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Post by AstroMet on Aug 2, 2014 1:39:24 GMT
Astromet, The million dollar question is when does the pattern change for Europe? It seems to be inversely correlated. A few years ago we were on the warm side of a trough while the Danube was frozen over. Last year East of the Rockies was "frozen" while Europe was relatively mild (if not stormy). The really frightening scenario is both sides of the pond having cold winters with disruptive shortened growing seasons. Do you see this happening after 2017 as you have forecasted? Or does the topsy turvy weather caused by a meridional jet continue? From what I have read the period around 1330 AD was much like what we are experiencing today. Extremes, or extremely cold winters, hot summers, disruptive wet growing seasons changing from year to year. Most likely caused by a more equatorial jet. Europe's pattern change Glenn, from what I've calculated, begins in 2015, but the atmospherics will be deceiving. The general climate trend will be warmer-than-normal conditions next year in the northern hemisphere, along with drier climate and lack of normal precipitation (various states of drought.) Then, from what I see astronomically, it turns dry and warm early in 2016, then dry and wet later in 2016, then turns abruptly colder in 2017 when global cooling becomes the official climate regime in December of that year. However, the trending and anomalous cool conditions will continue as we are still be in-between climate transitions, so the extremes of weather and temperature especially, is a sure mark of that. The threat is the jet stream, which again, is due to the radical shifting of the circumpolar vortex from its east/west patterns to more north/southern patterns. It's a real danger as we experienced during the winter of 2013-2014 in the northern hemisphere. That's the big change going on here and it will become more protracted the closer we get to the official start of global cooling in mid-December 2017. The disruptions on weather from global cooling are quite stark indeed, but the extremes of cold winters and hot summers are more common to the transition period between solar-forced global warming and solar-forced global cooling. Once a climate regime kicks in officially, we see the resultant weather tied to the particular climate regime. In the case of global cooling, the weather conditions are far worse than global warming could ever be. It's going to be a real mess for those unprepared for global cooling. As you know, I've been warning about global cooling for years and we are closer to it now as it has been trending more obviously now for people to see with the cooler temperatures in mid-summer in regions of the United States for instance.
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 3, 2014 20:32:57 GMT
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Post by glennkoks on Aug 4, 2014 2:17:40 GMT
I thought this was an interesting post coming from a fishing forum I frequent. It seems "weird weather" is becoming more noticeable and frequent. You have to click on it to enlarge the comment. Perhaps our local Alaska resident can comment? Attachments:
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Post by glennkoks on Aug 4, 2014 3:29:05 GMT
To summarize "weirdness" Lightning storms in Alaska, Geese flying south at least a month early two polar vortex fronts in july and now this: Attachments:
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Post by walnut on Aug 4, 2014 3:45:41 GMT
It has been very weird in Oklahoma. I wouldn't quite call it a year without a summer, but definitely weird and very cool.
A couple more strange facts: virtually no tomatoes this year. And a hibiscus in my back yard turning yellow due to cold stress.
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Post by glennkoks on Aug 6, 2014 1:50:07 GMT
I realize that Southeast Texas does not necessarily indicate a trend globally but it's a little eye opening. ( Click on them to enlarge) Attachments:
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Post by AstroMet on Aug 7, 2014 22:04:25 GMT
It has been very weird in Oklahoma. I wouldn't quite call it a year without a summer, but definitely weird and very cool. A couple more strange facts: virtually no tomatoes this year. And a hibiscus in my back yard turning yellow due to cold stress. Really not that strange Walnut, it's just that we are observing the trending to global cooling in a transitional global climate that then results in these weather changes at various regions. See ->> www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/08/04/death-valley-was-cooler-than-missoula-mont-on-sunday/Although climate science has been set back at least a generation with all the idiocy of 'man-made global warming' that means that those who have been indoctrinated in what is literally impossible to occur on Earth (anthropogenic global warming) will be in no position to forecast. And that's a shame too, because global cooling is right around the corner and there's nothing that anyone will, or can do to stop it either. Anyhow, this recent cooler-than-normal snp in July and early August shows how the trending to global cooling continues - even during summer at the mid-latitudes of the northern hemisphere.
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Post by case8930 on Aug 8, 2014 1:25:06 GMT
Looked at the GFS model out to August 18th and its showing possible frost/freeze for Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin. Granted that's a longs ways out and we know how accurate forecasts are that far out but makes one wonder. Frost needs to hold off at least another 6 weeks for much of the Midwest crops.
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Post by sigurdur on Aug 8, 2014 1:29:34 GMT
If there is a frost/freeze on the 18th of Aug, there won't be buckets big enough to hold all the tears.
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Post by case8930 on Aug 8, 2014 1:34:15 GMT
If there is a frost/freeze on the 18th of Aug, there won't be buckets big enough to hold all the tears. You've got that right. Just afraid that whenever the next polar vortex comes this month or next it will be bringing freezing temperatures with it.
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Post by sigurdur on Aug 8, 2014 2:05:16 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 8, 2014 14:40:51 GMT
Some of that reminds me of a forecaster I know who was badly caught out with a forecast, and from then on every one of his forecasts had every single possible weather mentioned just in case.
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Post by AstroMet on Aug 9, 2014 20:18:13 GMT
Some of that reminds me of a forecaster I know who was badly caught out with a forecast, and from then on every one of his forecasts had every single possible weather mentioned just in case. I agree Nautonnier. What you and everyone else will see are that those so-called 'forecasters' will continue to go on about 'man-made global warming' until the very end - even to the point of saying that 'global warming' is causing 'global cooling,' which is preposterous. Yet, the trending to my forecast for global cooling continues - unabated and confirmed by real world observations of the behavior of the transitional climate and weather. For instance, in New England, one person said that, "In the middle of the summer here in Rhode Island its been in the mid-50's over the past week at night reaching highs in the 70's during the day with a breeze. June was no scorcher here either. I'm not sure where they measured record temps in June but it wasn't in the Northeast." Now, the below-average temperatures in the Great Plains, Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, Northeast and New England is not a surprise to me as I have been forecasting the continued trending to global cooling. This is the result of decreased Solar activity, which I have forecasted will be the cause of the new climate regime we are heading toward - global cooling.
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 9, 2014 20:27:13 GMT
Well people here have mentioned seeing skeins of geese going south already. What I have noticed in my peripatetic meanderings is that trees seem to be moving to an autumnal tinge already. The normal vivid greens seem to be browning off I can see this in Florida and in the North East around DC. Has anyone else noticed this or is it just me?
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Post by AstroMet on Aug 11, 2014 0:49:23 GMT
Well people here have mentioned seeing skeins of geese going south already. What I have noticed in my peripatetic meanderings is that trees seem to be moving to an autumnal tinge already. The normal vivid greens seem to be browning off I can see this in Florida and in the North East around DC. Has anyone else noticed this or is it just me? The signs of an early autumn are also evident in the Mid-Atlantic where it has been cooler-than-normal Nautonnier. This extends for about two-thirds of the lower 48 states, however, there are also indications of an early autumn in Europe as well. The winter, in my upcoming Astromet Forecast will be earlier-than-normal winter as well, but it will not be as brutal as it was in 2013-2014 and will proceed relatively quickly, leading to an early spring in 2015. I will have more in my climate seasonal forecast. As for fall temperatures for the central through eastern U.S., I expect cooler than normal temperatures, a cold wind that will make early autumn feel more like mid-autumn, and so on to the early winter season.
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