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Post by sigurdur on Jul 22, 2014 21:35:33 GMT
The oceans gain heat from LW radiation. Any gain as a result of SW is negligible.
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 22, 2014 21:36:33 GMT
Theodore, I should probably clarify my statement. Disruptive non productive growing seasons pose much more of a serious risk to our prosperity than colder winters. We have the ability to prepare for cold winters. We don't have the capacaity to replace lost crops in the summer. I agree Glenn. No doubt cold winters will be tough to deal with but the possible early freezes could be devastating. If colder springs delay planting of crops and then an early freeze hits it could cause major food disruptions. If another one of these "polar vortex's" hit in August or early September this year and cause a widespread freeze it could cause grain prices and food to skyrocket. Case: Don't even think that way!
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 22, 2014 21:37:37 GMT
Theodore, I should probably clarify my statement. Disruptive non productive growing seasons pose much more of a serious risk to our prosperity than colder winters. We have the ability to prepare for cold winters. We don't have the capacaity to replace lost crops in the summer. I agree Glenn. No doubt cold winters will be tough to deal with but the possible early freezes could be devastating. If colder springs delay planting of crops and then an early freeze hits it could cause major food disruptions. If another one of these "polar vortex's" hit in August or early September this year and cause a widespread freeze it could cause grain prices and food to skyrocket. By the way, I have a Case-IH 8940 that puts out 264PTO hp. It is a mean machine!
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Post by glennkoks on Jul 23, 2014 4:01:25 GMT
Since the mid 1300's we have many instances of brutal winters where the Thames or Danube has froze over. Napoleon and Hitler picked particularly brutal winters to try and invade Russia and the Frost Fairs are well documented. But the most devastating years are caused by disruptive growing seasons.
With the current worldwide population a year like 1816 (The year without a summer) would cause untold chaos. We simply don't have the excess capacity to deal with longterm food shortages on a global scale.
The issue will be exponentially compounded by another "Year without a summer" proceeded by a brutal winter.
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Post by case8930 on Jul 23, 2014 18:37:06 GMT
I agree Glenn. No doubt cold winters will be tough to deal with but the possible early freezes could be devastating. If colder springs delay planting of crops and then an early freeze hits it could cause major food disruptions. If another one of these "polar vortex's" hit in August or early September this year and cause a widespread freeze it could cause grain prices and food to skyrocket. By the way, I have a Case-IH 8940 that puts out 264PTO hp. It is a mean machine! Those Magnum's are great tractors. Been running ours for over 15 years. This could really be an interesting August and September. I just hope the frost and freezes stay away until October.
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 23, 2014 19:11:07 GMT
By the way, I have a Case-IH 8940 that puts out 264PTO hp. It is a mean machine! Those Magnum's are great tractors. Been running ours for over 15 years. This could really be an interesting August and September. I just hope the frost and freezes stay away until October. My 8940 only has 12,500 hrs on it. Think it will hit 20,000 before major work will need to be done. Oil samples come back really good. IF, and that is a big if, we have a freeze of any substance in Aug, the whole world would be so screwed. Northern areas are late in the US, and Canada is also late. Offfffta, and how in the hell would I fill my $12.00 soy contracts with no beans? (Which if it froze would be $20.00).
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Post by case8930 on Jul 23, 2014 22:23:15 GMT
That's what really has me concerned about global cooling. I can't imagine having freezes in August or early September. The growing season is barely long enough for many of the northern tier of states and Canada and to then shorten the growing season even more would be devastating. I'd be interested if Theo thinks we'll have an early frost this year.
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Post by AstroMet on Jul 24, 2014 22:35:19 GMT
That's what really has me concerned about global cooling. I can't imagine having freezes in August or early September. The growing season is barely long enough for many of the northern tier of states and Canada and to then shorten the growing season even more would be devastating. I'd be interested if Theo thinks we'll have an early frost this year. That depends where you are located Case. There will be a much earlier frost this year in the Great Plains, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region this fall season. The cooler temperatures, which is a trending to global cooling, as we transition between solar-forced global warming to solar-forced global cooling, can easily be seen in the NOAA graphic for North America - we are going to see more cooler air heading south into the end of July and into August. The NOAA model shows expected temperature anomalies for August, September and October 2014. You can see where the cooler than normal temperatures are while the west coast remains hot and extremely dry. This is how we transition into global cooling from global warming with these kind of extremes that are quite typical of climate transitions. In fact, there is going to be yet another cool shot of air with below-average temperatures that will reach the eastern US and mid-Atlantic next week. Basically, there's another upper level weather pattern featuring a big drop in the jet stream over eastern U.S. with much cooler than normal air at high altitudes. The astronomic transits what we have going on here is a Rex block coming where high pressure and low pressure morph to promote airflow from the Earth's Arctic region down to the eastern U.S. In this particular chilly case, a high pressure center, or ridge, will park itself near the Hudson Bay while low pressure establishes itself near the Great Lakes. It's going to deliver more 'autumn-like' chills in mid-summer. This 'Rex Block' is a sure sign of a reversal of usually normal upper air pattern at this time of year over North America heading into mid-summer. Now, usually the upper air low/trough is on the northern poleward side. The upper air high/ridge is found in the subtropics, but in the region of North America it is a Azores-Bermuda High that usually dominates. With this Rex Block, the upper air high is on the poleward side while the upper-air low is is on the tropical side. Now that is a reversal of a normal pattern. Take a look at what is happening here by July 29, 2014: An Omega Block is essentially a kind of incomplete, or dissipating Rex Block; however, both patterns result in a highly meridional jet stream with extended periods of the same kind of weather. The American GFS, European & Canadian models - all of them are seeing what I've known for a long time about this climate year and that is for a big drop in the jet stream over the central-to-eastern Northern Hemisphere that will depress summer temperatures 10 to 20 degrees below average. This next one extends from the Northern Plains to the American East Coast in the last week of July and into early August. The chilly air will enter the Northern Plains by Sunday, July 27th and will reach the U.S. eastern coast by Tuesday, July 29th - exactly two weeks after the arrival of the most recent temperature cool down. Going into August, for the Plains, Great Lakes, Midwest and into the eastern U.S. (Mid-Atlantic, Northeast and New England states) we will see an extended period of fair and dry - but also unusually cool 'autumn-like' weather - and in some of these regions it will be cooler and wetter as well. Moreover, it looks as if trends for the month August are running cooler than normal as well. I expect this to continue through to September and into October. An early autumn is on tap for sure and it's going to be cooler than usual too. The patterns we are observing taking shape in summer 2014 are the normal during the spring and fall seasons when the jet stream pattern is in transition between winter and summer. But this is summer over North America and this is not supposed to be happening and there is no 'super El Nino' in sight. This is the trending to global cooling that I have been forecasting for years in my long-range Astromet forecasts. We are closer and closer now to the real thing and these weather events - most notably temperature extremes and variations - are doing exactly as I expected too.
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Post by walnut on Jul 24, 2014 23:43:15 GMT
Wow!
I am loving the 'weather', it is actually comfortable... and the trees and plants are green and healthy. Hard to believe. 80's most of the day in Tulsa today. 88 at 6 pm. The temps continue to be 5 degrees below the (low) daily forecasts. Bring on the Pleistocene beasts!
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 25, 2014 1:33:03 GMT
Astro met You are neglecting the most significant modulator on regards to NA. The Greenland High and the Icelandic Low.
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Post by AstroMet on Jul 25, 2014 16:20:51 GMT
Astro met You are neglecting the most significant modulator on regards to NA. The Greenland High and the Icelandic Low. Well, the Greenland high and Icelandic low are effects of astronomic causes Sigurdur. There's plenty of complexity in astronomic forecasting which I will not get into here in detail; however, again, the main thing is that the Sun is heading into a hibernation cycle as it nears solar cycle #25 and that means global cooling for the planet in the final analysis.
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 25, 2014 19:02:29 GMT
Astro met You are neglecting the most significant modulator on regards to NA. The Greenland High and the Icelandic Low. Well, the Greenland high and Icelandic low are effects of astronomic causes Sigurdur. There's plenty of complexity in astronomic forecasting which I will not get into here in detail; however, again, the main thing is that the Sun is heading into a hibernation cycle as it nears solar cycle #25 and that means global cooling for the planet in the final analysis. I understand the significance of the sun. What I wanted you to point out was the variation in UV/EUV that modulates the Greenland High and Icelandic Low which drive NA weather patterns.
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Post by AstroMet on Jul 26, 2014 1:07:40 GMT
Well, the Greenland high and Icelandic low are effects of astronomic causes Sigurdur. There's plenty of complexity in astronomic forecasting which I will not get into here in detail; however, again, the main thing is that the Sun is heading into a hibernation cycle as it nears solar cycle #25 and that means global cooling for the planet in the final analysis. I understand the significance of the sun. What I wanted you to point out was the variation in UV/EUV that modulates the Greenland High and Icelandic Low which drive NA weather patterns. Well, if you say that you understand the significance of the Sun, then you would know that it is the Sun that governs UV/EUV modulations as there are direct correlations between global tropospheric temperature anomalies, EUV radiation and galactic cosmic rays. What I covered recently was the Rex block feature of cooler air from the circumpolar vortex that has been impacting the jet streams and bringing down temperatures over the central and Upper Midwest in mid-summer. However, all the external parameters that impact the Earth's climate, including those of the Greenland High and the Icelandic flow that you brought up, all of them are strongly modulated by the solar cycle as it is the Sun that drives weather and climate patterns. If you remove the Sun then the correlations disappear. For instance, let's take the North Atlantic Oscillation, or NAO for short. Primarily, it's a large scale mode of driven climate variability with a well-known impact on climate and weather - especially during the winter around the North Atlantic. If you look back at decadal time scales and their variability in atmosphere and ocean coupling, then it develops into a kind of see- saw reaction throughout northern and southern Europe. This includes the eastern U.S., northern Canada and Greenland. The NAO index is based on the difference between sea level pressure that's over the subtropical Azores High and the subpolar Iceland Low. So, if we note strong positive pressure gradients across the North Atlantic Ocean then we know that it is a positive NAO that features warm and wet winters, say, in northern Europe, along with cold and dry winters in Greenland and northern Canada. A weaker, or negative NAO indicates that northern Europe will have a cold and dry winter but in Greenland there will be milder temperatures along with moist air that develops over the Mediterranean. The Sun and its condition, along with the modulation of the planets' perturbations relative to Earth are the cause of all weather and climate, especially longer lasting ones of climate on decadal time scales.
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Post by AstroMet on Jul 26, 2014 19:52:15 GMT
Wow! I am loving the 'weather', it is actually comfortable... and the trees and plants are green and healthy. Hard to believe. 80's most of the day in Tulsa today. 88 at 6 pm. The temps continue to be 5 degrees below the (low) daily forecasts. Bring on the Pleistocene beasts! Get used to it, with the exception of next summer, which will be quite hot, after that in 2016, dry and hot, then wet and warm, when December 2017 arrives and global cooling becomes official, we will see more cooler summer seasons, along with colder and stormier winters, cold and wet spring seasons that will make winter feel that much longer, and shorter summers with colder anomalies along with autumn-like temperatures earlier than normal (late June-July-into August).
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Post by glennkoks on Jul 27, 2014 13:21:20 GMT
6-10 Day forecast looks nice for late July/early August. Attachments:
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