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Post by dontgetoutmuch on Jul 16, 2014 13:43:01 GMT
Hi Sig,
Yes, about that.
1. While the DMI temperatures continue to trend well below average, I think in the short term at least this metric does not appear to be tightly coupled with Artic melt or lack thereof.
2. The Arctic ice area forecast model Cfsv2 appears to be backing off it's prediction of above average anomalies for August and Sept. It hasn't yet abandoned the idea, but it is looking like another failed model to me.
3. There is definitely something wrong with the last couple of days data with the Antarctic ice area. At least 500,000sq kilometers of ice has been disappeared. I'm talking jack booted data thieves in the middle of the night disappeared! That much ice does not melt in the middle of an Antarctic winter in a week, and I don't think you can really overlook it, I mean, can you see the guy? Yep, California, I just had it right here... No, that ice is still there, it is just not being counted.
I conclude that the only people that this will affect are: 1. Graywolf and people like him desperately searching for proof that they are not crazy, and that those mean deniers are wrong, and we ARE all going to die.
2. The people in their little yacht's who will be sailing into harms way, taking "Climate Scientists" word for it that the planet is overheating.
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 16, 2014 15:26:33 GMT
One thing is certain. There will always be idiots.
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 16, 2014 15:27:12 GMT
I also agree in regards to the model
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Post by neilhamp on Jul 17, 2014 11:50:55 GMT
Plunge seems to have stopped Sigurdur and we are still above 2013 levels The arctic temperatures are still below normal. I predicted a small drop this year I wonder if we are going to see a continued recovery from last year.
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Post by flearider on Jul 17, 2014 15:21:18 GMT
I'm thinking it might come in close to 2011 level .. as long as winds don't pick up and temps stay steady ..
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Post by Ufasuperstorm on Jul 17, 2014 22:03:57 GMT
The long range GFS looks great. There should be a right turn starting in about 1 week.
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Post by Ratty on Jul 18, 2014 2:39:32 GMT
The long range GFS looks great. There should be a right turn starting in about 1 week. Can you elaborate in that for this layman, please?
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Post by throttleup on Jul 20, 2014 23:03:39 GMT
Ratty, I was about to ask the same thing...
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 21, 2014 1:22:14 GMT
Look at the pressure differentials.
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Post by Ratty on Jul 21, 2014 5:44:09 GMT
Look at the pressure differentials. I said I was a layman .... what is the right turn referred to?
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Post by cuttydyer on Jul 21, 2014 8:35:47 GMT
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Post by neilhamp on Jul 21, 2014 9:48:15 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 21, 2014 12:52:35 GMT
Look at the pressure differentials. I said I was a layman .... what is the right turn referred to? The right turn is referring to the sea ice area. The pressure gradients show that little ice will be exported.
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 21, 2014 12:54:57 GMT
That is why I chose area rather than extent. It is actually a bit more accurate in regards to Arctic Sea Ice. Unless sea ice is actually expanding, which would be one heck of a strange event at this time of year, the area should continue declining, but it may slow the decline.
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Post by neilhamp on Jul 21, 2014 13:16:05 GMT
Some of us didn't realize that sigurdur! Your superior knowledge is of advantage to you in the "competition" Are you still confident of your low sea ice area by September? I still think my 3.3 might be about right Even using sea ice area we are still above 2013 as yet.
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