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Post by missouriboy on Mar 13, 2015 0:40:43 GMT
Sig. What is the web address (link) for these high-latitude SST Anomaly images? I can only find the ones that truncate below Greenland. Thanks.
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 13, 2015 1:35:02 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 13, 2015 1:35:33 GMT
I try to save the daily readings so I can see a longer term trend.
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Post by missouriboy on Mar 13, 2015 3:03:35 GMT
I try to save the daily readings so I can see a longer term trend. Thank you Sig! I'm going to start watching the AMOC and the AMO very closely. Interesting things adrift. Hope that Greenland high moves for ya. Here, spring started with a snap ... one day it wasn't ... the next it was ... and it seems to be staying. Wish I knew exactly what sparked the sudden change.
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 13, 2015 3:45:27 GMT
I try to save the daily readings so I can see a longer term trend. Thank you Sig! I'm going to start watching the AMOC and the AMO very closely. Interesting things adrift. Hope that Greenland high moves for ya. Here, spring started with a snap ... one day it wasn't ... the next it was ... and it seems to be staying. Wish I knew exactly what sparked the sudden change. I don't know your normal frost days etc. But do expect a clear cooling pattern in the next 6 days, and potentially the next 2 weeks. Related to that stuck Greenland High, is why the cooling will come back. It shifted east just a tiny bit, ushered in warm weather in the central US, but has moved back west, which puts us, at least up here, on the wrong side of warm.
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Post by graywolf on Mar 13, 2015 11:28:15 GMT
Should the nino now steam roller into a strong one I would not expect the mid west to see a good summer? If you remain under Francis's 'terribly tenacious trough' then at least we might secure a summer as the Jet then swings north over us?
By the end of this month we should know what lies in store for us as the walker Cell will either flip or not? The two storms feeding the westerly wind burst look to be doing a good job on pushing that Kelvin wave?
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 13, 2015 12:19:53 GMT
Should the nino now steam roller into a strong one I would not expect the mid west to see a good summer? If you remain under Francis's 'terribly tenacious trough' then at least we might secure a summer as the Jet then swings north over us? By the end of this month we should know what lies in store for us as the walker Cell will either flip or not? The two storms feeding the westerly wind burst look to be doing a good job on pushing that Kelvin wave? "Francis terribly tenacious trough". Good one Graywolf.
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Post by missouriboy on Mar 13, 2015 13:53:52 GMT
Should the nino now steam roller into a strong one I would not expect the mid west to see a good summer? If you remain under Francis's 'terribly tenacious trough' then at least we might secure a summer as the Jet then swings north over us? By the end of this month we should know what lies in store for us as the walker Cell will either flip or not? The two storms feeding the westerly wind burst look to be doing a good job on pushing that Kelvin wave? Don't know who coined the phrases 'terribly tenacious trough' and 'ridiculously resistant ridge', but it was being bandied about across the tube. So ... now we get a new index? The TTT-RRR index ... could be some kind of east-west function.
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Post by missouriboy on Mar 13, 2015 15:29:27 GMT
Thank you Sig! I'm going to start watching the AMOC and the AMO very closely. Interesting things adrift. Hope that Greenland high moves for ya. Here, spring started with a snap ... one day it wasn't ... the next it was ... and it seems to be staying. Wish I knew exactly what sparked the sudden change. I don't know your normal frost days etc. But do expect a clear cooling pattern in the next 6 days, and potentially the next 2 weeks. Related to that stuck Greenland High, is why the cooling will come back. It shifted east just a tiny bit, ushered in warm weather in the central US, but has moved back west, which puts us, at least up here, on the wrong side of warm. What happens up north doesn't stay up north. I constructed a north-south, station cross-section extending across ~9 degrees of latitude (~600 miles) from Manhattan, KS to Grand Forks, ND and plotted temperatures from 1931 to 2014. All major climate events, as expected, are traceable across the entire cross-section ... almost in lock-step. Do you suppose that the warm winter of 2000 (highest since the 30s) is directly related to the 1997 El Nino? A lagged response? It's a little messy for the northernmost stations. I'm still trying to find a good station that adequately represents eastern North Dakota.
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 13, 2015 15:44:52 GMT
I don't know your normal frost days etc. But do expect a clear cooling pattern in the next 6 days, and potentially the next 2 weeks. Related to that stuck Greenland High, is why the cooling will come back. It shifted east just a tiny bit, ushered in warm weather in the central US, but has moved back west, which puts us, at least up here, on the wrong side of warm. What happens up north doesn't stay up north. I constructed a north-south, station cross-section extending across ~9 degrees of latitude (~600 miles) from Manhattan, KS to Grand Forks, ND and plotted temperatures from 1931 to 2014. All major climate events, as expected, are traceable across the entire cross-section ... almost in lock-step. Do you suppose that the warm winter of 2000 (highest since the 30s) is directly related to the 1997 El Nino? A lagged response? It's a little messy for the northernmost stations. I'm still trying to find a good station that adequately represents eastern North Dakota. View AttachmentMissouriboy: Eastern North Dakota is a unique place. On the northern end of Eastern ND, we have an escarpment. It is a residual of the Red River flowing north when the glacier melted. The northern 2/3 of the counties are affected by this, and the further north you go the more pronounced it is. I would use Devils Lake as a proxy. It is over the escarpment, far enough west to not be too influenced by the sudden drop off in elevation. Yet, part of the actual rolling plains.
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 13, 2015 15:48:38 GMT
I don't know your normal frost days etc. But do expect a clear cooling pattern in the next 6 days, and potentially the next 2 weeks. Related to that stuck Greenland High, is why the cooling will come back. It shifted east just a tiny bit, ushered in warm weather in the central US, but has moved back west, which puts us, at least up here, on the wrong side of warm. What happens up north doesn't stay up north. I constructed a north-south, station cross-section extending across ~9 degrees of latitude (~600 miles) from Manhattan, KS to Grand Forks, ND and plotted temperatures from 1931 to 2014. All major climate events, as expected, are traceable across the entire cross-section ... almost in lock-step. Do you suppose that the warm winter of 2000 (highest since the 30s) is directly related to the 1997 El Nino? A lagged response? It's a little messy for the northernmost stations. I'm still trying to find a good station that adequately represents eastern North Dakota. View AttachmentYa know what is really interesting in your graph? The northern areas are experiencing a larger drop in temps than the southern areas. This is 100% in conflict with CO2 as a driver of climate. According to the models, the northern areas are suppose to have warming winters, while southern latitudes remain somewhat constant. Isn't it fun to see what pops up when you start playing with things? Have you had a chance to talk to your state climatologist yet?
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 13, 2015 15:52:32 GMT
(snip) With about 4 times the volume of 'fuel' than was available to the 98' Super would anyone like to take a stab at the type of event we will see should the atmosphere come out to play? Graywolf: I had asked you to quantify the 4 times the volume of 'fuel'Please share with us your source or calibrations attempted?
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Post by missouriboy on Mar 13, 2015 16:11:35 GMT
What happens up north doesn't stay up north. I constructed a north-south, station cross-section extending across ~9 degrees of latitude (~600 miles) from Manhattan, KS to Grand Forks, ND and plotted temperatures from 1931 to 2014. All major climate events, as expected, are traceable across the entire cross-section ... almost in lock-step. Do you suppose that the warm winter of 2000 (highest since the 30s) is directly related to the 1997 El Nino? A lagged response? It's a little messy for the northernmost stations. I'm still trying to find a good station that adequately represents eastern North Dakota. Ya know what is really interesting in your graph? The northern areas are experiencing a larger drop in temps than the southern areas. This is 100% in conflict with CO2 as a driver of climate. According to the models, the northern areas are suppose to have warming winters, while southern latitudes remain somewhat constant. Isn't it fun to see what pops up when you start playing with things? Have you had a chance to talk to your state climatologist yet? I noticed that. Also, the summer graphs, I think, show those cooling summers you mentioned. North of Sioux Falls, SD, the summer trend changes. I think our climatologist is still basking somewhere, but I'm about to get back with him.
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 13, 2015 16:48:31 GMT
Ya know what is really interesting in your graph? The northern areas are experiencing a larger drop in temps than the southern areas. This is 100% in conflict with CO2 as a driver of climate. According to the models, the northern areas are suppose to have warming winters, while southern latitudes remain somewhat constant. Isn't it fun to see what pops up when you start playing with things? Have you had a chance to talk to your state climatologist yet? I noticed that. Also, the summer graphs, I think, show those cooling summers you mentioned. North of Sioux Falls, SD, the summer trend changes. I think our climatologist is still basking somewhere, but I'm about to get back with him. View AttachmentI guess us northern folks didn't get the memo about our warming temperatures. Your graphs document what my Dad and Grandfather have expressed. The larger question becomes, how does GISSTEMP state that the USA is on a warming trend? Nothing you have presented is showing this. Good work!
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Post by icefisher on Mar 13, 2015 18:45:40 GMT
(snip) With about 4 times the volume of 'fuel' than was available to the 98' Super would anyone like to take a stab at the type of event we will see should the atmosphere come out to play? Graywolf: I had asked you to quantify the 4 times the volume of 'fuel'Please share with us your source or calibrations attempted? One possibility is he is multiplying it by four to account for his missed predictions of El Nino in 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014.
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