The satellite measurements must really be off eh?
I dunno Sig! I think it has more to do with those who control the message than the satellites. Of course ya knew that!
There are two elements that are critical to the message in this article. #1. The deviations from normal are higher than ever!
#2. March 2015 is the hottest March ever (or at least in the top 5). (Martha! Round up the children and grab the bug-out bag!!!!)
So, as an analyst, how do I support the message? Assuming I'm only interested in land stations in my two cross sections.
First, I pick the coldest 30-year normal I can find. Presto, 1951-80 does nicely. Because, if I choose, let's say, 1981-2010,
the deviations don't look so scary. (Hold up there Martha! I smell something funny!)
The 1980s and 1990s are 1 to 2 degrees C warmer than the 1950s and 1960s for these stations, and hence, the deviations
from normal are 1 to 2 degrees lower. Now that wasn't hard. After all, changing a base period is acceptable ... AND we noted it
right there on the map.
March March March
2015 2015 2015 Normal Station Station
TempC Normal Normal Deviation Dev. Dev.
NCDC Data 1951-80 1981-2010 (3 - 2) (1 - 2) (1 - 3)
East Section
Columbia MO 7.72 5.61 7.0 1.39 2.11 0.72
Kirksville. MO 5.89 3.78 4.93 0.95 2.11 1.16
Ottumwa, IA 4.44 2.28 3.98 1.7 2.16 0.46
Waterloo, IA 1.94 -0.23 1.98 2.21 2.17 -0.04
Rochester, MN 0.28 -2.21 -0.29 1.92 2.49 0.57
Duluth,MN -0.78 -5.07 -3.37 1.7 4.29 2.59
West Section
Emporia, KS 8.67 5.73 7.02 1.29 2.94 1.65
Manhattan, KS 7.83 5.85 7.23 1.38 1.98 0.60
Lincoln, NE 6.28 2.77 4.50 1.73 3.51 1.78
Sioux City, IA 5.56 0.94 2.68 1.75 4.62 2.88
Sioux Falls, SD 3.56 -0.92 0.81 1.73 4.48 2.75
Fargo, ND 0.83 -4.54 -2.39 2.15 5.37 3.22
Grand Forks, ND -0.61 -5.07 -3.07 2.00 4.96 2.46
Second, how do I get March 2015 into the five hottest March's of all time? As you can see, that's not easy
as they rank only in the top 1/3 to 1/2 of the NCDC historical time series (I'm assuming that is what was used?)
The table below shows the top 10 ranked years for March temperatures at these stations (Rank and year followed by temp).
The year 2012 was hot (either 1 or 2 at every station)... all stations have 1, 2 or 3 years from the 2000s in the top 10.
Duluth has 5, but its time series only goes back to 1948. Of the 130 places across 13 stations, over half of the
observations are from 1900 to 1949. But, hey, that's weather!
Columbia, MO Kirksville. MO Ottumwa, IA Waterloo, IA Rochester, MN Duluth,MN
1 2012 15.4 2012 11.8 1910 12.1 2012 10.6 2012 9.5 2012 4
2 1946 13.3 1910 11.6 2012 11.9 1945 8.1 1910 6.1 2010 2.8
3 1910 13.2 1946 11.6 1946 10.4 1946 7.1 1946 5.8 2000 0.8
4 1938 11.5 1945 10.4 1914 9.7 1938 6.2 1973 4 1968 0
5 2007 11.5 1938 10.1 1945 9.4 2000 5.8 2000 4 1973 -0.1
6 1945 11.3 1921 9.2 1938 8.6 1921 5.5 1945 3.9 1987 -0.2
7 1921 11.1 1918 9.1 1921 8.3 1973 5.4 1977 3.7 1977 -0.3
8 1907 10.9 1973 8.3 1907 8.1 1907 4.6 2010 3.5 2015 -0.78
9 1918 10.5 2007 8.2 1927 7.8 2007 4.6 1918 2.8 1985 -1
10 1935 10.1 1907 8.1 2007 7.7 1977 4.5 1968 2.6 2007 -1.4
Emporia, KS Manhattan, KS Lincoln, NE Sioux City, IA Sioux Falls, SD Fargo, ND Grand Forks, ND
1 1910 14.7 2012 14.1 2012 12.8 2012 11.8 2012 9.9 2012 5.3 1910 5.8
2 2012 14.6 1910 13.4 1910 12 1910 11.3 1946 5.5 1910 4.9 2012 3.9
3 1907 13 2007 12.6 1946 11.3 1946 9.8 1938 5.1 1918 2.3 1973 2.2
4 1946 12.9 1946 12.5 1945 9 1918 7.7 1945 4.6 1973 2.2 1918 1.8
5 2007 12.3 1905 11 2007 8.9 1921 7.3 1968 4.3 2010 1.9 2000 1.7
6 1905 11.5 1935 11 1905 8.6 1905 7.2 1973 4.3 2000 1.8 1945 1.3
7 1935 11.2 1938 10.8 1938 8.6 1945 7 2000 4.1 1945 1.7 1981 1.2
8 1938 11 1945 10.8 1918 8.3 1938 6.9 2007 3.9 1938 1.5 1946 1.1
9 1921 10.9 1907 10.7 1921 8.3 1935 6.5 1963 3.8 1946 1.5 1938 1
10 1945 10.9 1921 10.6 1935 8.1 1968 6.5 1935 3.6 1961 1.4 1961 0.4
So ... I ignore history older than, let's say 1950. After all, that's old news. And I still can't get 2015
into the top 10 except at a few stations. At that point, if I have ANY personal honor, I tell the Boss,
"I can't do this without committing fraud!" And?
? U finish the story.
What is sad is that MOST folks don't have a clue what is going on! It is just hot....hot....hot....
As I look at snow outside my window on the 22nd of April.......again.
Hell, it was warmer in the 1970's!!!