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Post by sigurdur on Feb 21, 2015 17:06:55 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 21, 2015 17:31:29 GMT
What is the DMI 80N reconstruction of temps going to tell you of what is occurring in the Arctic circle Naut? When you look at depth of permafrost melt over the Arctic circle you will see just how swift change has been? The one thing the DMI80N temp is good to illustrate is the way sea ice pegs back temps over the melt season. So long as there is ice, melting or otherwise, then the temp is pegged to around zero. remove that ice and temps soar. Keep an eye on land temps where the sea ice has retreated over summer and see the dramatic leaps in temp they have experienced since the ice went. Most years now post record high temps from stations around the Greenland coast. Graywolf: A point to consider. Iceland had the "big freeze" in the 1970's. This of course, was one of the metrics used by a few scientists to predict the onset of another Ice Age. Greenland and Iceland also had very warm temperatures in the 1930-1940 time period. Being of Icelandic decent, and calling the Icelandic Metro Office, I don't believe the GISTTemp adjustments in Greenland and Iceland at all, in regards to them cooling off the 1930's and 1940's. The Icelandic Met office called it for what it is..."Pure Bullshit" as you Americans would say. I don't know about the Danes, but I DO know about Icelanders. They are NOT dummies, and IF something was wrong, would be the 1st to admit that something is wrong and correct it. We literally have NO way of knowing what the ice export etc of the Fram was during the last Arctic Minimum. And make no mistake, for Capt Larson to sail the northern route of the NW passage required there to be substantially less ice than even today. OR, if not LESS ice, a total redistribution of said ice. And he did it without the aid of modern navigation NOR sailing aids. So, with the limited knowledge available, am I concerned in the least with the present state of Arctic Ice? Nope, I am not. Can we observe correlations to past KNOWN events in the Arctic to the present day? Yep. Are they similar? Yep.. Now to the larger picture/question. Why was the Eemian so much warmer than this Holocene? We all know that even tho Dr. Wegener was called a denier, out in left field past the wall, blindfolded to reality, etc that he was correct and all the flat earth types were wrong. So, we know that continents drift etc. But we also know that during the last 120,000 years there has not been a significant change in earth's continental placement. We think we understand orbital patterns. We know we know jack squat about the sun, even today. Lots of ideas, but very little firmware type proof. So, today what do we actually know? WE know that the Holocene is a cool interglacial. Do we know why? Nope. Being it is now long in the tooth, we are trying to compare it to MIS-11. Do we know why MIS-11 was also a cool interglacial? Nope. Do we know why it broke the Milankovitch cycle theory? Lasting 44,000 years? Nope. There are so many influences to climate that we DON'T know about, that to claim CO2 is a major influence, even tho CO2 rises long after temps fall, and doesn't rise till well after temps have risen, that CO2, a minor greenhouse glass, is NOT the "thermostat" of temps. I think the questions are so plain, the answers continue to hide, that Climate Scientists honestly can't see the forest for the trees. I don't see malfeance is most scientists. I see a lot of literature struggling to be published going against the grain, just as happened to Dr. Wegener. You might even be a climate scientist. I don't know. I know that you are not brain dead, but you have one heck of a set of blinders on. That indicates you have a stake in the game, as no one who appears to be as bright as you are, can really be this dense unless you are trying to project your "beliefs" rather than the "Science". Make sense? Everyone here knows I am just an old farmer, coveralls and all. So I don't know much, but by being a farmer and having snake oil salesmen frequent my door, I have learned when BS is BS. Make sense?
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 21, 2015 17:44:43 GMT
We also know that climate goes through step changes, in regards to temperatures. The 15+ year pause in the rise of surface temps is now getting longer in the tooth. Which direction will the next step take us? Some say down, others say up. The movie is a long playing one, be sure and have adequate popcorn.. I decided it was time to see what climate trends I might detect in my small part of North America, Columbia, Missouri. We lie very close to the dead center of the US. So, I downloaded 125 years of monthly climate data from the National weather service and started graphing. Interesting results. The data adjusters do not seem to have had much of an effect on our data, as you can see in the 5-year moving average of mean annual monthly temperatures (shown in first graph). Deviations from the 125-year normal were highest in the 1930s and 1950s, declined to below normal in the 1970s, then climbed back to above normal by 2004 ... still well below the 30-50 period. Since 2004, we seem to have gone flat. However, things get very interesting when you look at the same trends by season ... specifically summer vs winter, as shown in the second graph. Very cold winter periods seem to occur around break points in the solar cycle sunspot time series ... every 35 to 40 years. Summer temps continue to rise for 2 or 3 years past the winter temp high points, then they too collapse. We appear to be entering another of these periods...our winter temps have been dropping for the last 3 years, while our summer temps continue to rise. This winter will likely end up slightly below normal ... unlike areas further north and east that may be well below normal. Is the fat canary preparing to step up to the microphone? View AttachmentView AttachmentMy first attempt at posting images...hope they're large enough. Missouriboy: Your images are great! I still haven't figured out how do post an image. Very nice folks have tried to instruct me, but someplace in my feeble mind, a step gets lost and I just can't seem to master this task. I commend you! I also commend you on your findings. This is one of the reasons I stopped growing corn 3 years ago. Where I live, it is showing the same trend....a cooling trend. Winter temps up here flop around, slightly below normal but nothing extreme. Summer temps tho..they are cool. My friend at UND calls this the "season shift". Later springs and longer falls. What happens in the fall tho, is when we switch to winter, we switch to winter. And you had better have everything done and put away, cause you aren't going to get that 2nd or 3rd chance. (Yes, if we are lucky enough to get a Chinook, but those are becoming less frequent as well) Thank you for doing this work and sharing it!!! Now, to the next question. Always a question isn't it?
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 21, 2015 17:54:50 GMT
Next question: Recovery from cooler summers shows a short time period in your graph, then they go cooler again. Will the recovery presented in the recent past continue? Or will it start to slide cooler again? One more item that I suggest you graph is precip timing. That is affected by the sun. No known cause etc, but most deff a cycle that is tied to the sun. For a wide region analysis, may I suggest that you look at Mississippi historical stream flows? I don't know what rivers, other than that one, are somewhat close to where you live. For me, I used the Red River of the North for a basin wide analysis. Then I asked my local weather reporter for his records, (an older guy than me even, and very meticulous in his observations) for local precip to try and pull out a pattern. Tough to do I know, an old guy in overalls, but no one else was doing it... Just a few things I have done to try get an edge over the young guns who haven't been well schooled in areas of risk and decision making. (I was able to document the affect that the wind farm to my west was having on local precip patterns. I shared this with the NWS folks. They now recognize a "micro-climate" in my area because of this. They also state that to predict precip in my area is now like throwing darts at a very large dart board.) Just some ideas, take them for what they are worth being the ideas are free.
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 21, 2015 21:51:35 GMT
Ohoh, the phones are starting to ring for airline reservations for scientists to come out there and find out whats wrong with Missouri climate records. We have the data ... and we'll be looking for them!
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 22, 2015 0:05:11 GMT
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Post by icefisher on Feb 22, 2015 17:03:48 GMT
Missouriboy: Your images are great! I still haven't figured out how do post an image. Very nice folks have tried to instruct me, but someplace in my feeble mind, a step gets lost and I just can't seem to master this task. I commend you! Posting images has gotten easier as of late. Windows instructions follow: 1) Find the picture you want to post and "right" click your mouse on it. 2) Click the "copy image URL" with either right or left mouse button. Image URL is now in your clipboard. 3) Go back to your draft message (ideally in BBCode mode, see below) and insert cursor where you want the picture to go. 4) Either "ctrl V" with the keyboard or alternatively "right" click with mouse and select "paste". 5) Then highlight the URL you just pasted with the mouse or mousepad and click the little square picture frame at the top of the editing window. Its the third colored icon to the right of the large group of black and white icons. 6) Then respond to the popup box and click "insert image" and you are done. The advanced course is within the brackets of the resulting image code (can only be seen in BBCode mode) and outside any URL element like src="xx" you can add additional image sizing elements width="1200" height="250" where the number in the quotes is number of pixels you want the image to display at. You can resize images of other posters when you respond to them (resizing is only done in your responding post).
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 22, 2015 17:43:16 GMT
Thank you Icefisher. Next time I want to pot an image I will use your instructions, and see if I can finally master this task!
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 22, 2015 23:02:11 GMT
Missouriboy: Your images are great! I still haven't figured out how do post an image. Very nice folks have tried to instruct me, but someplace in my feeble mind, a step gets lost and I just can't seem to master this task. I commend you! I also commend you on your findings. This is one of the reasons I stopped growing corn 3 years ago. Where I live, it is showing the same trend....a cooling trend. Winter temps up here flop around, slightly below normal but nothing extreme. Summer temps tho..they are cool. My friend at UND calls this the "season shift". Later springs and longer falls. What happens in the fall tho, is when we switch to winter, we switch to winter. And you had better have everything done and put away, cause you aren't going to get that 2nd or 3rd chance. (Yes, if we are lucky enough to get a Chinook, but those are becoming less frequent as well) Thank you for doing this work and sharing it!!! Now, to the next question. Always a question isn't it? Thanks Sig. I spent a couple of hours trying figure out why my image attachments were so small ... then I found the help page ... and they said just click on it and you'll get a full-sized popup. Well ... duh! So, welcome to middle earth. Down here we're constantly being overrun, weather-wise, by either Yanks (Cold) or Rebs (Hot). The old folks always said ... if you don't like Missouri weather, just wait a minute, it'll change. There appear to be patterns in the changes. I'm attaching graphs comparing winter temperatures with spring summer and fall. They represent annual mean temperature deviations from the 125-year normal for each season, and all show the 5-year running deviation averages, the 1-year seasonal mean deviations and the solar cycle max and min sunspot counts. We too may be starting to see 'season shift' although it may be slightly different than yours. Our winter temps (as measured by seasonal deviation from long-term seasonal mean values) seem to show a pattern of regularly spaced cold winters (2+ deg. C) below normal that occur just before or just after bottoms in the longer-term solar max patterns. Our longer term pattern appears to be downward since the 1930s to the tune of about 3-C over 80 years. Our most recent warm-winter period peaked in about 2000, and has been declining steadily since then. Very cold winters in this time series appear to occur quickly and hang around for 2 or 3 years, after which they have recovered quickly ... BUT, these have all been during periods of INCREASING solar activity. There is no comparable record of what happens if solar activity continues to decline. Our fall temperature trends, which had looked very similar to summer trends prior to 2000, now look more like the recent winter trend. They have turned over and are declining. Spring temperatures have not been as volatile as winter and summer in the first 100 years since 1890, although with a slight downward trend ... but since about 1997, they have increased by about 2 degrees C. However, the last seven years of this trend (the 5-yr avg) is heavily affected by the spring of 2012, which was the warmest in the recorded time series. Without 2012, the last few years of spring would also be heading 'south' as you can see in the annual values. Hot summers and cold winters appear to be regularly coincident in this time series and their trend since the 30s has been downward to the tune of about 2+ degrees C. The summer of 2012 was not nearly as hot as the 3 previous highs ... and the winter of 2013-14 may not be the worst that we could see shortly. While a statistician might say that our sample size is rather small, it does appear to contain patterns, and those patterns here in middle earth do not look like a global warming scenario. I'm going to look at the precipitation patterns ... and I'll post the results.
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Post by Ratty on Feb 22, 2015 23:10:47 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 23, 2015 0:06:26 GMT
ratty: Where those sexual exploits on the many paid vacations to tropical places to discuss climate change? Altho, if Al Gore was there the "tropic" part potentially left. Cancun hated his visit!
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 23, 2015 0:13:08 GMT
Missouriboy: Your images are great! I still haven't figured out how do post an image. Very nice folks have tried to instruct me, but someplace in my feeble mind, a step gets lost and I just can't seem to master this task. I commend you! I also commend you on your findings. This is one of the reasons I stopped growing corn 3 years ago. Where I live, it is showing the same trend....a cooling trend. Winter temps up here flop around, slightly below normal but nothing extreme. Summer temps tho..they are cool. My friend at UND calls this the "season shift". Later springs and longer falls. What happens in the fall tho, is when we switch to winter, we switch to winter. And you had better have everything done and put away, cause you aren't going to get that 2nd or 3rd chance. (Yes, if we are lucky enough to get a Chinook, but those are becoming less frequent as well) Thank you for doing this work and sharing it!!! Now, to the next question. Always a question isn't it? Thanks Sig. I spent a couple of hours trying figure out why my image attachments were so small ... then I found the help page ... and they said just click on it and you'll get a full-sized popup. Well ... duh! So, welcome to middle earth. Down here we're constantly being overrun, weather-wise, by either Yanks (Cold) or Rebs (Hot). The old folks always said ... if you don't like Missouri weather, just wait a minute, it'll change. There appear to be patterns in the changes. I'm attaching graphs comparing winter temperatures with spring summer and fall. They represent annual mean temperature deviations from the 125-year normal for each season, and all show the 5-year running deviation averages, the 1-year seasonal mean deviations and the solar cycle max and min sunspot counts. We too may be starting to see 'season shift' although it may be slightly different than yours. Our winter temps (as measured by seasonal deviation from long-term seasonal mean values) seem to show a pattern of regularly spaced cold winters (2+ deg. C) below normal that occur just before or just after bottoms in the longer-term solar max patterns. Our longer term pattern appears to be downward since the 1930s to the tune of about 3-C over 80 years. Our most recent warm-winter period peaked in about 2000, and has been declining steadily since then. Very cold winters in this time series appear to occur quickly and hang around for 2 or 3 years, after which they have recovered quickly ... BUT, these have all been during periods of INCREASING solar activity. There is no comparable record of what happens if solar activity continues to decline. Our fall temperature trends, which had looked very similar to summer trends prior to 2000, now look more like the recent winter trend. They have turned over and are declining. Spring temperatures have not been as volatile as winter and summer in the first 100 years since 1890, although with a slight downward trend ... but since about 1997, they have increased by about 2 degrees C. However, the last seven years of this trend (the 5-yr avg) is heavily affected by the spring of 2012, which was the warmest in the recorded time series. Without 2012, the last few years of spring would also be heading 'south' as you can see in the annual values. Hot summers and cold winters appear to be regularly coincident in this time series and their trend since the 30s has been downward to the tune of about 2+ degrees C. The summer of 2012 was not nearly as hot as the 3 previous highs ... and the winter of 2013-14 may not be the worst that we could see shortly. While a statistician might say that our sample size is rather small, it does appear to contain patterns, and those patterns here in middle earth do not look like a global warming scenario. I'm going to look at the precipitation patterns ... and I'll post the results. View Attachment View Attachment View AttachmentYou are doing great work, which help with probabilities. Actually, you will be able to make a better decision regarding the 2014 farm program because of your work. I am really looking forward to what you see in the precip pattern that gets super imposed on the temperature pattern. This is the kind of work that the local extension agent should be doing to earn his/her pay. I did talk to your state meteorologist a few years ago. It was in regards to some studies he had done that I read in a farm paper. If that feller is still in that position, I can only recommend that you talk to him. He actually knew Kevin Trenbeth. Was a smart guy.
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Post by glennkoks on Feb 23, 2015 4:14:25 GMT
I hope my sexual exploits never come into the climate change debate. Because all the heat created would certainly cause "warming"!
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 23, 2015 5:50:17 GMT
I hope my sexual exploits never come into the climate change debate. Because all the heat created would certainly cause "warming"! You have sexual exploits Glenn?
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Post by Ratty on Feb 23, 2015 12:38:28 GMT
I hope my sexual exploits never come into the climate change debate. Because all the heat created would certainly cause "warming"! Try applying baby oil. I understand that you get "lightning" when the lights are out .... PS: Just something I was told. Off topic?
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