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Post by magellan on Oct 18, 2014 4:13:03 GMT
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Post by douglavers on Oct 18, 2014 12:01:00 GMT
baering.github.io/Magnitude 5.4 earthquake at a depth of 100 meters two hours ago, at Bardurbunga.
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Post by cuttydyer on Oct 19, 2014 6:36:00 GMT
Bloomberg reports: “The snow in Siberia is piling up, and if it keeps coming, people in New York may have to bundle up this winter,” There’s a theory that the amount of snow covering Eurasia in October is an indication of how much icy air will sweep down from the Arctic in December and January, pouring over parts of North America, Europe and East Asia. Last year, the snow level across Eurasia was the fourth highest for the month in records going back to 1967. In January, frigid temperatures dubbed “the polar vortex” slid out of the Arctic to freeze large portions of the U.S. With the snow now piling up across Eurasia, will this winter be a grim reminder of last year’s? Bloomberg link: www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-14/new-york-gets-frigid-winter-warning-from-siberia-snowfall.htmlMultisensor snow/ice cover maps link: satepsanone.nesdis.noaa.gov/northern_hemisphere_multisensor.html
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Post by glennkoks on Oct 20, 2014 14:21:10 GMT
If it follows a pattern similar to the last few years it will be fridged in places and very mild in others. All courtesy of a more meandering jet stream pattern. A few years back the Danube froze over and Rome was dusted with rare snow. At the same time the U.S. did not have a winter. Last year was brutal for most of the U.S. and mild over much of Europe.
It will be interesting to see if the cold in Eurasia equates to a cold winter for most of the NH.
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Post by nonentropic on Oct 20, 2014 17:36:45 GMT
Is this pattern of warm and cold different? My suspicion is that in the past we didn't have the internet there to troll for crisis after crisis. The polar vortex is very visible on 14 day weather sites but is it a change or just a very interesting newly visible phenomena.
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Post by douglavers on Oct 20, 2014 21:27:30 GMT
baering.github.io/I think this is what the area below a volcano looks like just before it goes KABOOM! Also note the astonishing rate of fall of the 70 sq km caldera [about 50 cms per day]. As per this morning. If [when] the volcano erupts, it will have a significant cooling impact. It is a very large system. I note that the UK power authorities have warned that power supplies are already "critical" for this winter, mostly because of EEC directives to shut down "polluting" power plants. Eurasian snow cover is already about 12m sq kms, about 20% ahead of last year. I think AGW proponents have a problem.
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Post by sigurdur on Oct 21, 2014 1:22:54 GMT
Power supplies are already critical??? Have the Brits lost all thinking skills?
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Post by glennkoks on Oct 21, 2014 5:12:26 GMT
Is this pattern of warm and cold different? My suspicion is that in the past we didn't have the internet there to troll for crisis after crisis. The polar vortex is very visible on 14 day weather sites but is it a change or just a very interesting newly visible phenomena. Is this pattern of warm and cold different? I don't think so. We have seen it before. The transition from the MWP to the LIA was marked in Europe by wild fluctuations from year to year. This was probably caused by a meandering equatorial jet stream. These well documented wild fluctuations eventually gave way to the LIA and a predominately cold pattern. The cold gave way to the modern warm period and so forth. The pattern repeated between warm and cold for millennia and will not doubt continue long after we quit dumping CO2 into the atmosphere. Milankovitch Cycles, other celestial events, vulcanism, all the above? Who really knows but I think it is a little arrogant to think the things that have always driven our climate will be trumped by CO2.
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Post by shaggy on Oct 21, 2014 5:14:18 GMT
Power supplies this year are affected by eu directives to close down old coal fired power stations and to favour 'green' energy.
The previous govt did nothing to prepare for the long term supply of electricity. No new nuclear power....just lots of wind farms that are really useful in the middle of winter, with a high pressure over the uk, no wind and its freezing cold!
Recently we have had nuclear plants shut due to faults in the boilers. They are starting back up now but only at 80% capacity for safety reasons. Now we have had a gas fired plant catch fire so that is now offline, at least partially. So with bad planning we had reserves of about 3% which will of dropped further due to the faults and fires.....seriously thinking of buying a generator as a backup.
The eu is rather bonkers in its thoughts. They set down rules to reduce co2 emissions as these are, supposedly, killing the planet. With this the govt made it cheaper to drive a diesel car as these give out lower co2 emissions. Now they have found that diesel gives out other nasty stuff that can affect child development.
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Post by nautonnier on Oct 21, 2014 9:28:08 GMT
Power supplies are already critical??? Have the Brits lost all thinking skills? No, but they have been conned by a series of 'green' issues where politicians tried to outgreen each other. It is all explained in the first part of this article from the UK Daily Telegraph: "The Most Expensive Man and Woman in Britain's History"The current minister at the Department of Energy and Climate Change is Ed Davey, who is convinced that windmills can replace base load power stations, is driving the enforcement of the Climate Change Act; immediately imposes every directive coming out of the European Union; and, is closing base load coal and oil fired generation plant at a rate that has left UK with only a wafer thin margin for events like the recent one at Didcot Gas fired plant where some of the cooling systems burned down. There is only one UK political party that is not in the greener than you game, and that is the UK Independence Party that started on a single issue of UK leaving the European Union, but seems to have evolved into a party with some reasonable ideas. They do not believe the AGW mantra. They have gone from a minority group with no MPs to now polling 25% of the vote (with Labour and Conservatives ~30%). Seems they have become a refuge for the more thoughtful voters from the other main parties.
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Post by nautonnier on Oct 21, 2014 9:46:54 GMT
Is this pattern of warm and cold different? My suspicion is that in the past we didn't have the internet there to troll for crisis after crisis. The polar vortex is very visible on 14 day weather sites but is it a change or just a very interesting newly visible phenomena. The pattern is different within 'living memory' but as Glenkoks says it probably explains the weather that was reported in centuries past as the world moved into the Little Ice Age from the Medieval Warm Period. If you look at Current Jet Streams you can see how meandering they are. With this view imagine that the heating for the Earth is at its maximum at the equator, like putting a pan of water over a small burner, you would with the burner turned up see the water upwelling over the burner and running to the edges of the pan, if you turn the burner down the upwelling hot water reduces and does not reach the edge of the pan. The upwelling of heat for the Earth is over the equator where the Hadley Cells bubble up as huge convective weather systems in the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone. It would appear that if the Sun weakens these convective cells reduce in strength and the jet streams which mark the boundary with polar air move equatorward and start meandering in huge Rossby Waves. (Rossby waves form where fast moving fluid runs into slower moving fluid.) There are also arguments that the reduction in magnetic field strength of the Sun/Earth system will have a similar and reinforcing effect. If the Sun starts to get quieter still, as it must as we are now past what counted for Solar Maximum for Cycle 24, then expect the jet streams to go even further equatorward and more headlines about 'the polar vortex'. And as Harold Ambler puts it: "Don't sell your coat"
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Post by mkelter on Oct 21, 2014 20:07:17 GMT
SPEAKING OF COLD WINTERS Ya think it's going to get cold this winter in UK? At least not until they put out the fires at Ditcot B. Kinda reminds me of Gaza a couple of months ago. Once the fires are out it's apt to be cold since Ditcot B accounts for about 3% of UK's generation capacity. www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-29684205Also, a bunch of the Nuke Fleet is down for maintenance.
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Post by acidohm on Oct 28, 2014 21:50:43 GMT
So far, so very warm here in UK...still wearing t - shirt everyday (I work outdoors!)
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Post by douglavers on Oct 30, 2014 21:25:38 GMT
The [relatively] warm weather in Western Europe will continue while the jet streams are directing a steady flow of large depressions over the UK. There is no sign at the moment of this trend stopping.
In South-Eastern Europe and Turkey, serious snow-storms have been reported, and Asian snow cover is well above normal.
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Post by douglavers on Nov 5, 2014 6:46:07 GMT
baering.github.io/This little gem of a site is quite geologically fascinating. On the RHS, there is a chart showing the time, depth and magnitude of Bardurbunga earthquakes. This includes a large number in the “unverified” category. I assume that local bad weather makes them hard to check, but a least a portion of them have to be real. Many of them, including some which are quite sizeable, are only just below the surface, bearing in mind that there is 300 metres of ice in the caldera. Separately, there is a graph showing the daily fall in the caldera, currently about 40 cms [say 2 feet for those using primitive imperial units] every day. The caldera size is about 70 sq kms. The cap over the magma chamber must be getting more and more stretched, or something else quite strange is happening. Incidentally, I don’t think the fissure eruption North-East of the caldera is directly connected. The lava from the latter already covers 65 sq kms. I have given up on trying to predict when the system is going to go KABOOM!, but this still seems the most likely outcome. It should send a chill down European spines.
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