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Post by graywolf on Jan 1, 2015 14:06:51 GMT
Talk of the atmosphere now cooperating with La Nina development? Will 2015 provide us with a Nino or has it's chance now past?
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Post by nautonnier on Jan 1, 2015 15:32:10 GMT
That all depends who you wish to believe NCEP are going for bust (you can cheer them on) and the SINTEX model is there too. The rest seem to be looking at a drop. The current easterly winds in the Pacific are certainly not turning westerly Faites vos jeux mes amis Although, you can keep betting on black until it eventually comes up but I think Theo has it right.
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 1, 2015 19:07:30 GMT
Talk of the atmosphere now cooperating with La Nina development? Will 2015 provide us with a Nino or has it's chance now past? Graywolf: Where have you read or heard talk of the atmosphere cooperating with a La Nina event?
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 3, 2015 18:25:01 GMT
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Post by douglavers on Jan 3, 2015 19:01:22 GMT
We are now enjoying pretty healthy rainfall in the North and East of Australia, but not unfortunately in Victoria and SA.
This is a quite normal Summer pattern. I think we had a weak El Nino a few months back, which is now fading away.
Also, there have been huge floods in India and parts of SE Asia. Again, not really El Nino weather.
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 3, 2015 19:51:00 GMT
We are now enjoying pretty healthy rainfall in the North and East of Australia, but not unfortunately in Victoria and SA. This is a quite normal Summer pattern. I think we had a weak El Nino a few months back, which is now fading away. Also, there have been huge floods in India and parts of SE Asia. Again, not really El Nino weather. Maybe what you are experiencing Doug is where Graywolf read that we are exhibiting La Nina conditions?
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Post by Ufasuperstorm on Jan 3, 2015 23:20:49 GMT
Sigurdur, this is very old news. Here is the link from their monthly update on December 10th. ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/outlook.html The Japan Meterological Agency has different criterion for an El Niño VS. BOM and NOAA. One of their criterion is to calculate the monthly SST anomalies averaged for the area 4°N to 4°S and 150°W to 90°W. There will be no official El Niño according to NOAA's definition.
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ant42
Level 3 Rank
Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 129
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Post by ant42 on Jan 4, 2015 7:53:12 GMT
And Bang! How bout those apples? The shift is on, been saying it for months. Been a very warm and humid 3 months, nothing like last year. MJO has been nowhere near us but now its hovering around the maritime continent, and here we go. BOM forecasted a dry hot scorching summer but the humidity has been putrid here, a good sign of whats coming. La nina looking more likely, and if not then the next one will be massive.
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Post by nautonnier on Jan 4, 2015 18:40:26 GMT
La nina looking more likely, and if not then the next one will be massive. That sounds very much like Theo's forecast. But you may have to wait a few more years then - hold onto your hat. Or has Harold Ambler says ' Don't sell your coat'.
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Post by Ratty on Jan 6, 2015 12:59:30 GMT
Washington state is sure behaving like it's an El Nino year. Parts of our coast have seen 13 inches of rain in the last 24 hours. Tully, in far North Queensland has this record ..... ignore the UFOs:
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Post by nonentropic on Jan 6, 2015 18:08:19 GMT
Mt Taranaki gets 8.5Metres of rain falls off 500mm per night don't make the paper.
Just Saying.
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Post by Ratty on Jan 6, 2015 22:54:40 GMT
Mt Taranaki gets 8.5Metres of rain falls off 500mm per night don't make the paper. Just Saying. Spoiler.
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Post by Ufasuperstorm on Jan 9, 2015 2:31:25 GMT
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Post by douglavers on Jan 9, 2015 20:55:44 GMT
Its now raining!!!!
"The Todd River has started flowing in Alice Springs for the first time since April 2014 after heavy rain drenched central Australia.
The river, which is usually a dry, sandy river bed, started flowing after parts of the catchment recorded more than 100 millimetres of rain in 24 hours.
At Alice Springs airport, 56.6 millimetres was recorded in the 24 hours to 9am (ACST) on Thursday. A further 15mm had been recorded by 4pm."
From the ABC News.
Meanwhile, Adelaide has gone from heat and horrible wildfires to expected flash flooding.
I saw nice pictures of a flash flood in Bendigo [Victoria] last night.
It is expected to rain for the next four days in Victoria - most unusual for Summer.
After having my air conditioning on almost continuously last week, the heating is now on.
But I don't have to water the garden!!
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Post by graywolf on Jan 14, 2015 16:09:09 GMT
December PDO value comes in at a whopping 2.51! With the 'warm horse shoe' still in place it looks like the PDO will stay positive a while longer ( if it has not fully flipped positive and is still in a neg phase overall?) and this must increase, or keep stable, the chances of the double dip Nino event? With tropical disturbances helping enhance WWB's it looks like we might well be in for a re-run of last Jan with a mighty KW pushing out by late month/early Feb? This time I do not think the June/July Trades will squish things but that by then atmosphere will be in full cooperation?
Should this prove true just how much of that 'warm pool' do we expect to flow back east?
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