|
Post by farmerted on Nov 25, 2014 14:22:33 GMT
Hello Astromet. First time poster here. Maybe you have discussed this before but you said cities and government have failed to prepare for the global cooling. Since they haven't done these preparations what can an individual do to save himself for the future? Haven't been around very long so apologize if this subject has been covered before.
|
|
|
Post by glennkoks on Nov 26, 2014 2:05:46 GMT
Hello Astromet. First time poster here. Maybe you have discussed this before but you said cities and government have failed to prepare for the global cooling. Since they haven't done these preparations what can an individual do to save himself for the future? Haven't been around very long so apologize if this subject has been covered before. Farmerted, Where do you live?
|
|
|
Post by juancarnuba on Nov 26, 2014 17:24:19 GMT
Farmerted,
Build some greenhouses.
|
|
|
Post by nautonnier on Nov 26, 2014 21:18:39 GMT
Farmerted, Build some greenhouses. about 500 miles closer to the equator than your current farm.
|
|
|
Post by farmerted on Nov 28, 2014 4:03:01 GMT
From Minnesota. Farmer Ted is what I go by at least I used to back when I was single. Now it is just a fond memory. Merry Thanksgiving by the way!!! I know that's not right but it was 10 below this with snow on the ground this morning so just sounds right. Moving is just not in the cards right now... But I was always partial to Cancun myself. Good to meet u all.
|
|
|
Post by AstroMet on Nov 29, 2014 0:15:56 GMT
Hello Astromet. First time poster here. Maybe you have discussed this before but you said cities and government have failed to prepare for the global cooling. Since they haven't done these preparations what can an individual do to save himself for the future? Haven't been around very long so apologize if this subject has been covered before. Much depends on where you are located Farmerted, however, all the farms at mid-latitudes will be seriously impacted by global cooling. Individuals therefore must begin to make immediate plans to face the Sun's Grand Minimum, which will usher in global cooling, officially, in late 2017. I have written about what to do before, but generally, the first thing will be know your location at mid-latitude crop growing regions will be seriously impacted by the climate change to global cooling and that means things are going to change significantly. From that point, many farmers will have to ask themselves is the cost worth it, and then to relocate to more southern regions where crops can still be grown, but even there, global cooling will have serious impacts.
|
|
|
Post by nonentropic on Nov 29, 2014 3:48:10 GMT
A more realist approach which does not involve shifting is consider the possible outcome of a significant drop in temperatures. Astro may be able to help with this, we know that over the last 100years the growing regions have moved can Astro give us an estimate of the drop in temperature. From that we can determine the new crops for a particular region and prepare for that event with research. Lets face it virtually every farming region in the world is adjacent to warmer and colder zones north and south, if we know the number of Kms shift we can drive and have a look, and the good news for growers is the prices will likely rise supporting optimism that this may just one of those cases of same as same as just different folk doing it.
|
|
|
Post by farmerted on Nov 29, 2014 13:45:15 GMT
Thanks for the reply. I was wondering also what will temps do in 2017? What will "normal" be? Last winter was tough will that be a normal winter and what will be a normal seasonal temp from what would be considered average? 1, 5 or 10 degrees below normal? So shorter growing seasons will I still be able to grow corn?
So would this be similar to the Little Ice age in the 1600's? Sorry for all the questions just a lot of them bouncing around in my head right now.
|
|
|
Post by AstroMet on Nov 30, 2014 5:39:01 GMT
Thanks for the reply. I was wondering also what will temps do in 2017? What will "normal" be? Last winter was tough will that be a normal winter and what will be a normal seasonal temp from what would be considered average? 1, 5 or 10 degrees below normal? So shorter growing seasons will I still be able to grow corn?
So would this be similar to the Little Ice age in the 1600's? Sorry for all the questions just a lot of them bouncing around in my head right now. In my previous climate forecast on worldwide global cooling, I have the temperatures decline as much as between 3.5 to 4.5 Celsius by the mid-2030s. It gets that cold. Corn will be difficult to grow the colder it gets and the longer it takes ground temperatures to rise coming out of cold winter and spring seasons. It will be hard for all crops in fact. Also, there will be increased cloudiness, and less sunlight, along with shorter summer seasons. And yes, this will be a new neo-boreal age for us, a mini-ice age that will be a powerful reminder of how wonderful Interglacial Periods are as well as global warming.
|
|
|
Post by nonentropic on Nov 30, 2014 9:25:23 GMT
In that case you will have to visit comparable areas with an airplane.
Astro that is a serious projected drop and should your prediction be correct then many issues will be apparent.
Mexico could well be a perfect sunbelt option. The cloudiness Astro is caused by what phenomena?
|
|
|
Post by flearider on Nov 30, 2014 10:18:19 GMT
if the sun drops that much .. my guess is cosmic rays coming from outside the solar system .. few papers on it last yr
|
|
|
Post by nautonnier on Nov 30, 2014 13:38:34 GMT
It is really a case of taking the 'grow line' for various crops and moving it equatorwards until the temperature in the cold period matches the temperature for the current 'grow line'. How far equatorward will you need to go to get a 4C increase in average temperatures? I would say at least 500 possibly 700 miles.
Now look at the amount of arable land in the new belt and compare that to the amount currently available. It is immediately apparent that there is nowhere near enough land to grow sufficient crops for the world population. Europe is totally out of land. If Theo is right, and there are lots of similar forecasts now being made, there could be food riots by 2025 that is only 10 years away. That is nowhere near enough time to get new cold tolerant varieties of crop plants set up and in farms in land that currently is desert such as the Sahara, Negev and the Mojave. The next 2 decades could be extremely uncomfortable. Theo is right that nobody is really prepared.
|
|
|
Post by nonentropic on Nov 30, 2014 19:09:25 GMT
I think Matt Ridley calculated that 5% of globe is under cultivation.
The issue in my mind is do the population want to live in say Europe if its 3 or 4C colder and can tractors drive 1000miles to their new zone of cultivation.
The Med in myveiw would be much improved with a drop in temperature and north Africa may become a region of massive farm production. Australia would be a "friendly" region of massive food production. Different folk different places as they say but still all going fine and the kicker with CAGW put to rest the ridiculous waste of investment capital thrown at "green energy" will be directed at real issues.
A silver lining!
|
|
|
Post by walnut on Nov 30, 2014 19:51:13 GMT
I can't imagine that it is even 5%. Maybe in the US 5%. As I travel around, most places are either unsuitable and never used, or marginal or fallow. Some areas are more or less grazed or used for hay and can be counted some.
|
|
|
Post by farmerted on Nov 30, 2014 20:02:21 GMT
Nonentropic you may be right about the N Africa and Australia also would suggest South America or even the southern plains if they could get more rain with the global cooling. But the bigger problem may be infrastructure in all these areas. They won't be set up to be large scale producers of crops like corn (much more bushels to handle than wheat or sorghum). Also if it does happen as fast as Astromet says I agree we won't be ready you can't just flip a switch.
|
|