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Post by sigurdur on Jan 22, 2015 1:34:38 GMT
Interesting times we live in climatologically speaking. Well if the forecasts of cold are right - I would not want to be one of the Sligo/Schmidt school of warmists insisting that the various governments prepare for high temperatures and cut down on cheap energy for heating. I rather fancy that Gavin's recent statement about the pause is the beginning of what could become a desperate CYA action.[/font][/font] If I were Gavin I would be do some self reflecting and be wondering: 1.) What caused the pause 2.) Why did I miss it 3.) What is the current phase of the AMO and how has it effected our climate in the past. And if I were Gavin I would pay real, real close attention to number 3.) before I started forecasting things like warming in 10 years. If it follows its normal cycle just exactly when is that due to turn negative? And what does that typically do to temps in the NH? [/quote] Glenn: A word of advice from a Northerner. Don't sell your coat just yet.
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Post by scpg02 on Jan 22, 2015 6:12:20 GMT
Interesting times we live in climatologically speaking.Well if the forecasts of cold are right - I would not want to be one of the Sligo/Schmidt school of warmists insisting that the various governments prepare for high temperatures and cut down on cheap energy for heating. I rather fancy that Gavin's recent statement about the pause is the beginning of what could become a desperate CYA action.If I were Gavin I would be do some self reflecting and be wondering: 1.) What caused the pause 2.) Why did I miss it 3.) What is the current phase of the AMO and how has it effected our climate in the past. And if I were Gavin I would pay real, real close attention to number 3.) before I started forecasting things like warming in 10 years. If it follows its normal cycle just exactly when is that due to turn negative? And what does that typically do to temps in the NH? Having been on a forum with Gavin, I can tell you he is a self righteous ass. He couldn't possibly be wrong.
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Post by Ratty on Jan 22, 2015 22:48:15 GMT
[ Snip ] Having been on a forum with Gavin, I can tell you he is a self righteous ass. He couldn't possibly be wrong. Gavin may be related to our go-to guy on all things climate ( Tim Flannery):
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 1, 2015 18:55:09 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 2, 2015 4:55:44 GMT
Hasn't Astro said as much with regard to the Sun driving the climate? Yes he has.
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Post by icefisher on Feb 2, 2015 5:28:44 GMT
Hasn't Astro said as much with regard to the Sun driving the climate? Astromet has said no el nino until after the next solar minimum around 2020. These scientists are proposing a solar/orbital mechanism. would have to ask astromet if its similar to his analysis
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Post by graywolf on Feb 20, 2015 12:47:44 GMT
Whilst warning of the poor forecasting you get over this time of year BOM are going for Pacific warming after May?
With PDO still strongly positive I'd say the 'naturals' are now edging toward Nino? Should we see the trades stay in normal ranges then come June/July we could be seeing folk edging ( again) toward forecasting nino conditions.
It now appears more than just a 'forecasting' exercise as the next nino may well cement the majority of natural forcings into positive formats?
With low Sea ice over the Arctic Basin and China ongoing with its clean air acts can we expect the upcoming period of warm drivers to exceded warming rates seen in the 80's/90's ( full sea ice cover but western clean air acts biting).
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 20, 2015 18:04:01 GMT
Whilst warning of the poor forecasting you get over this time of year BOM are going for Pacific warming after May? With PDO still strongly positive I'd say the 'naturals' are now edging toward Nino? Should we see the trades stay in normal ranges then come June/July we could be seeing folk edging ( again) toward forecasting nino conditions. It now appears more than just a 'forecasting' exercise as the next nino may well cement the majority of natural forcings into positive formats? With low Sea ice over the Arctic Basin and China ongoing with its clean air acts can we expect the upcoming period of warm drivers to exceded warming rates seen in the 80's/90's ( full sea ice cover but western clean air acts biting). Who knows Graywolf. A stuck clock is correct twice a day. Year after year of forecasting an El Nino event will eventually produce that event, as they do happen. It would be like me forecasting that North Dakota will hit -30F in the winter. Not every winter this happens, but it most certainly happens. So, if I miss this winter, I know that the law of averages is working in my favor. I look at any forecast of an El Nino with a Mt Everest pile of salt anymore. Too many failed predictions, so reliability is about zero anymore. But, like the clock, at some point that prediction will bear fruit. The law of probabilities is now working in your favor, regarding this elusive El Nino. They are getting so rare that they are like Jackalopes in North Dakota. www.chuckstoyland.com/potpourri/jackalope%20postcards/Jackalope%20Seated%20PC/1%20Jackalope%20Seated%20PC%201.jpg
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Post by nonentropic on Feb 20, 2015 19:03:18 GMT
Code did it have wings and make good bacon!
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 20, 2015 19:07:13 GMT
Code did it have wings and make good bacon! Thanks, that made my day!!
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Post by graywolf on Feb 21, 2015 14:38:00 GMT
Odd that we agree on the subject Siggy! We might be comin' at it from totally different directions but we agree that one will come ( at some point) and recently forecasts have been very broken indeed!
I still feel that recent history ( the anomalously high trade wind years) has built in a large Nino by piling that warm pool so high in the west? Now that we see signs of the strong trades easing off we surely must see some of that warm pool slosh back east ( modoki event) under gravity.
Should mother N. be ready to throw a nino ( atmospheric cooperation ) then there will be a huge Nino as all the warm pool is utilised through its duration. either way we get another warm year globally as near nino conditions persist?
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Post by Ufasuperstorm on Feb 21, 2015 16:29:16 GMT
There has been a significant rise in the 30 Day SOI over the last week. In 3 days time we will have the first positive SOI since June 2014. (Cyclone Lam has continued to move towards Darwin) The Walker Cell is still very much firmly entrenched in addition to us now entering a positive SOI regime. The developing Kelvin wave looks to pack very little punch with no atmospheric reinforcement. Translation: We are entering a period of continued ENSO neutral conditions. Graywolf is right on cue as usual. Perhaps the 'Graywolf Effect' will soon start to rival the 'Gore Effect' In addition the uncorrected CFSv2 ENSO region 3.4 forecast has finally come back down to earth. (Last weekly averaged SST anomalies were +.5 Celsius and +.4 Celsius respectively by NOAA and BOM) It still initializes too warm.
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 24, 2015 0:18:14 GMT
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Post by graywolf on Feb 27, 2015 11:25:06 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 27, 2015 14:41:29 GMT
On this one, I don't know Graywolf. What I do know is that, according to modeled forecasts, we were suppose to have had an El Nino for the last 4 climate years. Now, 4X0=0. So, to any thinking person using the scientific method, any current forecast has zero certainty to it. I will use a real life example: Snake oil salesman shows up at Farmer A's door. He has the best dog gone product to increase yields that you ever saw!! It will only add 8% to your cost of production but you will achieve a 10% boost in yields. Farmer A, being a young pup has not honed the BS detector skills of his father. He tells his dad......I have this wonder product!!!! Being a patient father, he ponders how to teach his young son BS detector skills. Ahaaaaaaa. The old man tells his son. This is a wonderful product (doesn't want to be toooooo hard on the kid). Let's split a field in half. You can apply your wonder product on 1/2 the field, and we will do the other half using our current knowledge. Harvest time rolls around. Field is harvested, no difference in yield. Father doesn't want to put salt in wound. Salesman shows back up......tells son that he can't believe he isn't buying a new tractor with huge increase in yield. Tells son that he must have applied this wonderful product wrong and convinces him to try it again! Father smiles, repeat needed eh? Winter snows come, winter snows go. 4 years later, harvest is over. Son just can't figure out why his part of the field isn't out yielding the normal part. Father sits down....smiles.....looks at son......... Snake Oil! Even gave it FOUR strikes.... Son ponders...... Snake oil salesman shows up again...new IMPROVED product to increase yields. Son sits down with snake oil salesman. Offers him coffee.........asks him how much the Snake Oil salesman is going to PAY him to put this product on his field so he can tell his neighbors and friends how WONDERFUL this product is. Salesman knows he has been outed...finishes coffee defeated and drives away. Father puts arm around son...smiles..and says. "Well, at least we didn't lose the farm." Nough said............isn't it?
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