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Post by Ratty on Jul 10, 2015 7:27:50 GMT
In meteorology, precipitation is any product of the condensation of atmospheric water vapour that falls under gravity.[1] The main forms of precipitation include drizzle, rain,sleet, snow, graupel and hail. Precipitation occurs when a portion of the atmosphere becomes saturated with water vapour, so that the water condenses and "precipitates". Thus,fog and mist are not precipitation but suspensions because the water vapour does not condense sufficiently to precipitate. Thanks Acidohm ...... that should precipitate a robust discussion.
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Post by graywolf on Jul 10, 2015 8:45:14 GMT
Once again 90% chance of another El Nino winter"SEATTLE – There's a 90 percent chance El Nino will continue through this coming winter and an 80 percent chance it will extend to early spring 2016, the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center reported Thursday. That means the likelihood of warmer than normal temperatures for the Pacific Northwest, according to KING 5 Meteorologist Rich Marriott. It also means less precipitation but not necessarily less rainfall." www.king5.com/story/news/local/2015/07/09/el-nino-winter-prediction/29917603/OK. What am I missing here?? "Less precip but not less rain". link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-015-1434-yMaybe this is what you're not accepting Sigs? The science has been banging on about this risk for decades and it appears they were right as the data shows.
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Post by Ratty on Jul 10, 2015 12:52:10 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 10, 2015 14:52:25 GMT
OK. What am I missing here?? "Less precip but not less rain". link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-015-1434-yMaybe this is what you're not accepting Sigs? The science has been banging on about this risk for decades and it appears they were right as the data shows. Graywolf: I have no problem with the concept. The study is a bit short on methodology tho. Also the idea that the current warming epoc is caused by humans is not correct. A small part of the warming is caused by humans. In North America, there has not been a statistical rise in events. World wide, I don't believe one can say yes or no. The data is so noisy.
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Post by acidohm on Jul 10, 2015 15:29:43 GMT
In meteorology, precipitation is any product of the condensation of atmospheric water vapour that falls under gravity.[1] The main forms of precipitation include drizzle, rain,sleet, snow, graupel and hail. Precipitation occurs when a portion of the atmosphere becomes saturated with water vapour, so that the water condenses and "precipitates". Thus,fog and mist are not precipitation but suspensions because the water vapour does not condense sufficiently to precipitate. Thanks Acidohm ...... that should precipitate a robust discussion. Sorry Ratty. ..
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Post by icefisher on Jul 10, 2015 16:29:48 GMT
Graywolf: I have no problem with the concept. The study is a bit short on methodology tho. Also the idea that the current warming epoc is caused by humans is not correct. A small part of the warming is caused by humans. In North America, there has not been a statistical rise in events. World wide, I don't believe one can say yes or no. The data is so noisy. Its based on a "stationary time series" compared to 1981-2010. Basically what the unmolested data says is climate has fluctuated over the past 150 years on a cycle of about 70 years with changes in direction of climate occurring roughly every 30 some odd years. So its really trash science in the presence of such an obvious oscillation to assume that oscillation does not exist, turn the the comparison period into a longterm trend and then compare it to a recent 30 year period hasn't also been detrended in the same way that the comparison period was. Total garbage science! One cannot say that strong enough! The problem is not relying on professionals for such work. Professionals have certifications that you can take away from people for producing such work.
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 10, 2015 19:23:45 GMT
Yep, short on methodology.
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Post by graywolf on Jul 10, 2015 19:35:25 GMT
Well latest models still showing 1,5c anom by April....... with all that heat the past decade placed in the upper ocean I wonder if we see another mammoth KW come Feb next year? No signs of the blob letting up yet either........ anyone want to call PDO+ve?
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 11, 2015 0:20:46 GMT
Well latest models still showing 1,5c anom by April....... with all that heat the past decade placed in the upper ocean I wonder if we see another mammoth KW come Feb next year? No signs of the blob letting up yet either........ anyone want to call PDO+ve? Possible Graywolf.
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Post by graywolf on Jul 11, 2015 10:52:59 GMT
The 3 Typhoons have given us a huge wind burst and currently we are seeing record temps across a region straddling the equatorial Pacific. To see this so early makes me wonder just how big this event will become by its traditional 'Christmas' max out?
Some commentators are thinking it could become the strongest event since the records for oceans began being kept back in 1870......
For those who believed " No Nino" until after 2020....... how wrong were you?
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Post by douglavers on Jul 11, 2015 12:13:05 GMT
The Indian Monsoon this year seems to be pretty normal.
It generally fails in El Nino years.
SE and Eastern Australia are receiving a great deal of rain; normally El Nino years are [horribly] dry.
Graywolf, you may well prove to be right about a big upcoming El Nino, but right now in India and Australia, the weather is not following the script.
I have this nasty feeling that something absolutely fundamental has changed in our weather, and we are in cold and uncharted waters.
A very cold North Atlantic, and slow Summer melting in Greenland, Hudsons Bay, and the Arctic generally might be supporting evidence.
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Post by Ratty on Jul 11, 2015 12:31:23 GMT
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Post by acidohm on Jul 11, 2015 13:09:36 GMT
The 3 Typhoons have given us a huge wind burst and currently we are seeing record temps across a region straddling the equatorial Pacific. To see this so early makes me wonder just how big this event will become by its traditional 'Christmas' max out? Some commentators are thinking it could become the strongest event since the records for oceans began being kept back in 1870...... For those who believed " No Nino" until after 2020....... how wrong were you? Not saying your wrong Graywolf, but like Sigurdur often points out, only half the conditions exist as yet....so, bit early to call it/get all excited....
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Post by phydeaux2363 on Jul 11, 2015 13:20:33 GMT
The 3 Typhoons have given us a huge wind burst and currently we are seeing record temps across a region straddling the equatorial Pacific. To see this so early makes me wonder just how big this event will become by its traditional 'Christmas' max out? Some commentators are thinking it could become the strongest event since the records for oceans began being kept back in 1870...... For those who believed " No Nino" until after 2020....... how wrong were you? Wow. This sort of arrogance from the guy who has more failed predictions on this board than anyone. Stunning.
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 11, 2015 14:10:03 GMT
The 3 Typhoons have given us a huge wind burst and currently we are seeing record temps across a region straddling the equatorial Pacific. To see this so early makes me wonder just how big this event will become by its traditional 'Christmas' max out? Some commentators are thinking it could become the strongest event since the records for oceans began being kept back in 1870...... For those who believed " No Nino" until after 2020....... how wrong were you? Not saying your wrong Graywolf, but like Sigurdur often points out, only half the conditions exist as yet....so, bit early to call it/get all excited.... Graywolf thinks the PDO relies on no El Nino type of events. The PDO is still in negative phase. There are El Nino events even during negative phase. Did a little digging last night and roughly observed that El Nino during negative provide different hookups than during positive phase. I will freely admit I was looking at this potential El Nino through positive phase eyes. Will take more digging, but very possible the atmospheric performance is what one should expect for this potential El Nino. Bad thing is, hard to find a lot as Enso events were not recognized till recently.
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