The Myths and Realities of El Niño

[scpg02]

The Myths and Realities of El Niño
by Jan Null, CCM
update Oct 17, 2014

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) continues their El Niño Watch for the possible return of El Niño later this fall and winter. Along with this forecast there have already been considerable misconceptions and misinformation about what the upcoming winter may hold. So what really is El Niño, and what does it really mean for the United States and other parts of the world? Below are some talking points to hopefully debunk some of these myths and to put this weather phenomenon into perspective.

~snip~

ggweather.com/enso/enso_myths.htm

[scpg02]

Weird weather patterns could result in near-normal rainfall year

By John Lindsey

Special to The TribuneAugust 9, 2014

Since the start of the drought, a large-scale high-pressure ridge has dominated our weather at a longitude that almost never fluctuated far from the western edge of North America.

Except for a few months – for example, February 2014 – this condition hasn’t allowed the normal wintertime storm systems to progress southward into California.

Another area of high pressure about 3,700 miles away as the crow flies has also contributed.

The drought pattern across California is related to a strong and persistent area of high pressure in the upper atmosphere near Greenland. The “Greenland Block” is a blocking high-pressure ridge that has forced the polar jet stream south over the Midwest and East Coast and away form California.

~snip~

www.sanluisobispo.com/2014/08/09/3188620/john-lindsey-weather.html

[scpg02]

2015 Long-Range Weather Forecast for San Jose, California

Free 2-Month Weather Forecast

DECEMBER 2014: temperature 55° (3° above avg. north, 0.5° below south); precipitation 2" (1" above avg. north, 1" below south); Dec 1-9: Rain, then sunny; mild north, cool south; Dec 10-12: Rainy north, sunny south; mild; Dec 13-19: Rainy periods, mild; Dec 20-31: Sunny, cool.

JANUARY 2015: temperature 56° (4° above avg. north, avg. south); precipitation 4" (3" above avg. north, 1.5" below south); Jan 1-4: Rainy; mild north, cool south; Jan 5-6: Showers, mild; Jan 7-9: Rain, heavy north; mild; Jan 10-11: Sunny; Jan 12-17: Rainy, mild north; sprinkles, seasonable south; Jan 18-24: Showers north, sunny south; seasonable; Jan 25-31: Sunny; mild north, cool south.


Annual Weather Summary: November 2014 to October 2015

Winter will be warmer than normal, with the coldest periods in late December and early to mid- and late February. Rainfall will be above normal in the north and below in the south. Mountain snows will be below normal, with the snowiest periods in early to mid-January and mid- to late February.

April and May will be drier than normal, with temperatures near normal in the north and below in the south.

Summer will be cooler than normal, with near-normal rainfall. The hottest periods will be in mid- and late June in the central valley; in mid- to late June, early August, and mid-September near the northern coast; and in late June, early August, and mid- to late September near the southern coast.

September and October will bring near-normal temperatures, with rainfall above normal in the north and below in the south.

www.almanac.com/weather/longrange/CA/San%20Jose