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Post by sigurdur on Nov 1, 2014 19:19:35 GMT
Theo, First thanks for taking the time to post and second thanks for your reply. I wasn't aware the data was only back to 1979 (good to know) so that only makes it roughly 30 years? Wow. I'm aware of data manipulation and cherry picking, I've posted incidents of that happening, and I would have to judge myself of doing the same if I used that graph as proof of anything. Thank you. Code: Actually, the satellite data goes back to 1973 if memory serves me. But most folks want to start at 1979 because that was the last apex in Arctic Sea Ice area etc. The 1st IPCC report included the total satellite record, later reports have chopped of the earlier years.
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Post by sigurdur on Nov 1, 2014 19:29:21 GMT
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Post by AstroMet on Nov 1, 2014 22:33:49 GMT
Astromet: Do you foresee the 2015 summer being as hot and dry as the 2012 summer was in the Midwest? I hope it will just be brief heatwaves and not exceptionally dry. 2015 will be a warmer and drier year than 2012 will be Case, that's my forecast. It will be so for the Midwest, West and the East of North America as well, a warmer year overall. The west will remain exceptionally and dangerously drier next year.
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Post by case8930 on Nov 2, 2014 1:59:17 GMT
Astromet: Do you foresee the 2015 summer being as hot and dry as the 2012 summer was in the Midwest? I hope it will just be brief heatwaves and not exceptionally dry. 2015 will be a warmer and drier year than 2012 will be Case, that's my forecast. It will be so for the Midwest, West and the East of North America as well, a warmer year overall. The west will remain exceptionally and dangerously drier next year. Thanks Astromet. I will definitely not be looking forward to the summer of 2015 then. 2012 was miserable for me and for many of my friends and relatives across the Midwest due to the drought as many wells and rivers went dry and crops dried up. It will not be an enjoyable summer.
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Post by AstroMet on Nov 2, 2014 2:22:37 GMT
2015 will be a warmer and drier year than 2012 will be Case, that's my forecast. It will be so for the Midwest, West and the East of North America as well, a warmer year overall. The west will remain exceptionally and dangerously drier next year. Thanks Astromet. I will definitely not be looking forward to the summer of 2015 then. 2012 was miserable for me and for many of my friends and relatives across the Midwest due to the drought as many wells and rivers went dry and crops dried up. It will not be an enjoyable summer. I should know, as I was the one who forecasted that drought, which continues in California to this day. As we are in the midst of a climate transition between solar-forced global warming to solar-forced global cooling, all that anyone can do is to forecast and make preparations for what is to come because humanity has no other power than in forecasting and preparing for climate changes.
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Post by nautonnier on Nov 2, 2014 15:36:28 GMT
A post from Dr Norman Page on WUWT is interesting In the post above he has put forward using Be 10 as a proxy for solar activity and looks at its variance against climate changes (it is worth a read). Leif comes in as usual and rubbishes a solar / climate connection and the use of Be 10 and gets the referenced response from Norman Page. Theo will be interested in Norman's last sentence though: a confirmatory coincidence of dates.
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Post by AstroMet on Nov 2, 2014 23:03:09 GMT
A post from Dr Norman Page on WUWT is interesting In the post above he has put forward using Be 10 as a proxy for solar activity and looks at its variance against climate changes (it is worth a read). Leif comes in as usual and rubbishes a solar / climate connection and the use of Be 10 and gets the referenced response from Norman Page. Theo will be interested in Norman's last sentence though: a confirmatory coincidence of dates. Thanks Nautonnier, And I agree with Dr. Page. As for planetary modulation of the Sun by the forcing by Jupiter, Saturn etc., that I have been writing and talking about for years, we see this from K. G. McCracken, J. Beer, and F. Steinhilber" 'Evidence for Planetary Forcing of the Cosmic Ray Intensity and Solar Activity Throughout the Past 9400 Years'
"Paleo-cosmic-ray (PCR) records based on cosmogenic 10Be and 14C data are used to study the variations in cosmic-ray intensity and solar activity over the past 9400 years.
There are four strong correlations with the motion of the Jovian planets; the probability of occurring by chance being <?10?5.
They are i) the PCR periodicities at 87, 350, 510, and 710 years, which closely approximate integer multiples of half the Uranus–Neptune synodic period; ii) eight periodicities in the torques calculated to be exerted by the planets on an asymmetric tachocline that approximate the periods observed in the PCR.
The maxima of the long-term PCR variations are coincident with syzygy (alignment) of the four Jovian planets in 5272 and 644 BP; and iv) in the time domain, the PCR intensity decreases during the first 60 years of the ??172 year Jose cycle (Jose, Astron. J. 70, 193, 1965) and increases in the remaining ??112 years in association with barycentric anomalies in the distance between the Sun and the center of mass of the solar system.
Furthermore, sunspot and neutron-monitor data show that three anomalous sunspot cycles (4th, 7th, and 20th) and the long sunspot minimum of 2006 – 2009 CE coincided with the first and second barycentric anomalies of the 58th and 59th Jose cycles. Phase lags between the planetary and heliospheric effects are ??five years.
The 20 largest Grand Minima during the past 9400 years coincided with the latter half of the Jose cycle in which they occurred. These correlations are not of terrestrial origin, nor are they due to the planets’ contributing directly to the cosmic-ray modulation process in the heliosphere.
Low cosmic-ray intensity (higher solar activity) occurred when Uranus and Neptune were in superior conjunction (mutual cancellation), while high intensities occurred when Uranus–Neptune were in inferior conjunction (additive effects). Many of the prominent peaks in the PCR Fourier spectrum can be explained in terms of the Jose cycle, and the occurrence of barycentric anomalies."By the time most people, including the majority of conventional climate scientists, come to understand that our climate and resultant weather is forced from space, we will be well within the new climate regime of global cooling. This is my prime concern, that there has been little to no preparation for global cooling, and that is the most important thing to remember when it comes to applying climate forecasts. It's a shame that for the last 25+ years all that valuable time has been wasted on the fallacy and lie of 'man-made global warming,' while simultaneously arguments on the 'causes' of climate change continues while no preparation for global cooling has been made. This is going to be the cause of great suffering in the 2020s, 2030s and 2040s.
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Post by AstroMet on Nov 6, 2014 19:34:11 GMT
Theo, First thanks for taking the time to post and second thanks for your reply. I wasn't aware the data was only back to 1979 (good to know) so that only makes it roughly 30 years? Wow. I'm aware of data manipulation and cherry picking, I've posted incidents of that happening, and I would have to judge myself of doing the same if I used that graph as proof of anything. Thank you. You're welcome Code. The thing is about that data is that many are using it but don't realize that it only goes back to 1979 for the start year and yet many still attempt to forecast from it.
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Post by nautonnier on Nov 7, 2014 12:01:38 GMT
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Post by AstroMet on Nov 8, 2014 23:22:44 GMT
Yes, that's true Nautonnier.
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Post by AstroMet on Nov 11, 2014 23:40:23 GMT
A post from Dr Norman Page on WUWT is interesting In the post above he has put forward using Be 10 as a proxy for solar activity and looks at its variance against climate changes (it is worth a read). Leif comes in as usual and rubbishes a solar / climate connection and the use of Be 10 and gets the referenced response from Norman Page. Theo will be interested in Norman's last sentence though: a confirmatory coincidence of dates. At this juncture Nautonnier, as we are much closer to 2017, the fact of the matter is that it is already too late for nations and large cities to prepare for global cooling. Too much time has been wasted on the lie of man-made global cooling. There are far too many nit-picking and nickel-and-diming, looking for fame while preparation for global cooling is nowhere in sight, even by many individuals. I've been preparing for a long time and am ready, but those who are not prepared are going to be in for a real series of climate/weather shocks from late 2017 onward into the next three decades. When people will look back on the 'climate change' hysteria, they will be further shocked at how so many were duped into major complacency by believing the lies of how 'warm-is-bad' and how a trace gas as carbon dioxide was used to pull off a major fraud over the nations of the planets. Global cooling is certainly on its way, I have confirmed multiple times and there is no getting away from what is about to happen to the Earth's climate as the Sun enters it Grand Minimum.
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Post by AstroMet on Nov 13, 2014 22:37:08 GMT
That 'warm' blob, which is the high pressure ridge that's been sitting just off the US west coast for well over a year and a alf is still there. At this time, for California's 150 reservoirs the current water levels are sitting at 57 percent of average. That means that for the water levels to greatly improve, California would need to see about 110 percent of its average annual precipitation - this year. I do not see that happening. In fact, the multi-year drought will continue through 2015 and into 2016, making an already very serious drought that much worse. The relief, as far as I am concerned, will not arrive until late 2016, and even then, much of the soil is so dry and cracked that flooding and mudslides will make major news in 2016. There is more relief in parts of solar year 2017, and especially by 2018, but then, going into 2019, the drought will continue to persist in many regions of the state.
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Post by AstroMet on Nov 15, 2014 21:29:25 GMT
We will see the polar vortex this winter, but it will be a short winter due to the earlier than normal spring I've forecasted for 2015, which will be a very warm climate year.
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Post by AstroMet on Nov 21, 2014 2:19:36 GMT
2015 will be a warmer and drier year than 2012 will be Case, that's my forecast. It will be so for the Midwest, West and the East of North America as well, a warmer year overall. The west will remain exceptionally and dangerously drier next year. Thanks Astromet. I will definitely not be looking forward to the summer of 2015 then. 2012 was miserable for me and for many of my friends and relatives across the Midwest due to the drought as many wells and rivers went dry and crops dried up. It will not be an enjoyable summer. I forecasted that this winter will be early, colder than average and with heavy snows, but that the winter season will also leave early and lead into an earlier-than-normal spring with a warmer-than-average solar year of 2015. It will be a hot one into next year after this winter season completes itself in the northern hemisphere.
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Post by AstroMet on Nov 25, 2014 0:10:15 GMT
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