|
Post by graywolf on Oct 27, 2015 12:42:37 GMT
"A strong El Niño in the Pacific and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole are dominating the climate of countries that border the Pacific and Indian oceans. In the central tropical Pacific Ocean, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) continue to warm, but at a markedly slower pace than earlier this year. All NINO indices have now been above +1 °C for 11 consecutive weeks, equalling the previous record. Recent bursts of westerly winds in the tropics means some further warming remains possible. All models indicate that the strong El Niño is likely to persist until the end of the year, before a marked decline during the first quarter of 2016." www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/When I read upthread it's as though folk are talking about last years efforts and not the ( soon to be) strongest Nino ever recorded???
|
|
|
Post by acidohm on Oct 27, 2015 12:45:59 GMT
We're all just plain skeptical here Graywolf....you should know that by now!!! :-)
|
|
|
Post by sigurdur on Oct 27, 2015 15:14:01 GMT
"A strong El Niño in the Pacific and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole are dominating the climate of countries that border the Pacific and Indian oceans. In the central tropical Pacific Ocean, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) continue to warm, but at a markedly slower pace than earlier this year. All NINO indices have now been above +1 °C for 11 consecutive weeks, equalling the previous record. Recent bursts of westerly winds in the tropics means some further warming remains possible. All models indicate that the strong El Niño is likely to persist until the end of the year, before a marked decline during the first quarter of 2016." www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/When I read upthread it's as though folk are talking about last years efforts and not the ( soon to be) strongest Nino ever recorded??? One can only hope your "strongest Nino ever recorded" comes to pass. But looks like that isn't going to happen. Not enough heat left to charge the sucker up. Sooooo.....back to being cold. It sucks.
|
|
|
Post by acidohm on Oct 29, 2015 6:10:55 GMT
It appears that the Pacific North West 'blob' event is cooling as is the water off California. The Plume is most strong at its western end but generally has increased in size. It is however a very different shape the the '97 El Nino which was rooted firmly to the Americas. What i think can be seen in the early stages are the Kelvin waves shifting warm water from east to west, however, to date there has always been a tendency for warmth that gathers in the east to still be pushed back west by the trade winds. These remain in their usual state except from an area just to the north of the western end of the plume where westerly bursts have been present. Perhaps this accounts for the gathering of warmer water in this area.
|
|
|
Post by douglavers on Oct 30, 2015 23:33:07 GMT
|
|
|
Post by sigurdur on Oct 31, 2015 4:04:13 GMT
Its bucketing with rain in SE Australia, including Melbourne. This is not typical El Nino weatrher. View AttachmentThe wheat market dived today because of this.
|
|
|
Post by sigurdur on Oct 31, 2015 4:07:56 GMT
As I have been saying, this El Nino has not hooked up with the atmosphere.
|
|
|
Post by sigurdur on Oct 31, 2015 14:02:10 GMT
Keep your edges sharp code.
|
|
|
Post by missouriboy on Oct 31, 2015 19:33:11 GMT
El Nino at play in the deserts of Peru!
My wife's sister sent me this video on the blooming of the Atacama this year. They say it is the largest such bloom since 1997. Heavy March rains this year. It's in Spanish ... but the video is nice. es.noticias.yahoo.com/video/bell%C3%ADsimo-florecimiento-del-desierto-atacama-113110857.htmlI saw something similar once in the desert surrounding Bullhead City, AZ. In 1990 after heavy winter rains the desert came to life ... flowers everywhere ... and each flower seemed to have its own large caterpillar.
|
|
|
Post by nautonnier on Nov 3, 2015 18:10:43 GMT
There does not seem to be any coupling of westerly trade winds with this 'El Nino' like set of anomalies. In fact over the last week or so the winds have strengthened from the East. Despite the blissful excitement of the NOAA/NASA watchers, does anyone see this El Nino lasting into next month?
|
|
|
Post by acidohm on Nov 3, 2015 18:37:41 GMT
Nope!
|
|
|
Post by sigurdur on Nov 3, 2015 23:21:20 GMT
There does not seem to be any coupling of westerly trade winds with this 'El Nino' like set of anomalies. In fact over the last week or so the winds have strengthened from the East. Despite the blissful excitement of the NOAA/NASA watchers, does anyone see this El Nino lasting into next month? I give it 2 more months, with this in mind. IF.....a BIG IF, it couples with the atmosphere, then it will last till next July.
|
|
|
Post by graywolf on Nov 4, 2015 8:46:01 GMT
3.4 is now in 'super' territories...... funny how you guys are not really seeing what is going on? What will you make of two ,back to back record warm years? I guess you'll be too focused on Nina and its temps to really notice ( until you use it as the start of the new 'pause' in warming hereafter ....)
|
|
|
Post by acidohm on Nov 4, 2015 10:13:11 GMT
But only because all the water is heading West. ...1+2 is falling quite a bit
The ssta are one part of el nino....The effect got its name before people knew about ssta
I don't think it's wise to look at one patch of the Pacific and make sweeping statements. ...also, what you really need is high worldwide temps under normal conditions, otherwise your just getting excited about natural variation
|
|
|
Post by flearider on Nov 4, 2015 11:55:58 GMT
looks like the west coast usa is going cold .. over next few days snow snow and more snow ..wrap up warm guys
|
|