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Post by graywolf on Jul 4, 2014 17:37:18 GMT
221,000km drop in C.T. area for today. Don't be fooled by the extent/area losses showing you the 'start' of the sea ice losses gents. You must realise that an awful lot of the Arctic had to go before ice became so thin as to be able to melt out in a single season. Melt has been ongoing since the 1,000yr cooling over the Arctic stopped ( over a hundred years ago) and showed a peak in the 40's before global dimming again slowed down losses ( and allowed for some gains?) before the clean air acts finally began to work and we see this second peak in ice loss. Every study I have so far seen shows massive losses in volume from the first time subs took reliable soundings of the ice thickness in the late 50's. The massive exports of ice , via Fram, are well studied and so the massive loss years through the 80's give some scale as to just how much ice was needed to be lost prior to the late 90's impacts on area/extent. Oddly this day of they year has 14 yrs of double century breaks? maybe its all the hot air from the USA on July 4th............
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 4, 2014 18:55:28 GMT
graywolf: From what I could see with Capt Larsen's logbook, and as you indicated, the actual ice of the Arctic is probably on par with the mid 40's as a whole.
I don't fear the Arctic being ice free in the summer as some do. I just look at it as the natural progression of an interglacial. We are suppose to mimicking MIS-11, if so, the normal peak of warming just before the bottom falls out isn't applicable today. MIS-11 had several temp rises, falls etc. Going from a lot of ice, to less ice, to a lot of ice etc.
If proxy data on that period can be believed.
Not too worried about temperatures either, as interglacials are predominantly warmer than this one. We are close to temps of MIS-11, seem to be running approx. 0.5C warmer, but substantially cooler than the average shorter interglacial. Funny thing about the average interglacials is that the orbital parameters aren't really different, yet they were much warmer.
But back to de ice, I still stand by my prediction for 2014 summer ice time area. I think we are going to get there.
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Post by cuttydyer on Jul 5, 2014 7:43:37 GMT
Shaping up to be another cold Arctic Summer: Link: ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.phpLink: earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-339.45,91.71,1024
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Post by nonentropic on Jul 5, 2014 8:12:34 GMT
Ice levels are very wind driven. The fact that the temperature of the north is very close to zero on average means that a fair portion is below freezing or in fact increasing in area.
Again the wolfs obsession with arctic ice levels as some proxy for warming is one eyed in the light of the Antarctic. I think in round terms neither is a proxy for warming but could well indicate weather styles. A blocking high in the right place can refrigerate a region boil a region and I dare say build ice area and demolish ice areas.
The big picture is the next 5 years and we will very likely know then.
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Post by icefisher on Jul 5, 2014 13:45:16 GMT
Ice levels are very wind driven. The fact that the temperature of the north is very close to zero on average means that a fair portion is below freezing or in fact increasing in area. Again the wolfs obsession with arctic ice levels as some proxy for warming is one eyed in the light of the Antarctic. I think in round terms neither is a proxy for warming but could well indicate weather styles. A blocking high in the right place can refrigerate a region boil a region and I dare say build ice area and demolish ice areas. The big picture is the next 5 years and we will very likely know then. Yes and a hundred years ago when the cooling first stopped Amundsen traversed the Northwest Passage in a small boat. Repeated in 1944 and not again until 2007. Last year a lot of boats supported by satellite views of local ice conditions still got stuck in the passage.
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Post by neilhamp on Jul 8, 2014 11:20:07 GMT
The recent comments at Arctic Sea Ice Blog are interesting neven1.typepad.com/It is a strongly warmist site "Despite weather conditions that were conducive to melting in the past couple of weeks, the 2014 sea ice volume trend line is now clearly above those of all the other post-2010 years, including 2013. The change is as remarkable as it is unexpected (by me), and the obvious reason must be lack of warmth and thus melt ponds over the Central Arctic Basin. Volume at the end of June is more than 2000 km3 behind 2012, and well over 1500 km2 behind 2011."
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Post by cuttydyer on Jul 8, 2014 12:31:16 GMT
The recent comments at Arctic Sea Ice Blog are interesting neven1.typepad.com/It is a strongly warmist site "Despite weather conditions that were conducive to melting in the past couple of weeks, the 2014 sea ice volume trend line is now clearly above those of all the other post-2010 years, including 2013. The change is as remarkable as it is unexpected (by me), and the obvious reason must be lack of warmth and thus melt ponds over the Central Arctic Basin. Volume at the end of June is more than 2000 km3 behind 2012, and well over 1500 km2 behind 2011." Looks like a whole lot of "lack of warmth" to me (sea surface temp anomaly): Link: earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=0.19,89.12,1024 Link: ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 8, 2014 13:21:17 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 8, 2014 13:22:35 GMT
Cutty: It will get warmer in the Arctic in October. All the warm water from Antarctica will flow north and provide that extra heat needed.
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Post by dontgetoutmuch on Jul 8, 2014 13:38:15 GMT
Sigurdur, The link that the article uses to support their statement that the Arctic is melting never mentions the Arctic. It is another article, and it is exclusively about Antarctic melting, which is not happening. The stupid, it burns.
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 8, 2014 14:01:36 GMT
dontgetoutmuch: I caught that as well. Amazing how we made it through the Holocene Climate Optimum isn't it? The Arctic, yes Arctic, was ice free during the summer months for 1,000's of years.
Maybe that is why it got cooler after than warm spell? The methane that got released couldn't overcome the cooling?
This stuff is so funny, that you just can't make it up.
The bad thing is, some folks will actually eat it up with glee as it fits their undereducated thinking.
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 8, 2014 19:45:31 GMT
Barehanded Polar Bear fighting.
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 8, 2014 19:45:41 GMT
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Post by cuttydyer on Jul 15, 2014 5:06:06 GMT
One down... Link: www.adn.com/article/20140713/mariner-trying-sail-northwest-passage-rescued-after-sailboat-gets-stuck-sea-ice& more on this story here: www.vancouversun.com/Nanaimo+sailor+stuck+Arctic+polar+bears+company/10029965/story.htmlExtract: "Gursoy was rescued on Saturday by the U.S. Coast Guard cutter Healy — it was diverted from a National Science Foundation-funded research mission in the Arctic — after his single-mast aluminum boat Altan Girl became trapped in ice northeast of Barrow, the northernmost city in the U.S. Gursoy was attempting to sail solo to Eastern Canada through the Northwest Passage. The Healy eventually reached the sailboat after cutting a 19-kilometre path through the ice, and then led it to open water. A helicopter couldn’t reach him because of weather conditions and low visibility. Gursoy is now waiting in Barrow for better weather and restocking supplies. “There’s a big storm coming in so luckily he got into anchor,” said Renay Gursoy, noting that it took four hours to get the tow line onto Altan Girl. “He was in constant danger, because the ice was packing and moving so far north. It was constant fog and basically all his rigging was iced up. “His boat could have sunk. The winds were going to shift again and the ice would have packed and perforated the hull and that would have been it." ___________________________________ Meanwhile, the Blue Planet Odyssey yacht Adventura is: "Armed and well provisioned, we are ready to leave Nuuk tomorrow, first to explore some highlights of Greenland’s spectacular west coast, and then sail acoss Baffin Bay to Lancaster Sound and the Northwest Passage." Link: www.cornellsailing.com/2014/07/gun-ho-in-nuuk/
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 16, 2014 12:56:24 GMT
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