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Post by sigurdur on Feb 24, 2015 0:26:59 GMT
Certainly Republicans should not be throwing stones, but my observation has been that liberal figures are worse. Almost like clockwork. Scandal-wise, the scales tip in the direction of Australian Labor Party (" Democrats"). Our Liberal Party (" Republicans") are, perhaps, slightly better behaved .... IMNSHO PS: The alignment above to US parties is only a rough approximation. Ok.no playing around now. Saw a chart of Aussie temps today that showed that it has gotten so hot down under that you can fry eggs on the street from 6:00 am to 11:00 pm. Now, looking at the chart.....is my memory going totally bonkers..but didn't Australia have some pretty hot temps in the 1800's? Seems my old history racking brain keeps coming back to some period that was actually hot and dry for a LONG time. Or is my brain fizzled cause it has been so warm here?
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Post by nonentropic on Feb 24, 2015 4:19:02 GMT
They are hoping that you are dead, silly, or just poorly memory equipped.
Its people like you that give the ruling class so much trouble. there must be legislation to sort this!
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Post by douglavers on Feb 24, 2015 10:16:35 GMT
Sigurdur, from an Oz Gov site:
The "Federation Drought", 1895-1902 Many of Australia's worst droughts occur when one or two very dry years follow several years of generally below average rainfall. Such was the case in the so-called "Federation drought", which began in the mid 1890s and reached its devastating climax in late 1901 and 1902. The five years leading up to Federation (January 1901) saw intermittent dry spells over most of the country, particularly in 1897 and 1899; in most of Queensland, dry conditions were virtually unbroken from 1897. Most other parts of the country had reasonable rain in 1900 and early 1901, but with the coming of spring 1901 very dry weather set in across eastern Australia. By February 1902 concerns were expressed about Sydney's water supply, and the New South Wales Government declared 26 February a day of "humiliation and prayer" for rain in that state. Similar declarations were made in Queensland in April and Victoria in September, as the drought worsened. Despite the pleas for divine intervention, things only got worse. Though there was some winter-spring rain in Victoria and NSW, cold weather nullified its usefulness. In Queensland, enormous sheep and cattle losses were being reported by August. On some far western properties, cattle numbers plummeted from tens of thousands to mere hundreds. Rivers in western Queensland dried up; at Bourke, the Darling River virtually ran dry. Further south, towns near the Murray River such as Mildura, Balranald and Deniliquin - at that time dependent on the river for transport - suffered badly. The Australian wheat crop was all but lost, with close to the lowest yields of the century.
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Post by graywolf on Feb 24, 2015 10:35:22 GMT
siberiantimes.com/science/casestudy/news/n0127-dozens-of-mysterious-new-craters-suspected-in-northern-russia/So more of the blighters cropped up/ Are these the first cracks in the methane dam before we see a serious blowout? We have to remember that these deposits run out under the East Siberian Sea and that we have been seeing ice loss there for over 20years. Shakhova was even shocked at the temps she found over winter there last year as it meant the off shore permafrosts were seeing high (relative) temps there all year round. Could off shore gas be migrating back along fault zones and then popping these features? The russians, and there gas investors, seem a bit worried?
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Post by nautonnier on Feb 24, 2015 11:28:54 GMT
To raise the tone a little a quote from WUWT:
"this freeze is caused by a Crosby wave, “Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow”."
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Post by Ratty on Feb 24, 2015 23:10:28 GMT
[ Snip ]Ok.no playing around now. Saw a chart of Aussie temps today that showed that it has gotten so hot down under that you can fry eggs on the street from 6:00 am to 11:00 pm. Now, looking at the chart.....is my memory going totally bonkers..but didn't Australia have some pretty hot temps in the 1800's? Seems my old history racking brain keeps coming back to some period that was actually hot and dry for a LONG time. Or is my brain fizzled cause it has been so warm here? I see you found reference to the Federation Drought but we have had plenty of droughts - and floods - over the years, like most other countries. The current drought in the central West of my state (Queensland) is a nasty one but .... it will rain eventually, as it always does. There is some government assistance available and we have a few efficient charities that concentrate on the land. Our Country Women's Association (CWA) collects money and distributes it directly to farmers & graziers in need. That way, local businesses get the benefit of the assistance too. "Buy a Bale" is another. A thousand years ago, I taught out West, understand some of the problems and contribute to both. This poster - available here Australia's Variable Rainfall - gives some idea of the dryness of our continent: Aside: I measured 400mm (16inches) of rain in my gauge between last Friday afternoon and Sunday morning! I'm near the coast not far from Moreton Bay.
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 25, 2015 3:38:33 GMT
Gosh Ratty, who would have thought that ENSO and Australian weather would have a potential link? 16 inches in that short of a time period would have even where I live under water. OF course, I would be watching all the water running out of the hills as we call them.....and then trying to go by my place.... Where I live is the highest spot on 2 quarters, but even high spots in the valley can become low spots. Have never had water in the yard, but there is always a 1st time. Just think how good your yard will look shortly! Get thunder and lightning with that rain as well?
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 25, 2015 6:54:08 GMT
www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/extreme-cold-midwest-east-to-ease-march/42843689Additional waves of frigid air will continue to flow southward out of Canada and into the central and eastern United States this week, but there are indications the worst of the cold will ease up next week. More than 175 million people from the Upper Midwest to the interior South and the Northeast will have to endure more extreme cold conditions this week. Temperatures on one to several nights will dip below zero F from the Dakotas, Minnesota and Michigan to Virginia, New York and Maine.
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 25, 2015 7:55:00 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 25, 2015 17:24:16 GMT
You are doing great work, which help with probabilities. Actually, you will be able to make a better decision regarding the 2014 farm program because of your work. I am really looking forward to what you see in the precip pattern that gets super imposed on the temperature pattern. This is the kind of work that the local extension agent should be doing to earn his/her pay. I did talk to your state meteorologist a few years ago. It was in regards to some studies he had done that I read in a farm paper. If that feller is still in that position, I can only recommend that you talk to him. He actually knew Kevin Trenbeth. Was a smart guy. Do you remember his name? Or I'll just call Jefferson City and ask for the State Meteorologist. Well Sig … here it is. Quite an odyssey. In six graphs (3 in this post and 3 in the following) I'm displaying annual and seasonal mean temperature (5-yr avg – 3 is eye clutter) together with annual and seasonal mean precipitation (3-yr avg.) over-plotted with the full sunspot time series (annual) in 2 graphs and an AMO annualized time series in 4 graphs. All temp and precip series have been converted to percent of 125-year normal. Sunspot values have been have been 'fit' to the high-low temp-precip ranges. The AMO index is fit with its zero value at 100. I picked up the AMO series since it is believed to be a large contributor (in its warm phase) to mid-western drought. Precipitation values are in BLUE and temperature in RED. The following are merely observations as there are many factors that are likely unaccounted for and that we don't understand. Graph 1. Annual Temperature and Precipitation Patterns w/annual sunspot counts The drought years of the 1930s and 40s stand out...high annualized temperatures with low annualized precipitation. In the later part of the series (since 1930), above average precipitation peaks appear to correlate well with low sunspot periods between solar cycles. Periods of below normal precipitation in general correlate well with periods in and around solar cycle maximums. This relationship appears to be different prior to 1930. Graph 2. Annual Temperature and Precipitation Patterns w/AMO index and solar max locations. Well, the AMO certainly appears to be related to precipitation values. The droughts of the 1930s and 40s appear to begin and end at the beginning and the end of the AMO warm phase with a spike in precipitation in the middle when the index declines. The AMO cool phases prior to 1930 and after 1964 both have generally higher average precipitation and their low values are closer to normal. The 1964-97 cool phase has an overall upward slope in values. The latest AMO warm phase has generally lower precipitation than the preceding cool phase except for the 2008-10 period. Graph 3. Summer Temperature and Precipitation Patterns w/AMO index and solar max locations. Summer high temperature peaks do not always correspond with solar cycle max and precipitation peaks do not always correspond with solar cycle minimums. Negative AMO values (cool) still appear to be associated with higher precipitation values although there is certainly no one-to-one relationship. Continued on next post.
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 25, 2015 17:35:33 GMT
You are doing great work, which help with probabilities. Actually, you will be able to make a better decision regarding the 2014 farm program because of your work. I am really looking forward to what you see in the precip pattern that gets super imposed on the temperature pattern. This is the kind of work that the local extension agent should be doing to earn his/her pay. I did talk to your state meteorologist a few years ago. It was in regards to some studies he had done that I read in a farm paper. If that feller is still in that position, I can only recommend that you talk to him. He actually knew Kevin Trenbeth. Was a smart guy. Continuation...... Graph 4. Spring Temperature and Precipitation Patterns w/AMO index and solar max locations. Spring temperatures (at least the 5-yr avg) do not have as great a range as summer values. Low spring precipitation values are quite dramatic across the entire range of the 1930s and 50s drought periods. Most major high precipitation periods do appear to be associated with solar mins and most low periods with solar max after 1910. The cool AMO period of 1964-97 had consistently above normal precipitation and the current warm AMO has had generally less. Graph 5. Fall Temperature and Precipitation Patterns w/AMO index and solar max locations. The intensity and regularity of the fall precipitation patterns are quite dramatic. The warm AMO associated drought periods are apparent, although the fall below average spike in the 1930s is confined to the later part of that period (whereas the summer negative spike was confined to the early part). In general, the spring observations seem to hold for fall as well. Graph 6. Winter Temperature and Precipitation Patterns w/AMO index and solar max locations. The only true differences I can see in the winter patterns are the very dry winters immediately preceding the warm 1930-64 AMO period and the lack of intense precipitation spikes since 1990. _ _
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 25, 2015 17:58:34 GMT
Missouri Boy, Lots to look at, and I don't have time right now to analyze as you have.
But isn't it amazing?
I don't remember the fellows name....Wish I did.
This is the type of work that you should talk to your state guy about, as well as extension office if you want to share it with neighbors. The old adage of knowledge is power always applies to management decisions.
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 25, 2015 18:11:31 GMT
One thing that Drew Learner knows, which he has shared, is the AMO has more influence on US crop areas than the El Nino/La Nina. At least to long term trends.
That is obvious in your graph, confirmed by him. The AMO even has an effect on California, altho no one in the wild climate camp wants to admit this.
At this time, I have not read anything to show that anyone really understands the climate coupling dynamics, in regards to what the AMO can do. I find it a fascinating area to study tho. Maybe your state climatologist has found something in regards to how the AMO affects us? My buddy at UND can't find it, but he knows it is there. He has applied for grants, but being it isn't tied to AGW they keep getting refused.
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 25, 2015 19:47:59 GMT
One thing that Drew Learner knows, which he has shared, is the AMO has more influence on US crop areas than the El Nino/La Nina. At least to long term trends. That is obvious in your graph, confirmed by him. The AMO even has an effect on California, altho no one in the wild climate camp wants to admit this. At this time, I have not read anything to show that anyone really understands the climate coupling dynamics, in regards to what the AMO can do. I find it a fascinating area to study tho. Maybe your state climatologist has found something in regards to how the AMO affects us? My buddy at UND can't find it, but he knows it is there. He has applied for grants, but being it isn't tied to AGW they keep getting refused. Perhaps he should use the reverse psychology approach. We were always (mostly) taught that a negative result could be just as important as a positive one in science. Thus a study objective of how the AMO and its links to, and effects on, our very important agricultural sector are being adversely affected by anthropogenic carbon emissions might get a grant, whose important negative results might be ... NOT... with lots of other good info on how the AMO really functions. There's more than one way to skin a bean-counter.
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 25, 2015 20:40:34 GMT
Missouriboy: Dr. Osborne got so pissed that he started Meridian Weather. I see him at farm forums now, and always wait to talk to him till after, as one time when I was asking questions, I could tell most eyes glazed over in the room, but he was really on a roll. He tried all sorts of angles, but he is a known skeptic in academic circles......so...his applications got no where. He never denies that CO2 is a greenhouse gas, but he will argue till he his blue in the face that current GCM's produce much of merit. But then, he is an Atmospheric Scientist why a Physics PhD.
Oh well......good luck when you talk to your state meteorologist. I bet he will be able to aid you.
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