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Post by missouriboy on Feb 28, 2015 5:44:28 GMT
Perhaps we may need to add the Missouri West Central Region to the list. You decide ... here are the data. I grabbed the Columbia MO data that I used for my time series data from the heart of the archives. Today I downloaded the US annual temperature data and that for the MO West Central Region (same as used ont the drought monitor) from the NOAA quick-plot website ... had to download them one month at a time. Interestingly, when you select for Columbia MO they only display the data for 1970 onward. Wonder why since we go back to 1890. Anyway, I downloaded, assembled and compared to my 'deep throat' data. Now, I didn't expect them to be the same, given I'm only one small location in a much larger universe ... you can see for yourselves what i FOUND. Comparisons of the deviations for each area from its area-specific normal yields negative correlation ... the farther back in time you go, the larger the difference between series. Sure looks like the past has been melting. Ok ... let's look closer to home. Shirley the region that Columbia is located in will be closer ... we're on the east side of this region. Here goes.... Shirley wasn't home ... but her evil sister was. Got the same problem in my own back yard. Perhaps any one who wants to save the older, unadjusted data, might want to start acquiring before our past disappears. No wonder every year is a new record.
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 28, 2015 19:02:02 GMT
I hate to say it - because I work with them - but I wouldn't trust anything from some parts of NASA or NOAA. They have no ethics and they have nothing to lose by lying. Gavin quite happily stirred the pot claiming that 2014 was the hottest year ever. It was only the blogs that highlighted that he had no backing for that and had actually buried plausible deniability into the report that the press releases were based on. Won't affect his pay or pension. If he'd been a CFO he would have been taken to court for fraud. The real world will eventually catch up with them - what is it that they can gain in the short term that makes dissembling worthwhile? I know i'm taking a harsh line, but ... I've been a data guy my whole professional career. When numbers mattered (money, etc.) I was always impressed with the local political types I worked with ... republicans or democrats ... didn't matter ... none of them ever asked me to lie, or to "adjust" the results. I was taught (at home) that honesty and integrity were everything ... the essence of your personal honor, without which, you were less than pond scum. I always hoped that, if seriously pressed, I would refuse to tarnish my personal ethic. I was never seriously pushed. My Christian values say forgive the bastards ... my other side hopes for a firing squad. We can only hope that real world DOES catch up with them in a meaningful way.
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 1, 2015 1:26:26 GMT
Some seem to think they serve humanity. Another item I have now come to accept. The adjusters actually BELIEVE the adjustments they make are useful.
And then.............they actually BELIEVE their adjustments are CORRECT!!
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Post by missouriboy on Mar 1, 2015 15:52:40 GMT
Some seem to think they serve humanity. Another item I have now come to accept. The adjusters actually BELIEVE the adjustments they make are useful. And then.............they actually BELIEVE their adjustments are CORRECT!! Human justification ... standard throughout history ... the 'good German' defense (not picking on Germans, plenty of blame to go around)... Even ISIS believes they're right, after all, they're only apostates ... the only good denier is a dead denier... General Sheridan would be proud of them. OK, it doesn't rise to the level of genocide ... perhaps Yankee Puritan paternalism ... "they don't know what's good for them, but WE do!" There is no shame in a "righteous" cause.
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Post by nautonnier on Mar 1, 2015 16:00:12 GMT
Some seem to think they serve humanity. Another item I have now come to accept. The adjusters actually BELIEVE the adjustments they make are useful. And then.............they actually BELIEVE their adjustments are CORRECT!! Human justification ... standard throughout history ... the 'good German' defense (not picking on Germans, plenty of blame to go around)... Even ISIS believes they're right, after all, they're only apostates ... the only good denier is a dead denier... General Sheridan would be proud of them. OK, it doesn't rise to the level of genocide ... perhaps Yankee Puritan paternalism ... "they don't know what's good for them, but WE do!" There is no shame in a "righteous" cause. Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity. Martin Luther King Jr. (1929 - 1968), Strength to Love, 196
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 1, 2015 17:25:03 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Mar 2, 2015 19:42:37 GMT
For Sig and all others that would care to offer an opinion I will title it: IS THIS THE ANATOMY OF A FRAUD??? Sig...we were discussing the mean annual temperature data for Grand Forks. You had a strong feeling that there was something wrong in dataville. Note the trends of Mean Monthly Annual Temp. and Mean Monthly Maximum Temp... historical data all largely lower than the last twenty years. . However ... note mean monthly cooling degree days ... the 1930s are definitely higher than anything after 1990. How could this be? Since CDD are derived from daily temperature data. Very interesting! So, I tried a little test. Since CDD is definitely related to temperature in the warm months, I created April-Sept. mean annual temperatures and plotted mean annual CDD against them. I expect a correlation. Hence, the following... Vuella ... nicely fit linear relationship ... only surprised that its not tighter and the r2 isn't higher. So ... is there any temporal clustering in the deviations from the regression line? You betcha! This is not a random distribution!!!! When predicted CDD is subtracted from recorded CDD we see positive deviations in the early years and negative deviations in recent years. Does this second order equation document fraud? Is this the mark of clumsy vermin? Or .... did I do something wrong?
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 2, 2015 19:46:26 GMT
missoouriboy: Brilliant!!!!!
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 2, 2015 20:04:19 GMT
What am I doing WRONG???
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 2, 2015 20:11:09 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 2, 2015 20:41:25 GMT
Well, just got off phone. NWS no longer has the actual records. They used to have them.
Now..if I want to see them it is call NCDC and get them.
Will I live long enough for that request to get filled?
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Post by walnut on Mar 2, 2015 20:41:31 GMT
Re that chart- Is there really a problem? Obama said that climate change is the biggest problem of our time.
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 2, 2015 20:48:36 GMT
WEll, depends on how high the heating bill is....
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Post by missouriboy on Mar 2, 2015 21:17:44 GMT
Well, just got off phone. NWS no longer has the actual records. They used to have them. Now..if I want to see them it is call NCDC and get them. Will I live long enough for that request to get filled? What about your friend at the university? Does he have any old data files?
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Post by walnut on Mar 2, 2015 21:24:28 GMT
WEll, depends on how high the heating bill is.... Yeah, it seems to be 'changing' alright, in Boston, Maine, Toronto, etc.
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