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Post by AstroMet on Jan 4, 2015 0:41:23 GMT
Well its beginning to look as though our flirtation with negative naturals ( and their AGW component) it drawing to a close with some agencies now concerning themselves with leach out of accrued heat from the warmed oceans ( on top of the unhindered AGW influence and positive natural forcings). All in all the Meto has been pretty conservative in their prediction esp. if we are to see the worlds oceans acting like a giant Nino Plume until the excess heat from the past decade or so has been expelled from them? Throw in a Nino and a low ice summer and folk will be wondering who told them that global warming was a myth...... see this for the next decade and folk will be wondering why they ever listened to folk incapable of seeing what 97% of science was warning them of...... Total fantasy Graywolf, and yes, man-made global warming is a myth; as it cannot exist according to the laws of physics that govern the Earth's climate system. As I said last year, there would be no 'super El Nino,' no matter how much anyone wanted to make that happen - it did not happen, as I forecasted. It is very difficult to define a single global average temperature for any solar year, as multiple regions will experience variations of temperature according to location; However, what is happening at the poles and the equator shows that global cooling is on the way and has been trending for over a decade now as global warming has ceased more or less. The warm solar year of 2015 will be caused by the Sun reaching its maximum of solar cycle #24, and that will make 2015 and part of 2016 warmer than normal for much of the world. However, the trending to global cooling will continue as it becomes official by mid-December 2017 and the world will then be in a new climate regime. Say goodbye to solar-forced global warming and enjoy the last two years of it from 2015 as global cooling sets in according to the reduced output of our Sun.
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Post by magellan on Jan 4, 2015 17:40:27 GMT
Rather than describe the second link as an "alternative take", a more apt description may be "deceptive take". The guy is a lying deceiving slime ball not unlike Joe Romm, Tamino and the rest of their ilk. There is no "take", there is only truth.
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Post by graywolf on Jan 4, 2015 17:54:44 GMT
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Post by cuttydyer on Jan 4, 2015 18:00:07 GMT
Your chums are going to have to get very creative if / when it does...
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Post by graywolf on Jan 4, 2015 18:16:19 GMT
Your chums are going to have to get very creative if / when it does... Your chums already demand sea ice to follow the prediction of the lone scientist who suggested 2016 ( plus or minus 3 years) as the first ice free arctic date so this return to augmented warming fits in nicely with this notion ( earliest it could return is 2017 and that lone punt gives 2019 as the upper limit of the prediction?). 2015 is already being pushed as another record warm global year ( seeing as plenty of NW Europe have already declared 2014 as a record warm year) even in my local rag today ( Halifax courier)..... How many years of back to back record warm years do you need to see and how far above 1c ,since the industrial rev., do you need temps to reach before accepting the planet is in trouble???
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 4, 2015 18:16:50 GMT
Eating some great chili my lovely made for dinner. I opened the link you posted, expecting to read something I hadn't read before. No such luck. Maybe living in an area that has substantial climate variation, I have a hard time getting excited about a degree or even two degrees. Also, having read as much as I can find in regards to past interglacials, I have a hard time getting excited about glacier melt etc. That is what happens during interglacials. Sea levels will continue to rise, in fact, another 15-20 meters is not out of question. Does CO2 play a part in all of this? Probable. Does CO2 play a major role in this? Not very likely. That conclusion is based on past climate proxy data from previous interglacials. Is the resolution of previous studies good enough to rule out 1-3C variations in a century? No, it is not. Too many unknowns to get very excited is all I can surmise from my limited knowledge.
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 4, 2015 18:18:31 GMT
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Post by graywolf on Jan 4, 2015 19:05:37 GMT
sadly it me that made the chili for my lovely I'm about to sit down to eat? Yes some areas, the arctic/antarctic peninsula will see massive change where other places will see little in the way of temp rises? It is what the prone areas disproportionate change will mean to mankind that is the issue here/
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Post by cuttydyer on Jan 4, 2015 19:55:23 GMT
Your chums are going to have to get very creative if / when it does... How many years of back to back record warm years do you need to see and how far above 1c ,since the industrial rev., do you need temps to reach before accepting the planet is in trouble??? The industrial revolution occurred during the tail end of the Little Ice Age: So after the LIA, exactly what should global temps do??? Let's see how much trouble the planet's in: RSS Global Land Temp anomaly is a tad above zero: RSS Lower Trop. Global Mean is a whopping 0.256°C above (ties with 2007 as only the sixth warmest year since 1979): And the Arctic... Currently at 11.5(million sq. km) - now well above the IPCC 1973 - 1990 mean: above graph from the IPCC 1990 report (page 224) : www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/far/wg_I/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdfNow global sea ice:
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 4, 2015 19:56:44 GMT
sadly it me that made the chili for my lovely I'm about to sit down to eat? Yes some areas, the arctic/antarctic peninsula will see massive change where other places will see little in the way of temp rises? It is what the prone areas disproportionate change will mean to mankind that is the issue here/ Graywolf: But.............we already know that some areas are going to see radical change. It is a repeat performance of past events and there isn't a dog gone thing mankind can do about this. Do we contribute to the change? Most likely. Can we halt the change? Nope, not a chance of a snowball in a hot spot. Have we presently observed radical change? Nope. Even during this period, the Holocene, the Arctic has been ice free in the summer. The WP of Antarctica is slower to develop, but during every interglacial that sucker has melted away. In fact, most of Greenlands ice sheets have melted away. That is why there is such a small area that ice cores can go back 120,000 years. And no further because there was NO ice to core. No one can still explain the virtually identical temp rise of the early 20th Century as experienced in the latter 20th Century. How one can surmise that the later 20th century is purely CO2 induced, when just a few decades previous the same thing happened is beyond me, and I should think beyond anyone who thinks scientifically, and rationally at the same time. It is now well established that both the LIA and the MWP were world wide events. Much to the dismay of some folks. Which I don't get, why complain when proxy data firmly establishes past reality? It is as it is, not some dream world. I live in an area that has excellent proxy bases. I can tell you with 100% certainty that ND was 2.0-2.5C warmer during the MWP than the present average temperatures. That will be a high bar to exceed, even WITH the help of CO2. Will it happen? Who knows? But the thing is.......it happened. And NO one can tell me WHY it happened. Ideas?
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Post by graywolf on Jan 5, 2015 9:03:24 GMT
The original 'Halifax' Code, West Yorkshire, UK.
Should Jen Francis prove correct ,and Arctic Amplification be a major forcing behind the errant Jet over recent years then the Calder Valley ( Hebden Bridge esp.) has already taken a pounding at the hands of AGW....... no volcanoes needed!
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Post by flearider on Jan 5, 2015 12:19:43 GMT
the uk has some of the best weather not to cold not to hot .. no massive swings .. but if it snow's or does get to hot we complain/get scared because we are not rdy for such a thing ... wanna see massive swings move to alberta Canada .. wow bake in the summer frezze in the winter but what a great place to live ..
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Post by Ratty on Jan 5, 2015 13:04:18 GMT
The original 'Halifax' Code, West Yorkshire, UK. [ Snip ] Are you having your last tango, GW?
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 5, 2015 13:09:40 GMT
The original 'Halifax' Code, West Yorkshire, UK. Should Jen Francis prove correct ,and Arctic Amplification be a major forcing behind the errant Jet over recent years then the Calder Valley ( Hebden Bridge esp.) has already taken a pounding at the hands of AGW....... no volcanoes needed! A long way to go before Francis is proven correct.
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Post by icefisher on Jan 5, 2015 16:36:14 GMT
Been watching a series on WWII and it is mentioned in the series that all the war years saw especially severe winters. Those severe winters were matched to record average global temperatures of the early 1940's, and low ice conditions that enabled the dual passage of Henry Larsen through the northwest passage, actually going through the main channel unimpeded in 1944.
Seems to give more credence to current conditions and Astromet's 72 year cycle, and the prediction of a strong cooling occurring in 2017 to match the strong cooling that began at the end of WWII in 1945, exactly 72 years before 2017.
Despite the very strong and severe winters of the war, the peak average global temperature of the mid 20th century warming occurred in 1944, which required adjustments in the 1990's to bring down below the record temperatures of that decade. I tend to lean toward the opinion that those adjustments may have been largely justified but base that opinion on the solar grand maximum that produced the 3 largest solar cycles in the observation record between the 1950's and 1990's. However, I might take that with a grain of salt as our own Dr. Svaalgard seems to believe those high cycles might have been mostly due to inconsistent counting of sunspots. Maybe the answer is somewhere in between.
At any rate with Astromet predicting warm years for 2015 and at least part of 2016 it seems we have at least a couple more years of listening to the CAGW people go on and on.
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