMT
If you wish to enter the "competition" please copy these instructions. Add your forecast to the list below (highest forecast at the top) Then repost the list
zaphod 4.3 throttlup 4.2 dontgetoutmuch 4.0 icefisher 3.9 Cutty Dyer 3.8
(2013 - 3.55)
flearider 3.3 neilhamp 3.3 karlox 3.1 kenfeldman 2.7 sigurdur 2.5
(2012 - 2.33)
birder 2.2
The Sea Ice Area Metric for the "competition" was original proposed by sigurdur:
arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html
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Post by cuttydyer on May 5, 2014 6:45:31 GMT
Ooops schoolboy error; apologies Neil, I failed to copy the instructions.
In retribution:
I will comprehensively read the question before writing an answer.I will comprehensively read the question before writing an answer.I will comprehensively read the question before writing an answer.I will comprehensively read the question before writing an answer.I will comprehensively read the question before writing an answer.I will comprehensively read the question before writing an answer.I will comprehensively read the question before writing an answer.I will comprehensively read the question before writing an answer.I will comprehensively read the question before writing an answer.I will comprehensively read the question before writing an answer.I will comprehensively read the question before writing an answer.I will comprehensively read the question before writing an answer.I will comprehensively read the question before writing an answer.I will comprehensively read the question before writing an answer.I will comprehensively read the question before writing an answer.I will comprehensively read the question before writing an answer.I will comprehensively read the question before writing an answer.I will comprehensively read the question before writing an answer.I will comprehensively read the question before writing an answer.I will comprehensively read the question before writing an answer.I will comprehensively read the question before writing an answer.I will comprehensively read the question before writing an answer.I will comprehensively read the question before writing an answer.I will comprehensively read the question before writing an answer.I will comprehensively read the question before writing an answer.I will comprehensively read the question before writing an answer.I will comprehensively read the question before writing an answer.I will comprehensively read the question before writing an answer.I will comprehensively read the question before writing an answer.I will comprehensively read the question before writing an answer.
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Post by hrizzo on May 5, 2014 12:55:07 GMT
hrizzo 4.8 zaphod 4.3 throttlup 4.2 dontgetoutmuch 4.0 icefisher 3.9
2013 - 3.55
flearider 3.3 neilhamp 3.3 karlox 3.1 kenfeldman 2.7 sigurdur 2.5
2012 - 2.33
birder 2.2
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Post by cuttydyer on May 5, 2014 14:48:53 GMT
If you wish to enter the "competition" please copy these instructions. Add your forecast to the list below (highest forecast at the top) Then repost the list
HRizzo 4.8 zaphod 4.3 throttlup 4.2 dontgetoutmuch 4.0 icefisher 3.9 Cutty Dyer 3.8
(2013 - 3.55)
flearider 3.3 neilhamp 3.3 karlox 3.1 kenfeldman 2.7 sigurdur 2.5
(2012 - 2.33)
birder 2.2
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Post by phydeaux2363 on May 5, 2014 18:49:17 GMT
Sorry. meant to jump in at 4.1
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Post by cuttydyer on May 5, 2014 18:58:06 GMT
If you wish to enter the "competition" please copy these instructions. Add your forecast to the list below (highest forecast at the top) Then repost the list
HRizzo 4.8 zaphod 4.3 throttlup 4.2 phydeaux 4.1 dontgetoutmuch 4.0 icefisher 3.9 Cutty Dyer 3.8
(2013 - 3.55)
flearider 3.3 neilhamp 3.3 karlox 3.1 kenfeldman 2.7 sigurdur 2.5
(2012 - 2.33)
birder 2.2
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Post by neilhamp on May 5, 2014 19:50:36 GMT
Thanks very much cutty You seem to have sorted out the system Between the two of us we should be able to keep everyone on board
Looking at the list I am surprised so many people seem to think the ice extent will continue to increase after last year's dramatic rise. I hope you are all correct. It will certainly give the warmists something to think about.
The AMO has now stopped rising but it will be a few years yet before it starts its downward trend. That's when I expect Artic ice to start to increase.
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Post by sigurdur on May 5, 2014 20:15:41 GMT
Thanks very much cutty You seem to have sorted out the system Between the two of us we should be able to keep everyone on board Looking at the list I am surprised so many people seem to think the ice extent will continue to increase after last year's dramatic rise. I hope you are all correct. It will certainly give the warmists something to think about. The AMO has now stopped rising but it will be a few years yet before it starts its downward trend. That's when I expect Artic ice to start to increase. I agree 100% neil. But like the Titanic, something so large is going to take awhile to actually turn. What I do know, is that just like the peak warming of the late 1930's and 1940's in the Arctic, there is a LOT of heat quickly leaving the earth. The strat up there is so low, the air generally dry, that the door isn't closing.
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Post by neilhamp on May 6, 2014 6:05:44 GMT
The AMO so far this year has been negative for each month Eyeballing historical data, indicates that the real downward trend in AMO will not start until 2025 However, solar activity is very much lower than that experienced since the 1950's After 1917 we will enter an extended solar minimum. Will this affect the AMO and the Arctic sea ice extent? Sooner or later we should see the trend in minimum sea ice extent start to change
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Post by cuttydyer on May 6, 2014 7:32:50 GMT
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Post by icefisher on May 6, 2014 15:22:02 GMT
Anybody know what the average/normal is for the metric we are using?
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Post by kenfeldman on May 6, 2014 17:38:27 GMT
Anybody know what the average/normal is for the metric we are using? The average for this decade (through 2013) is 2.9 million. Here's a chart that breaks it down by decade:
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