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Post by Ufasuperstorm on Mar 5, 2015 14:52:07 GMT
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Post by douglavers on Mar 6, 2015 1:15:25 GMT
I think I must have misread the graphic. Blue means warm? weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gifIf blue means cold [!], where is all that lovely warm surface water off the NW South American coast that I thought an El Nino produces?
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Post by nonentropic on Mar 6, 2015 1:31:33 GMT
how large are their ego's they are simply wrong, unless you move the goal posts.
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Post by graywolf on Mar 6, 2015 7:29:33 GMT
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Post by acidohm on Mar 6, 2015 17:31:19 GMT
Trying to argue last year was a record just lowers the tone!
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Post by cuttydyer on Mar 12, 2015 6:42:36 GMT
That's a lot of warm water sat out west if the walker Cell falls over and we see atmospheric cooperation really kick in....... another record temp year? Hmmmmmm...
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Post by graywolf on Mar 12, 2015 9:53:17 GMT
That's a lot of warm water sat out west if the walker Cell falls over and we see atmospheric cooperation really kick in....... another record temp year? Hmmmmmm... And what of the KW underlying that cool skin? With two storms, either side of the equator, feeding the current WWB the warm wave is being pushed ever eastward ever faster so expect that map to transform over the coming weeks. The reason we look at both ocean and atmosphere is to avoid making silly mistakes or to avoid surprises. The data is out there and all for free!
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Post by graywolf on Mar 12, 2015 19:40:30 GMT
Now looking like the strongest WWB since 97'? With the PDO positive breaking records for being the most positive over winter and feb besting the old 1941 record the Nino does look favourite to both strengthen but also gain atmospheric cooperation ( as the GFS MJO ensembles have been showing for over a week now?).
With about 4 times the volume of 'fuel' than was available to the 98' Super would anyone like to take a stab at the type of event we will see should the atmosphere come out to play?
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Post by acidohm on Mar 12, 2015 20:46:34 GMT
Graywolf...i sincerely think it's a good thing your here with your opinions, it's great to have a balance which tbh I have not always found on pro agw forums. Your clearly meticulous in your data interests and knowledge....
I just think that to be so excited about el nino and to tie this in with a broader anticipation of agw is misconceived. Many 'deniers' do not deny temperatures have been at a raised plateau for some time, many have their own explanations for this. But if as a supporter of agw u see an el nino event as a confirmation of CO2 warming, then perhaps this is a mistake?
El nino has been happening for a long time and will continue to, I can't see how this in anyway confirms agw? If it occurs, it will be the temp record in the years to come as averages are calculated, neither this nor the 'see sawing' of polar ice prove much in the short term....
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 12, 2015 23:30:02 GMT
Now looking like the strongest WWB since 97'? With the PDO positive breaking records for being the most positive over winter and feb besting the old 1941 record the Nino does look favourite to both strengthen but also gain atmospheric cooperation ( as the GFS MJO ensembles have been showing for over a week now?). With about 4 times the volume of 'fuel' than was available to the 98' Super would anyone like to take a stab at the type of event we will see should the atmosphere come out to play? We can only hope that this time you are correct Graywolf.
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 13, 2015 0:03:29 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 13, 2015 0:04:45 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 13, 2015 0:16:39 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 13, 2015 0:19:17 GMT
Now looking like the strongest WWB since 97'? With the PDO positive breaking records for being the most positive over winter and feb besting the old 1941 record the Nino does look favourite to both strengthen but also gain atmospheric cooperation ( as the GFS MJO ensembles have been showing for over a week now?). With about 4 times the volume of 'fuel' than was available to the 98' Super would anyone like to take a stab at the type of event we will see should the atmosphere come out to play? The Westerly Wind Burst is hitting a brick wall. Will the typhoons be enough to propagate this further east? Good question. 4 times the fuel? OK...help me here Graywolf, where are you getting that figure/idea? I would go with a <1.9, but 4 is one heck of a stretch.
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 13, 2015 0:21:34 GMT
www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/qccceclimatestatement/index.phpThe Science Division of the Department of Science, Information Technology and Innovation (DSITI) considers that, for most of Queensland, there is a near-normal probability of exceeding median rainfall over autumn (March to May). However, probabilities are higher for some northern areas. This view is based on an analysis of the historical relationship between Queensland rainfall and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Read more (PDF)* DSITI’s rainfall outlooks for Queensland are based on the current and projected state of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and on factors which alter the impact of ENSO on Queensland rainfall (i.e. the more slowly changing extra-tropical sea surface temperature (SST) pattern in the Pacific Ocean).
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