Post by AstroMet on Jul 11, 2014 22:10:45 GMT
The CircumPolar Vortex & Trending To Global Cooling
by Theodore White, astrometeorologist.Sci
Despite the illusion of calls for an El Nino that will not appear, what we have coming in mid-July 2014 is a reminder that global cooling is on the way as we transition to a climate change that will shake the world.
As part of the trending to my climate forecast on global cooling, North America has already experienced one of the worst and brutally cold, snowy and icy winters in recent memory during the winter of 2013-3014.
That was followed by a cold and wet spring, especially for the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions of the United States.
Now, in July 2014, residents in parts of Canada and the United States are being told to expect another shot of cold air that will bring unusually chilly temperatures in the midst of summer.
My astrometeorological calculations show that what is happening is that as the world trends to global cooling the extremes of weather such as the recent Typhoon Neoguri has affected the path of the northern jet stream that has forced it to accelerate across the entire northern hemisphere.
This means that a big amount of moist warm tropical air will push itself over the North Pacific, enough to amplify a low pressure trough over the state of Alaska.
And, in a domino effect on the jet stream - a strong ridge of high pressure helps to further heat up the western U.S. and Canada - while over the Midwestern U.S. a strong upper level low pressure system will bring chilly temperatures in the middle of July.
What will amaze meteorologists and climatologists will be how what is happening in mid-July looks similar to what occurred in January 2014.
That’s when a deep pool of cool air from the Gulf of Alaska plunged into the Great Lakes. This will occur again in mid-July 2014, with the chilly air easing toward the American east coast where summer temperatures are expected to be 10-30 degrees Fahrenheit below average.
Some of the coldest air in mid-July 2014 will affect the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest. Highs in that region may only reach 50s and 60s and it will be cloudy.
The pattern will set some cold records for mid-summer, especially around the Plains and Great Lakes. This is also because water temperatures are still depressed from the recent brutal winter and cold spring that saw ice still around on Lake Superior into the month of June.
Look at map where the similarities in this pattern over North America that was experienced in the month of January 2014 and now in July 2014. All of the same pattern exist (refer to the map at the top of this post) that were existent in January are on to be found on the map in mid-July:
There’s low pressure over the Aleutians (blue shading) a large hot ridge (yellow & red shading) over the western U.S., the huge cold low or vortex over the Great Lakes (blue & green shading), and then the ridge over northeast Canada (yellow & red shading.)
As another example of what I am talking about:
Look at the GFS model representation below for January 6, 2014, in the midst of that winter season polar vortex event and the GFS model representation for what is supposed to be the middle of summer in North America on July 15, 2014:
The GFS models of January 2014's pattern that featured a strong pool of cool air from the Gulf of Alaska is set to direct itself straight into the Great Lakes in mid-July, and then attempt to slide towards the U.S. East Coast.
When this event will be reported in the media next week, there will be meteorologists who will fight over the use of the term ‘polar vortex.’
See this graphic released from the National Weather Service forecast office out of Chicago:
However, it appears that several offices of the National Weather Service offices are also using that exact term - polar vortex - to describe the cool event that is coming.
This is from the NWS office in State College, PA on Friday, July 11, 2014:
“THE HIGHLY ANOMALOUS AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS A VIRTUAL LOCK BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS INDICATED BY ALL MEDIUM RANGE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS.THIS WELL-ADVERTISED HIGH MERIDIONAL EVENT WILL FEATURE A FULL-LATITUDE RIDGE AND SEARING HEAT OUT WEST... NOT TO BE OUTDONE BY THE RETURN OF THE POLAR VORTEX IN THE EAST OVER QUE/ONT AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. CONSIDERING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH 500MB STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES ON THE ORDER OF -3 TO -4SD IN BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL MODELS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS…CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF BELOW AVG TEMPS /DURING WHAT IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY THE HOTTEST TIME OF THE YEAR/ IS VERY HIGH FROM TUE-THU OF NEXT WEEK.”
Here is NOAA'S outlook:
This mass of cold air of the so-called ‘polar vortex’ will result in record low temperatures that will stretch across a wide region the Midwest and upper Great Plains. That includes the states of Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan, and Ohio.
Overnight mid-July summer temperatures will be chilly in the 40s, and daytime temperatures during the day will be in the 70s.
The circular area of the air mass is an upper level system that will be fall south and center itself just north of Lake Superior. Tuesday, July 15 and Wednesday, July 16, appear to be the coldest days for the Midwest where all of the state of Michigan will be 15 to 20 degrees colder than normal.
Here are the temperature anomalies on the mid-July 2014 event from European model:
It appears with this pattern that the weather for the July 15th Major League Baseball All-Star Game in Minneapolis, Minnesota will be cool and cloudy with temperatures in the 60s at game and then falling to 50s during the game.
Highs in the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest region of the United States will be at record lows - 50s and 60s – especially where there is considerable cloud cover.
The East will also get in on the cooler than average conditions, but the change won't be as dramatic as in the north-central U.S.
As the cold air descends on the central and eastern U.S. central U.S the weather and temperatures west of the Rockies will be very hot.
Meanwhile, parts of western Washington will be under an excessive heat watch with four wildfires already burning - the most of any state – with almost 20,000 acres already burned. Temperatures will rise to over 100 degrees Fahrenheit in parts of Washington and Oregon while the state of California remains mired in a multi-year excessive drought.
These patterns are the 'extremes of weather' I have forecasted as we shift between climate regimes – that of solar-forced global warming to solar-forced global cooling.
As an example of what can happen, even during the summer in the northern hemisphere, see how the expected July 16, 2014 Wednesday morning’s lows could easily fall into the 40-degree Fahrenheit range over a large region of the central U.S. And do remember that is is the month of July:
During the trending to global cooling, the most notable feature will be the effect of the jet streams coming from polar vortex activity at both of the Earth’s north and southern poles. We are seeing amazing growth of the sea ice extents at the arctic and Antarctic – which is the certain trending to global cooling ahead of the Sun’s coming hibernation phase as it nears solar cycle #25.
The extremes of warmer-than-normal temperatures and cooler-than-normal temperatures is a trademark signature of climate change. We will continue to witness this in 2014, 2015 and 2016 and 2017.
When global cooling arrives officially, by my Astromet calculations, in mid-December 2017, it will last approximately 36 years and will be a deep ice age event that will alter weather history in the early to mid-21st century.
All of this calls for preparation for global cooling – something that is NOT being done by the great majority of nations and their populations. But the climate change to global cooling will not wait for anyone and make no mistake about it – global cooling is coming.
by Theodore White, astrometeorologist.Sci
Despite the illusion of calls for an El Nino that will not appear, what we have coming in mid-July 2014 is a reminder that global cooling is on the way as we transition to a climate change that will shake the world.
As part of the trending to my climate forecast on global cooling, North America has already experienced one of the worst and brutally cold, snowy and icy winters in recent memory during the winter of 2013-3014.
That was followed by a cold and wet spring, especially for the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions of the United States.
Now, in July 2014, residents in parts of Canada and the United States are being told to expect another shot of cold air that will bring unusually chilly temperatures in the midst of summer.
My astrometeorological calculations show that what is happening is that as the world trends to global cooling the extremes of weather such as the recent Typhoon Neoguri has affected the path of the northern jet stream that has forced it to accelerate across the entire northern hemisphere.
This means that a big amount of moist warm tropical air will push itself over the North Pacific, enough to amplify a low pressure trough over the state of Alaska.
And, in a domino effect on the jet stream - a strong ridge of high pressure helps to further heat up the western U.S. and Canada - while over the Midwestern U.S. a strong upper level low pressure system will bring chilly temperatures in the middle of July.
What will amaze meteorologists and climatologists will be how what is happening in mid-July looks similar to what occurred in January 2014.
That’s when a deep pool of cool air from the Gulf of Alaska plunged into the Great Lakes. This will occur again in mid-July 2014, with the chilly air easing toward the American east coast where summer temperatures are expected to be 10-30 degrees Fahrenheit below average.
Some of the coldest air in mid-July 2014 will affect the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest. Highs in that region may only reach 50s and 60s and it will be cloudy.
The pattern will set some cold records for mid-summer, especially around the Plains and Great Lakes. This is also because water temperatures are still depressed from the recent brutal winter and cold spring that saw ice still around on Lake Superior into the month of June.
Look at map where the similarities in this pattern over North America that was experienced in the month of January 2014 and now in July 2014. All of the same pattern exist (refer to the map at the top of this post) that were existent in January are on to be found on the map in mid-July:
There’s low pressure over the Aleutians (blue shading) a large hot ridge (yellow & red shading) over the western U.S., the huge cold low or vortex over the Great Lakes (blue & green shading), and then the ridge over northeast Canada (yellow & red shading.)
As another example of what I am talking about:
Look at the GFS model representation below for January 6, 2014, in the midst of that winter season polar vortex event and the GFS model representation for what is supposed to be the middle of summer in North America on July 15, 2014:
The GFS models of January 2014's pattern that featured a strong pool of cool air from the Gulf of Alaska is set to direct itself straight into the Great Lakes in mid-July, and then attempt to slide towards the U.S. East Coast.
When this event will be reported in the media next week, there will be meteorologists who will fight over the use of the term ‘polar vortex.’
See this graphic released from the National Weather Service forecast office out of Chicago:
However, it appears that several offices of the National Weather Service offices are also using that exact term - polar vortex - to describe the cool event that is coming.
This is from the NWS office in State College, PA on Friday, July 11, 2014:
“THE HIGHLY ANOMALOUS AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS A VIRTUAL LOCK BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS INDICATED BY ALL MEDIUM RANGE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS.THIS WELL-ADVERTISED HIGH MERIDIONAL EVENT WILL FEATURE A FULL-LATITUDE RIDGE AND SEARING HEAT OUT WEST... NOT TO BE OUTDONE BY THE RETURN OF THE POLAR VORTEX IN THE EAST OVER QUE/ONT AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. CONSIDERING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH 500MB STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES ON THE ORDER OF -3 TO -4SD IN BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL MODELS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS…CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF BELOW AVG TEMPS /DURING WHAT IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY THE HOTTEST TIME OF THE YEAR/ IS VERY HIGH FROM TUE-THU OF NEXT WEEK.”
Here is NOAA'S outlook:
This mass of cold air of the so-called ‘polar vortex’ will result in record low temperatures that will stretch across a wide region the Midwest and upper Great Plains. That includes the states of Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan, and Ohio.
Overnight mid-July summer temperatures will be chilly in the 40s, and daytime temperatures during the day will be in the 70s.
The circular area of the air mass is an upper level system that will be fall south and center itself just north of Lake Superior. Tuesday, July 15 and Wednesday, July 16, appear to be the coldest days for the Midwest where all of the state of Michigan will be 15 to 20 degrees colder than normal.
Here are the temperature anomalies on the mid-July 2014 event from European model:
It appears with this pattern that the weather for the July 15th Major League Baseball All-Star Game in Minneapolis, Minnesota will be cool and cloudy with temperatures in the 60s at game and then falling to 50s during the game.
Highs in the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest region of the United States will be at record lows - 50s and 60s – especially where there is considerable cloud cover.
The East will also get in on the cooler than average conditions, but the change won't be as dramatic as in the north-central U.S.
As the cold air descends on the central and eastern U.S. central U.S the weather and temperatures west of the Rockies will be very hot.
Meanwhile, parts of western Washington will be under an excessive heat watch with four wildfires already burning - the most of any state – with almost 20,000 acres already burned. Temperatures will rise to over 100 degrees Fahrenheit in parts of Washington and Oregon while the state of California remains mired in a multi-year excessive drought.
These patterns are the 'extremes of weather' I have forecasted as we shift between climate regimes – that of solar-forced global warming to solar-forced global cooling.
As an example of what can happen, even during the summer in the northern hemisphere, see how the expected July 16, 2014 Wednesday morning’s lows could easily fall into the 40-degree Fahrenheit range over a large region of the central U.S. And do remember that is is the month of July:
During the trending to global cooling, the most notable feature will be the effect of the jet streams coming from polar vortex activity at both of the Earth’s north and southern poles. We are seeing amazing growth of the sea ice extents at the arctic and Antarctic – which is the certain trending to global cooling ahead of the Sun’s coming hibernation phase as it nears solar cycle #25.
The extremes of warmer-than-normal temperatures and cooler-than-normal temperatures is a trademark signature of climate change. We will continue to witness this in 2014, 2015 and 2016 and 2017.
When global cooling arrives officially, by my Astromet calculations, in mid-December 2017, it will last approximately 36 years and will be a deep ice age event that will alter weather history in the early to mid-21st century.
All of this calls for preparation for global cooling – something that is NOT being done by the great majority of nations and their populations. But the climate change to global cooling will not wait for anyone and make no mistake about it – global cooling is coming.